1. 50/50 chance right now
2. see number 1
3. too dependent on variable conditions, the risk increases with time.
4. Yes
5. Yes

As a sidenote, the US has broken all diplomatic relations with Belarus, part of the former Soviet Union, this week. This means we've closed our embassy there, and sent their ambassadors packing from our country. Their leader is characterized as the last dictator of Europe, and Belarus has access to a Nuclear arsenal.