Wow, this question is hard to answer.
Depends on the shape (width) of the projected cone, the brightness and size of the hotspot (center), etc. Luminosity measures how much overall light is provided but tells you nothing about how focused the light is or how useful it will be.
Also depends on how far ahead you want to see, whether you want to preserve night vision, do you care about illuminating the periphery? (Are you near cliffs? Crevasses? Are you caving?) For example, if you're biking, you want to see much further ahead than if you're walking.
A 200 lumen unfocused beam can be useless outdoors. And the glare can be so bad so you can't see more than a few feet ahead of you. A 40 lumen beam can throw a sufficiently bright hotspot that you get by just fine. It all depends on the light.
And remember, brightness is logarithmic. To double the brightness, you need an exponential increase in power. So, all things being equal, the difference between 1 and 100 lumens appears enormous. The difference between 100 and 1000 lumens is much less dramatic. (It's the same with sound.)
Lumens are also incredibly tricky to measure. Most manufacturers don't provide incredibly accurate ratings, as you need to enclose the flashlight in a sphere and measure its total output. And if the flashlight is unregulated, the brightness will start dropping off almost instantly as the battery voltage starts to drop.
You might want to scan through
http://candlepowerforums.com for some introductory material on flashlights.