From a reasonable source we have an assertion that death by astroid is more likely than death in plane crash. Check this link for a debate involving NASA and JPL

Debate on Astroids

for the impatient;

THE ODDS

For U.S. residents, here the odds of dying in certain select ways:

Car Crash: 1-in-100

Electrocution: 1-in-5,000

Asteroid Impact: 1-in-20,000

Plane Crash: 1-in-20,000

Tornado: 1-in-60,000

Bite or Sting: 1-in-100,000

SOURCE:Chapman & Morrison, Nature, 1994

Given these odds why are we preparing for tornados and not asteroids. Is it because the preparation for asteroids is beyond our capacity? If that is the thinking then I propose that we start about community survival rather than individual survival. If we can find a way to bring knowledge, political stability and community values through the mass destruction wrought by asteroid impact then we actually may have survival though we be unable to avoid or mitigate the effects. Just some thoughts.

Hope I haven't strayed too far with this post and I certainly don't mean to be a doom-sayer or wacko! Just looking at the odds and thinking about preparation.

MiniMe,
Thanks for putting things in perspective. I suppose the prospect of death from WMD would rate somewhere beyond 1 in 100,000 ?

Any statisticians, mathematicians wish to hazard a guess ?

Numerical odds mean little to the 3000 souls in the World Trade Center or Lottery winners. As for asteroids? I have my 12 guage and a picklehaube helmet my grandfather brought back <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

The study of the impact threat and the environmental consequences of impact is one focus of my research, and I can tell you that I do not lose sleep at night worrying about it. That is not to say that I do not think we should study the issue and be prepared to deal with an impending threat. We (that means all of us) have to decide, given the facts we have on the near-Earth object population and what we know (and have yet to learn) about the physical properties of these objects, how to prioritize our preparation and response to this threat given other threats we have to deal with (hurricanes, chemical spills, terrorism, etc.).

Take a look at a white paper that we (Chapman, Durda, and Gold) wrote on this subject to see where we stand:

http://www.boulder.swri.edu/clark/neowp.html

Dan

Durda,
I am constantly amazed by the caliber of the membership on this forum! Thanks for the link.
Brad.

Chris,

disclaimer: If this thread is ruled off-topic or out-of-bounds for this forum I will take no offense and am hereby apologizing in advance for leading the forum astray.

In most of the preparations that I see discussed on this forum I see preparations for the individual and the family to survive. This is due primarily to the fact that we only consider threats that don't include general social colapse. As the studies show the percentage chances of an event that might bring general social colapse (eg catastrophic asteroid impact) are as high as the chances of other personal level threats that we consider worthy of discussion and preparation. I think that there is something to be gained in discussing how we might prepare to survive as communities. As we discuss having sufficient water on hand to live for a few days it might also be worthwhile thinking of having a copy of "Roberts Rules" the Magna Carta and a few other choice documents, some information on how to build a forge and a smithy, how to organize and defend a small community. I recognize that these sort of preparations are the same as discussed by many fringe elements that we might want to avoid and the scenarios that get us into these sorts of survival situations are rife with low probability religio/political scenarios that we rightly might want to avoid. Nonetheless, if an asteroid impact is indeed as likely as a tornado then we might want to have some preparations for rebuilding not only our little bunker with supplies and defenses but also preparations to help build a decent community where our children and grandchildren have a chance of surviving without being thrown back into the stone age.

Just a thought - 'nuff from me, I'd imagine.
Brad

The problem with the statistic that you cite for probability of death due to asteroid impact is that it is computed from the very low probability of a large (dinosaur killer class ) asteroid strike on the planet (on the order I believe of one every 100,000,000 years) time the death of everyone on the planet.

Since the scale of the event is on the order of everyone dying if the asteroid hits, the defence is to not allow that to happen. This is much like thermonuclear war, nobody ever thought that thermonuclear war was a good idea, the arguements were how to keep it from happneing.

The way to prevent a large asteroid strike is to detect and classify all Earth orbit crossing asteroids and develop technology to modify their orbits (if necessary) to insure that they miss. There are programs currently in place to do the former, but none that I am aware of to do the latter. Of course, the more lead time you have, the smaller the orbital change (in degrees) needs to be made.

Seth

For many reasons (which I will not attempt to discuss here) I think it is unproductive to try to use statistics to calculate one's risk of death from WMD.

However, I think it is illuminating to consider that the odds of having been killed by the al Qaeda attacks on the WTC, etc. were approximately 1/94,000, a number quite similar to the hypothesized figure of 1/100,000+ odds of dying from a WMD attack. (Assumes 3000 deaths divided by US pop. of 282,000,000).

Just an observation,

John

Brad, Your post is not innapropriate. Please reread Doug's essay "This is not a survivalist site" on the homepage. The subjects are well served by several other websites; many of which are linked here. I think there is a very American mythos in the whole post apocalyptic scenarios of 'survivalists.' Our history is based on expansion; territorial,trade,scientific, even civil rights. Anybody feeling dysenfranchised could "go west" or invent the airplane and fly off. Our options seem much more limited now. An elite few have gone into space while opportunities seem ever fewer on the ground for the rest of us. So for the 'disenfranchised', a major social or environmental collapse is actually restoring the wilderness.

I meant no offence in my post <img src="images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />
For me the stats help me take a step back and look at the whole picture and probabilities as it applies to where I live. The stats in the US would probably be different from Singapore in terms of WMD (Although we have quiet a few US installations here).

Stats aside, I am also preparing for any eventuality in my own home and office (of course this is all in a constant flux as well) and the Civil Defence force over here has just distributed an updated civil defence booklet which includes items on what to do in a bomb blast , chemical / biological attack etc.

Even here we don't leave things to chance. You can bet I've got my plastic sheeting and duct tape

<img src="images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />