I have some nightmares about leaving NYC. One of my big fears is what if all the worst cases scenarios about Cumbre Vieja are true. What if a huge mountain really does slide off the Canary Islands and into the Atlantic? In my thinking, this is one of the worst scenarios for NYC. Predictions have us underwater in 7 or so hours. The boat is probably not going to help you, unless you really can get it into Long Island Sound or the Atlantic. Bugging out, tough by any method, but cars may not get you far enough, fast enough and without running empty. Long Island simply may be awash, almost all of it.

So, my way to go is train. If the announcement has just come out, and the mountain is now in the sea. MetroNorth, here I come, NOW. Cram me into the first train I can get on the Harlem (preferably) or Hudson lines, and I am off. I'll get out North of White Plains. If I get forced into a Hudson Line train, I want to stay on until Garrison. Peekskill might be OK, but Indian Point is right there.

A boat can work, but if you are heading North, then you have really few places to stop for quite a long way, if you want to avoid people or camp for a night. You can probbaly stop on the Jersey shore from about the GWB to a few miles below the Tappan Zee, but you will be right on the river. You are not likely to scale the Pallisades. After that, you need to get close to Bear Mountain before you can stop again without meeting people or to camp. Once past Bear Mountain, your options get better. Bannerman's Island south of Newburgh might be a secure spot for a while. It's big, popular to visit for kayakers, etc., but won't get many people. From Newburgh, you are about 20-30 miles or so from your spot 75 miles north of the City. Kingston is 80 miles up from the Battery. There is an Island jsut south of Kingston in the middle of the river.

If you want to head up the East River, timing is everything, unless you have a motor. A small motor vessel can make it up the river at any time, jsut be careful with traffic between the 59th St. Bridge and until you are past the Triboro Bridge. Without a motor, you are only moving with the tide. 4-5 knots of current can take you pretty far during a 5-6 hour tide. You might be able to take a break at North or South Brothers Islands, althought they are close to Rikers. From there, the next relatively uninhabited Island is Harts Island, the last part of NYC, and where Potter's Field is located. Then you are in the Sound.

I heard yesterday about a hurricane that passed over the Hudson River in 1960 or 1961. The U.S.C.G. sent boats north to get out of the way. Hurricane models were not so good about predicting paths, and when the boats got to Tarrytown, the storm was on the boats, with ten foot seas. I was told it was tough keeping the boats off the Tappan Zee Bridge, according to what one of the then Quartermasters told me last night.

Bugging in is a much better option, and transportation stinks. But if you might want to leave, leave ASAP.