I better understand your hypothesis and your conclusions may turn out to be accurate. I would certainly agree that SPOT's price point may very likely get it in to more outdoor enthusiast's hands than PLBs. And certainly more units out there may turn into more rescues.

However, there are a couple of issues that may prevent that from coming true. First, how long is your non-serious outdoor enthusiast going to pay that annual subscription fee. There is a distinct possibility that after SPOT loses its newness and sits in the duffel bag for a few months, that the price of the subscription will become a discretionary expense that does not make the cut.

Also, you correctly point out that most of the serious outdoor enthusiasts, after weighing the options, will choose a PLB. As these folks live a little closer on the edge, there may be more opportunities for rescue than the casual SPOT user. At the same time, I would also also hope that the serious enthusiast would be better prepared and thus would not find themselves in as many rescue situations.

The jury is still out. I will always count on my MicroFix as I get too far off the grid and have too many people counting on me to be a problem solver to count on anything less.

The battle will get much more interesting if we ever see SPOT 2.0 which is rumored to include text messaging (which would really make sense). If they do that at a good price point, they will really bridge the gap between a PLB and a sat phone and the battle for supremacy for the casual user will certainly be over.

Craig.