#127553 - 03/17/08 01:21 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: benjammin]
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Old Hand
Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
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Looks like it is getting time to think about buying a bicycle again. A bike is a good idea, to save money on expensive oil and get exercise. To invest, think about Gold, gold shares, real property anything that is a real asset. Some gold, some actual coins, a few are never a bad idea to have. It's like an insurance policy. Some stocks may be fine, but you'll need to be pick them wisely. I bought a house, but probably a year too soon.
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#127565 - 03/17/08 03:35 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: Dan_McI]
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Old Hand
Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
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I think most people would sit and wait for the government to fix it and rescue them. They would want the government to do another New Deal to save us. This will not work any more then it did last time. The new deal did not pull us out of the depression, Hitler and WWII did.
Hopefully most of us here are somewhat better prepared for a collapse if it happens then most of the populist.
I never bought into the idea of gold investing as any value if our whole economy tanks. You can’t eat gold, you can’t heat your home with it. I don’t see it having much trade value with others. Food and useful supplies are good trade items. When things go south, how would one go about trading or bartering with gold? A few ounces of gold, is not worth as much as $15.00 worth of ravioli or other can goods to a person with a hungry family. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.
_________________________
You can run, but you'll only die tired.
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#127568 - 03/17/08 04:07 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: BobS]
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Old Hand
Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
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I never bought into the idea of gold investing as any value if our whole economy tanks. You can’t eat gold, you can’t heat your home with it. I don’t see it having much trade value with others. Food and useful supplies are good trade items. When things go south, how would one go about trading or bartering with gold? A few ounces of gold, is not worth as much as $15.00 worth of ravioli or other can goods to a person with a hungry family. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I don’t think so. Should gold be of little value and trading food as you describe is something that's done, and this occurs solely because the economy has failed, then the economy will have really failed totally. I hope I never see such days. So long as there is an ecomony, and we still use dollars, I think gold will have value.
Edited by Dan_McI (03/17/08 04:19 PM)
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#127569 - 03/17/08 04:07 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: BobS]
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Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
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I don't believe the scenario entails a total collapse, but more a rather aggressive inflationary spike, followed by a relative shortage of regular commodities. Most certainly not a catastrophic event that would reduce society to such anarchy that the supply system would have collapsed.
Under such a limited pretext, I would think gold to be a superior tender to state currency or bulk commodities like food. There may be some localized needs that would warrant a bartering system, but by and large, the infrastructure of the country is going to remain intact, it will just get very expensive to transact, and a more stable and universal tender could put a person at an advantage, depending on the scale of their acquisitions and their logistics. This is based on the premise of the scenario under discussion. If it foments into something more egregious, then certainly things such as food, fuel and ammunition become a much more desirable exchange media, but widespread breakdown of regulatory control would pre-empt such activity on anything but a very localized occurence.
If I see mobs looting the stores and gas stations aflame, I'll have already traded my gold off for another heavy metal, cast lead in copper jackets, heh heh heh.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)
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#127574 - 03/17/08 04:58 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: raydarkhorse]
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INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3760
Loc: TX
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Y'all might want to read this thread about surviving Argentina's hyper-inflation. It's long, but with many useful nuggets. -Blast
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#127594 - 03/17/08 07:01 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: raydarkhorse]
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Addict
Registered: 01/27/07
Posts: 510
Loc: on the road 10-11 months out o...
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I see a lot of good answers about possible governmental responses, and personal reactions. I'm really looking for how is how your neighborhoods, local communities, and towns would respond based on you knowledge of the areas and people around you. Basically would the people in your local area come together to help one another as needed, would it be every man for himself or a little of both. For me personally I'm at home unemployed and would like to say that the area that I'm in would come together but it won't. Over the years I have tried to talk to my neighbors and the only ones that will do more than say hi is the young girl next door, who will talk but is afraid some one will tell her jealous husband. Also the man across the street but he stays pickled and doesn’t make much sense most of the time. We have a lot of young men 20-40) that live with their moms and dads and refuse to look for full time work but most will do odd jobs here and there. Our trouble area is not very far away less than 2 miles and I have noticed in the last two months a very large increased police presence. Given the scenario I put forward I believe the area will basically go to blazes in fairy short order. We also live less than20 miles from one of the most violent cities in the country, and I’m afraid that the violence would only increase and spread in fairly short order without government intervention.
_________________________
Depend on yourself, help those who are not able, and teach those that are.
