LIRR? Hahahahaaha - Oh, That's funny. My wife takes the LIRR, and I used to, and we are on one of the more reliable branches

The LIRR runs late/cancels trains all the time. Here are some of the reasons I've heard

Too Cold (winter)
Too Hot (summer)
It's spring, so the trees are dropping sap on the rails (spring)
There are leaves on the rails (fall)
It's raining (well, yeah, that happens)
It's snowing
The sun is shining in the motormans eyes

I haven't heard of an excuse (other than equipment or signal problems) that they can use on a mild, dry, overcast day - but the trains still run late/are canceled

One of the Barrier Beaches? The Rockaways? Remember, they get flooding even in non hurricanes - Winter Noreasters, days with a good onshore wind

The good thing, believe it or not, is that the subway can usually get you to Jamacia, and there is a huge bus hub there - the RR will often provide buses from there, but also plan out alternates, and things like where someone with a car can meet you

Pack a snack, a bottle of water, and if you really want to - a scanner covering LIRR chanels 1-4 (and the police frqs if you want) - you can often get enough info to "beat the crowd" by paying attention