I liken Treadwell's 13 seasons of manufactured good fortune to the guy who put one bullet in his Schofield revolver, spun the cylinder, and pulled the trigger, repeating the process 19 times without hitting the primer. Considering his luck to be rock solid, he headed for town, where he was run over by a runaway wagon team of horses and killed.

His supposed good fortune was due in no small part the excellent design and quality construction of the pistol, in that with only one bullet in the cylinder, it was unbalanced and by spinning it the weight of the bullet inevitably caused the cylinder to come to rest with the loaded chamber at the bottom of rotation, thereby ensuring that the hammer would not ever strike the primer.

The point being that just because the bear has something else to do at any given time, it don't mean that you won't eventually get his attention. Just cuz I got cookies in the cupboard don't mean I am gonna have to eat one every time I walk by. But by God, sooner or later they are gonna get eaten.