Somehow I have convinced myself that the LIRR will be more reliable than the "F" train. Maybe I'm in a dream world.

We're moving to Atlantic Beach, one town west of Long Beach, one town east of the Rockaways. I'll have to look into flooding in less-than-hurricane conditions.

Thanks for the tips.

Greetings!

First: There are many internet articles that are commenting and documenting the problems with our national power grid. I identified "loss of power" as the Number 1 threat that I faced when I lived on Staten Island, And I worked on Governors Island while my DW worked on the 17th floor of the World Trade Center/North Tower. Power supplies are said to become a distinct problem during the summer of 2009 ranging from brownouts to blackouts in many parts of this country. NYC and the Northeast US does not have a good track record in this category.

Second:
I agree about the folding bicycles that have already been mentioned. You can cross the East River via the Brooklyn Bridge.

I also agree that a truck would be more useful across the entire spectrum than a small car would be.

One friend of mine used to carry a heavy wooden walking cane topped with a large brass knob when we'd go to certain parts of the city. I always had my Buck 110 on my belt (early 1980's). It might be a good idea to keep such a walking cane at your office.

Third:
I would think that the best Bug Out route would be via the Varrazano Narrows Bridge to Staten Island and then across the Arthur Kill to NJ. That would run you through the least populated areas of the Megalopolis and get you into the countryside in the least amount of distance. A route that is definitely worth looking at. Otherwise I would look at getting through Brooklyn and Queens to the Throggs Neck Bridge and then you can head in 1 of many directions.

If you know of someone, or if you already own a large enough boat, I'd definitely include that as another Bug-Out option!!

Fourth:
Water has traditionally been the biggest of many weaknesses associated with possible complications involving the loss of electricity in the Big Apple. You might want to keep up to 2 weeks of water on hand at all times.

Blast's "Home Emergency Plan Binder" is definitely worth developing for your Au Pair to check for emergency plans that include instructions for her to follow.

Fifth:
On the subject of "friends" (a very dangerous word), I would sound out those work acquaintances that live near you that also commute to Manhattan. You might eventually find a few that would be interested in banding together in time of an emergency in Manhattan to work y'all's way home from work, as a team. There is some safety in numbers as long as the numbers are not too high.

Just some of my thoughts!

What part of Brooklyn? Park Slope?

I miss it sometimes - it was my first neighborhood in New York, then I eventually ended up nearby in Windsor Terrace.

Generator hooked into the house panel and water storage are both great ideas for long-term problems. Sounds like you've already got the food idea worked out. One thing I found out the hard way was that when it comes to a lot of foods, my kids are much pickier than I am. Therefore, my expanded food pantry/storage has a lot of what ends up being comfort food for them. Less tuna, more spaghettios with meatballs, the soup is almost exclusively chicken noodle, canned stew is OK but canned chicken and dumplings is not...etc. A lot of trial and error has shown me that we'll be eating a narrow menu if we have to dip into our stores.

As far as getting out of Manhattan, I have to say that the folding bikes was one of the first things I thought of, but a beater bike is also a great idea - IF you have somewhere at work you can keep them. A daypack ready to go that you can slide into an empty deep desk drawer or bottom filing cabinet drawer would be a good idea, too. Something along the lines of the much-discussed "get home bag" for both you and your wife. High on the list for the bag (and for your EDC) should be a flashlight or two. In the blackout, I was stuck on the F at Smith and 9th - luckily outside in the sunshine rather than in the middle of a tunnel or while under the river. By the time we got back onto the platform and ready to go down, the entire interior of the station was pitch black - no emergency lights or anything. Only a very small handful of people (that I saw) had flashlights of any kind. Imagine being in the tunnel with a packed train and then trying to get out in pitch black.

Another helpful item was a regular, cheap AM/FM radio with earbuds. The power went out, the train stopped, the conductor had no info for us for 20 minutes or so, but switching through the stations to WNYC (1010 WINS was down) they eventually developed the story about the scope of the blackout and that there wouldn't be another train (some people were going to stay before word got passed to them).

Sounds like you're on track to have contingencies for contacting/meeting up with your wife to get home together. As far as communicating with the au pair, it's probably a good idea to follow Wildman's suggestion - have a resource for her to know to open should things go bad, so she doesn't have to guess or remember what you want her to do to take care of the kids. Also, as far as communicating with her, I'd think HAM would be a fantastic way to get ahold of her in almost any conditions, but I would guess it's fairly unlikely that you'll be getting her up to speed on that ("what kind of a job IS this?" she'll be asking herself). What might work better is out-of-town/out-of-state contacts. Again in the blackout, most cell phone providers were out (I believe people with Sprint were making calls on the subway when everyone else was getting nothing). It probably took about an hour/hour and a half before I could get ahold of anyone, and that was my parents in Ohio and my in-laws in Buffalo. As suggested, a combination of landline and/or cell texting might work to get the word to a distant contact who can pass word on to the au pair.

Finally, for bugout preps, I've never seen a single source to match this guy's Web site:
http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/p/0004.html

A real nuts and bolts, step by step dissection of what to do - pick and choose from his suggestions as fits your needs, but it's really well-organized.

Good luck in the preps.

Dave

+1 on both of those. I've never lived in a densley populated area but I do know 2 things for sure. My daily driver is a big old 4X4 truck with winch, "battering ram" of a bumper and all the goodies weighing just under 700lbs. Luckily my daily commute is only about 15 minutes and driving DW's fuel effecient little 6 cylinder car for a week saved me about a whopping $6.00 difference. On the other hand if I make the decision to lock it in 4 wheel drive I AM getting where I intend to go and the only thing that can stop it is a bigger more solid truck or heavy machinery. There is no substitute for a truck and a dog can be a big deterrent to a lot of people related problems. Doesn't even have to be a big or "scary" dog. Just having one gives a lot of people pause when thinking ill intent. It will bark and make noise at someone lurking around and be far more likely to notice them before you do and even a timid quiet dog will tend to distract someone that doesn't know the animal if they are trying something.

Google maps shows two railroads. Do both run? Are they above or below ground? If I wanted to get from one end of LI to the other, I would be tempted to investigate the RR right-of-ways and see if there was enough clear passage for a 2-person dirt bike. And I'd check out the dirt bikes, too. Maybe a little extra gas, too. Be ready for whatever weather, no matter what mode of transportation you plan on using.

Maybe Finns are a little more prep-savvy than others. She needs to be understand what to do and when to do it before you get home. You won't/can't always be there in time.

Blast was right in getting to know your neighbors. Out there, neighbors may depend on each other a little more than in Brooklyn.

Maybe rainwater harvesting into a cistern or tank would be a better option than a well. Talk to your neighbors. Rainwater is 20 times cleaner than any groundwater. Unless it's outlawed there, too.

Sue

The idea of trying to leave Manhatttan during a blackout or "situation", and travel 21 miles to Long island just seems too dangerous and risky to me.

If you and your wife leave on bicycles, and aren't defeated by the terrain or weather, you might just become moving targets for some angry hoodlums. It won't take much for some folks to decide they want to take your means of transporation away from you. Also, there are even more violent things that they can do to you or your wife.

Forget about bikes, and just prepare to stay in town at a prearranged location that has been stocked with supplies ahead of time.

Buy BlackBerrys for everyone, including your au pair, as they might work when your cell phones won't. Also, check into 2-way radios.

Some 2-way radios now boast a range of 30 miles or more--which means absolutely nothing until you have tested them in the city. However, a 2-way radio might possibly work from the roof of a building, when communicating 20 miles or so out to Long Island. Regardless, this is something you should test ahead of time.

After a day or two, if the situation seems to be safe, even if public transporation is still not working, you can probably just pay someone to drive you out to Long Island.

I see getting home as the big problem. I do not think that 20+ miles is easily doable anything but the best of conditions. Are you/wife in good enough shape? Are you used to walking long distances or will you end up disabled by simple blisters? Consider that 20 miles at 3 miles an hour is 6 and 2/3 hours of straight walking: no pit stops, no breaks, no delays. In a really bad situation it could stretch out more, and I think easily end up catching you outside at night, turning it into an "overnight".

So, anything to speed the journey, e.g. bikes, is good. Have enough in your kits for an overnight somewhere while getting home.

This brings up the question of friendly "way stations" in Brooklyn (which I assume you would be passing through). Are there friends/relatives or just places where you could stop and rest and re-supply or pick up additional supplies? Or how about, if you could walk to you old home in Brooklyn, could you stash bikes/mo-peds somewhere in Brooklyn and walk there, then ride the rest of the way? If not with friends/relatives, how about a self-store unit with 24 hour access?

As far a the new house location goes, generator and water are pretty well covered, and your right about the hurricane=bug out. I grew up on the south shore of Long Island, and were always ready to leave. But if it is only a hurricane, even with 20 feet of water over your house, it won't cover all of Long Island. The North Shore is much higher than the South Shore. Consider a temporary bug out just across Long Island to someplace on the North Shore; again, relatives? friends? work associates?

As for your number 3, what else should I worry about, I feel strange mentioning this to someone from Brooklyn, but crime? Not home invasion stuff, but simple B&E. In many suburban bedroom communities, the high time for homes to be robbed is 10am to 2 pm. Everyone is at work/school etc. and no one is around; a ghost town. Consider a good alarm system, even with your au pair there full time

Just a few ideas I hope you find useful

Huh? NYC water is NOT pumped unless you live in a high rise - "natural" water pressue in NYC will bring water to about the 4-6 floor - it's gravity all the way from upstate, no pumps, so electric failures don't really cause problems in "NYC" but does in buildings. If you get down to the street, things like hose bibs and hydrants work (and yes, I carry a real hydrant wrench in the truck)

RE Getting home from Manhattan during a blackout.

I was in Times Square Subway station during the last one, and I live in Bayside, which for those of you who don't know, is about as far east in NYC as you can get (Douglaston and Little Neck are further, but that's it)

It's about 14 miles from Times Square to home (Both the one I lived in then, and the current one)

Now, DaveT can tell you, I'm not exactly in shape, unless you consider round a shape, but I started walking - I got about 4.5 of those 14 home, when I ran into a friend who was about to be picked up, and got a lift

I will stay that once you got over the Queensboro (59th St) bridge, buses were running but jammed and slow, and lots of folks were giving other folks lifts. One thing you will find about NYers - we do tend to pull together when things happen - 36 hours later, things might be bad, but for that first 24-36, we band together

Charlie's absolutely right (hi Charlie!).

Having been in NYC for both 9/11 and the blackout, I would expect there would have to be something really off the charts for you to get the whole movie scenario of 8.whatever million people in the city to all panic and riot at the same time. In both those instances, with a lot of uncertainty and fear, New Yorkers really stepped up and responded to other peoples' (and their own) needs and offered help.

I would think if there's a situation where you need to get home, long commute or not, unless the drama/danger is RIGHT on top of you, you're not going to get wandering gangs and Road Warrior behavior for...a few days at least.

Dave