The idea of trying to leave Manhatttan during a blackout or "situation", and travel 21 miles to Long island just seems too dangerous and risky to me.

If you and your wife leave on bicycles, and aren't defeated by the terrain or weather, you might just become moving targets for some angry hoodlums. It won't take much for some folks to decide they want to take your means of transporation away from you. Also, there are even more violent things that they can do to you or your wife.

Forget about bikes, and just prepare to stay in town at a prearranged location that has been stocked with supplies ahead of time.

Buy BlackBerrys for everyone, including your au pair, as they might work when your cell phones won't. Also, check into 2-way radios.

Some 2-way radios now boast a range of 30 miles or more--which means absolutely nothing until you have tested them in the city. However, a 2-way radio might possibly work from the roof of a building, when communicating 20 miles or so out to Long Island. Regardless, this is something you should test ahead of time.

After a day or two, if the situation seems to be safe, even if public transporation is still not working, you can probably just pay someone to drive you out to Long Island.