This thread is going to ask what do you think would happen. I am not asking if you think the scenario is impossible or inevitable, and this question is not to debate; who is at fault for any present problems real or perceived. I’m looking for purely social response from your points of view and geographical areas, not a government response based on the scenario. I’m not going to even put forth my ideas yet because I’m interested what every one else has to say.

Here’s the scenario, tomorrow you wake up to find that we have had another black Monday. The stock market has crashed, and when you go to the bank just like in 1929 they limit the amount of cash you can withdraw. The economy goes to crap, and unemployment doubles over night. Given the differences in today’s technology, morality and ethics (for lack of a better terms) what do you think would happen?

Democratic president. Crime goes up. Gun sales boom [!] Bankruptcy courts overwhelmed. Commodiity prices first soar, then tank. Self-reliance comes back into fashion.

1) The "Great Depression" featured money that had worth/value but no one had any. The "Great Depression II" will feature worthless money that people have quite a bit of. U.S. Money will become "very expensive, rather rough, toilet paper".

2) People who are aware of what's coming, and can afford to, have or are moving out of the cities and into the countryside.

They are buying (in cash by those who can) places with enough acreage that can support large gardens, a few cattle or goats, and some fuel for wood burning stoves.

Others (like myself) are making arrangements to get out of the city and into the countryside. Those such as myself are paying off as much debt as possible as quickly as we possibly can.

3) We are ALL going to find that the preparations that we have made are going to be needed AND used during the times ahead. This will be especially true of our food stores.

4) I expect the "Big Brother" factor to greatly increase as the crime rate increases.

5) I also expect that "food rationing" MAY become a reality as more acreage is tied up in FUEL production instead of FOOD production.

6) Revolution (Civil War II) MAY be in the air as a much larger segment of the population grows hungry and resentful.

7) Eventually, the American Public will welcome the advantages of the North American Union and with that, the AMERO to replace the worthless Dollar.

8) Strict control of people's movements will be instituted as recovery efforts are being instituted since since some places are threatened to be overloaded with the needy.

I am really trying hard to answer the original question and NOT get political. I am afraid that the two are intertwined and not able to be completely separable.

I sincerely apologize if this violates the rules and would accept removal of this post by the moderators if they deem it has gone over the line.

I wonder if that means the border will be locked down or if our super Canadian tourist dollars will be welcome.

While the cirumstances are slightly different, I see a lot of similarities to the Russian collapse of 1998, which offers good insight into what might happen here. There's a pretty good article here about it here:

http://www.fas.org/news/russia/2000/russia/part08.htm


In very basic terms, the stock market crashed and money lost most of its value within a short amount of time. Banking basically collapsed, and therefore Banks and ATM machines were shut down. People lost huge amounts of money and nothing could be bought on credit, both for individuals and for businesses.

From that, shortages of meat, cooking oil, flour, butter, sugar, rice, and milk caused a lot of stores to close. Cost for goods, especially foreign goods, went through the roof. Stores that did stay open had long lines and closed often to figure out what to charge for the goods they could sell. Those in the city hit hardest with the food shortage, as they couldn't grow really any of their own food. Families with children or elderly to support also hit very hard.

People that still had jobs were paid in whatever the company could spare, instead of money. Shortages of medicine and medical care became common (also became very expensive). Alcoholism, drug use, and crime skyrocket. Abortion rate goes up, school drop-out rate goes up, percentage of those with sexually transmitted diseases, like HIV, increase. Basically, a big mess for quite a long time.

It might not happen the exact same way in America, but I see a lot of similarities. The stock market is down, money is losing a lot of its value, the price of goods and medicine is way up, ect. It's like almost the same thing that happened in Russia is happening here, just not as fast. All we're waiting on is for banking to collapse, and if that happens I bet it will speed things right along.

When the Russians switched over from chits to Rubles, Citizens had 3 days to convert their chits into Rubles and were limited in how much ($500 worth) they could convert per day. After 3 days, many, many people were left holding onto rather expensive "toilet paper".

Many former Russian government officials have been and are still consultants on some very interesting subjects within this country. One area of which I speak has to do with Internal Security.

My guess:

Day 1 -No change, except for a little bit of talk show/radio story. Financial consultants are hard to reach (unless you have a good quality spatula).

Day 2 -Ditto. A light undercurrent of panic. Nervous laughter but little else.

Day 3 -People's dim senses begin to realize that something has happened. Their food supplies are very low (didn't ration) and they can't but much more. Those wearing Hoffman Lenses are completing the last details of their evacuation plans.

Day 4 -Panic surfaces in the cities. Riots start at grocery stories (few riots at first, centered on food storage)

Day 7-10 Riots now common (spillover into tech goods and personal property). Martial Law declared. Military rolls into a few cities and makes better use of the active denial systems. Curfew imposed. Birthday parties canceled.

Week 2 People adjust to new situation and economy (if there is one) is stabilizing. Government ration lines and check points start (to deter lootings etc). People on the red list don't make it through either. GVT rations are used up within the week (AND it was hard to get them)

Week 3 Propaganda is on the airways 100%. Mandatory repayment of debts is instituted (by 'work' camps). If it gets really bad they won't even bother with repayment they'll just use the military trucks/trains to round people up into Fema camps. "We are the XXXX Military. We are here to help. Food and water are available in the camps. Violation of camp rules will not be tolerated..."

Week 4 Strange Ash settles downwind of the camp's chimneys. Chicken substitute becomes plentiful and pollution is on the decline.


<Kidding>
I would be stunned if the economy lurched to a stop. The powers that be will avoid that as money is the system of control. If they lose money as a control system they will switch to food/water (and they don't have much of either to use it as a carrot for long).

If the economy does slow down substantially I don't feel that the population will be able to shake their conditioning. I think the PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. will remain passive and calm while waiting for someone else to save them (The UN?). Calm is relative though as Race issues may come up.
If the economy does stall I also suspect that war will break out to distract the citizens and redirect their emotional flux. Those who are prepared will have the ultimate test of their characters and ethics (who do you save? how much can you help/instruct without letting everyone know you're a preparedness type? etc). My recommendation: Serve the greater good and go down fighting. The flesh suit only last so long anyway and good deeds ripple out forever. -Sorry for the tangent!

-NIM

P.S.
I also suspect that the power will always flow to GWEN, HAARP and the cellphone towers.

"Sleep...Sleep....Sleep...."

It's already started:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnnOOo6tRs8&fmt=18

The one thing that will happen is inflation. While the price of oil has been going up, much of the recent rise is the lowering of the value of the dollar. A lot of that has been because the Federal Reserve is lowering it's value due to the credit crunch. Higher inflation is soon going to be a fact.

The one good thing about that is that people will nto want to hold money, so they will seek to spend it. If we have inflation, a dollar loses value over time, so spending it is the solution. You also may have no choice but to spend more, because things cost more. So, we will not have a repeat of the deflationary 1920s-30s, when holding your money was a good idea, because no one had any.

I don't suspect much at all will change for the average Joe. Given how low unemployment rates are, doubling them won't effect that many more. Things will get a lot more expensive, but anyone who can't afford it will just live on credit for a while. The govt will then pass another ridiculous law that bails them out just like the idiots who couldn't afford their ARM payments when their rates went up 1 or 2 points. The end result will be that foreigners will end up owning a bigger piece of the american pie as our debt to other nations increases. In the end, no one can afford for the US economy to tank so bad that it collapses, so although we may end up with heavy inflation for an extended period, it will only be to match what most other nations in the world are already at.

Looks like it is getting time to think about buying a bicycle again.