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#127598 - 03/17/08 07:20 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: Dan_McI]
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Old Hand
Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
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I never bought into the idea of gold investing as any value if our whole economy tanks. You can’t eat gold, you can’t heat your home with it. I don’t see it having much trade value with others. Food and useful supplies are good trade items. When things go south, how would one go about trading or bartering with gold? A few ounces of gold, is not worth as much as $15.00 worth of ravioli or other can goods to a person with a hungry family. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I don’t think so. Should gold be of little value and trading food as you describe is something that's done, and this occurs solely because the economy has failed, then the economy will have really failed totally. I hope I never see such days. So long as there is an ecomony, and we still use dollars, I think gold will have value. Gold is valuable only as long as people believe it is. How would you trade with it in a situation like Katrina if it went on for any time. Lets say you had 1-oz of it. I don’t see a way to trade with a $1000.00 bill (Gold is going for about that right now) for food or supplies. Also how does the other person know it’s real or pure or for that matter even worth what you say it is? They don’t. Food, a Coleman stove & fuel, shampoo, toilet paper, and hundreds of other item would be a better thing to barter with then gold. I think with gold you would have to trade it at a substantial loss in a barter system. If you are hungry and so is your wife & kids, you will trade that $1000.00 piece of metal for $100.00 in food and a few supplies. Why not just buy the food now and save the $900.00 loss? Most of us here prepare ahead of time, but most people don’t and to a hungry cold wet person that has no place to go and a family, food, a stove & fuel and a tent and a few blankets would be worth it’s weight in Gold…
Edited by BobS (03/17/08 07:21 PM)
_________________________
You can run, but you'll only die tired.
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#127604 - 03/17/08 08:12 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: raydarkhorse]
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INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3760
Loc: TX
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I'm really looking for how is how your neighborhoods, local communities, and towns would respond based on you knowledge of the areas and people around you. If Houston's evacuation before Hurricane Rita was any indication, our neighborhood will band together to help each other out. A lot of neighbors have started putting in gardens and most hunt & fish. In the past one neighbor or another has ended up with some sort of major injury/illness and the rest of us help them out with cooking/lawncare/babysitting or whatever is needed. The skill sets and resources available in our brains and garages bode well for surviving tough times. It won't be fun and often it'll probably be very scary and stressful, but I can't think of a better place to be as far as neighbors are concerned. I think our main worry will be outsiders causing problems. We have a troubled neighborhood behind us, and the bulk of Houston 15 miles down the freeway... -Blast
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#127609 - 03/17/08 09:20 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: Blast]
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Old Hand
Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
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My neighborhood, I think event within the past decade have shown that New York City can be quite well-behaved over the short term. In the black out of 2003, New Yorkers took to the bars, drank beer and had a good time. Crime was lower than on most nights. Much better than during the 1977 blackout, which was awful. If the 2003 version of New York shows up, it will initially not be so bad. If New Yorkers revert to the form of 1977, lead projectiles would be very nice to have.
I hope I really never see a time when I am reduced to bartering. If our economy is reduced to barter, we are really in deep doodoo. I also do not think I will ever see a day when gold has no value. It seems to have have always had value, no matter how far back into history one looks. While under some circumstances gold may be hard to trade, $1000 of food is hard to carry. I don't see us living in a barter economy, and I don't see me being able to carry that much food. So long as we have a market economy, I think I'll be able to trade gold. if i need to leave an immediate area, I can carry an ounce of gold or silver. YMMV, make your choices based on your circumstances.
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#127610 - 03/17/08 09:21 PM
Re: Here’s the scenario
[Re: Blast]
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Veteran
Registered: 03/02/03
Posts: 1428
Loc: NJ, USA
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As far as the gold thing goes, it's good to diversify what you have. Definitely have food, goods, and tools stockpiled, but also buy some gold and silver, foreign currency, and other tangible assets when you have the spare cash to do so. It may or may not help, but all it needs to do is save you or your family once to be worth it. When preparing for the unknown, anything could wind up coming in handy. You just never know.
On a side note with gold: You don't have to buy it in only one ounce gold coins. There are plenty of smaller denominations. You can buy uncirculated U.S. Gold Eagles in 1/10th, 1/4, and 1/2 ounce sizes. You can also buy gold in jewelry, which you can wear and therefore always have on you, but also consider it as a possible bartering tool if the need ever arises.
Again, you don't have to put a ton of money into gold, but a few bucks here and there adds up over time. Years ago I started collecting coins and currency. Every year, if I had some spare cash, I'd pick up some coins or currency that I liked. I'd also get some as gifts from people that knew I liked coins, or forein currency from people that went on vacations to various places and had some left over. I don't know exactly how much I have right now, but I know between my collection and jewelry it's plenty for an emergency. Plus, if I have to bug out at least I know I have some form of money that I can grab and go. Instead of hoping I can find a working ATM somewhere.
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