I'm not so pessimistic.

First of all, the advances that can be had in internal combustion engines have been held off by initial cost sensitivity of the American Buyer. 100MPG Diesel fueled vehicles are perfectly real, they are a little more expensive.

Tesla Motors has shown that an electric car is practical, fast and (for now) really expensive, however, the boogeyman of insufficient range is rapidly being scared off.

Growing food for fuel will soon be seen for the idiocy that it is, and we'll move to non-food crops and other sources for "bio-energy".

It's also pretty clear that worldwide, nuclear power is going to be a factor, as will allegedly "alternative" energy, which seem to be to be better called "expanded source" energy.

But I don't think all this is going to happen until we have a few years of $5 to $7 a gallon oil, which will drive investment, and even if there's "20 years of Sweet Crude" under US Soil, so what? I mean, I was in high school 24 years ago and it does not feel that long ago. 20 years is a blink when you look at the long view, especially when it comes time to change your national infrastructure.

We killed off trains and trolleys in about 25 years, what's to say we can't do the same to an oil-based transportation infrastructure? I mean, really, what's to say that we don't take those idiotic HOV lanes and turn them into something that's somewhere between a street-car and a bus, it goes 60 to 70 MPH, it's something equipped with ultra-capacitors, rides on rails bolted to what used to be an HOV lane, and has a charging system that works in 60 seconds or less at each station? Heck, I could even see stations as a self-contained solar-powered thing that tops off the ultra-capacitors or flywheels in between road trolleys. Plop this into the median of the interstate and you have something that could work - drive your expensive vehicle to the station, and have a road trolley come every 3 to 5 minutes.

Nope, too late for the oil prices to take a plunge now that the damage was done. We had a choice, 7 years ago. The administration gave congress the choice then, go after cheaper oil up north and resume some control over our own energy destiny, or we'll make the economics of NIMBY go through the roof. Congress went green, and the administration is now making them pay the price.

We have several huge global contractors now trying desperately to mobilize into Alberta and expedite the processing of the tar sands up there to recover crude. Some of the execs are weeping at the thought of how much money they aren't making right now that they could be. Yet the price keeps going up and up, so they aren't hanging themselves just yet.

I don't subscribe to the forgetfulness assertion either. Simply put, the alternative sources have limited application and suffer many headaches of their own. I've worked for a few energy companies that have invested heavily into R&D for decades for alternative energy sources and only recently came up with something significantly better than what was available in the 70s. We were researching alternative fuels in high school in the late 70s along with folks at Western Washington University trying to find ways to make alcohol and Hydrogen work in a piston motor, and it's taken some meticulous research to overcome some of the physics problems we faced then. There, too, I don't ever remember there not being big V-8 driven vehicles since the early 70s selling just as fast as they ever did or have up till now. In fact, I'd say the percentage of gas guzzling vehicles on the streets today is less than it was 2 or 3 years after the big embargo. As far as I can tell, smaller energy efficient vehicles have not diminished one little bit on the market. One thing I will note is that we have managed to squeeze a lot more efficiency out of the smaller motors. It was too much to ask to sacrifice a minimum level of performance for economy back in the 80s, but by the mid 90s the engine displacement size was almost cut in half, while the HP rating stayed pretty much the same. It has only gotten better as time went by.

I reject the notion that reclamation is a joke. In fact, if anything, the mandatory environmental investment required today for any sort of operation would dramatically improve those ecosystems that would be penetrated were we to go after the new domestic supplies. Maybe it was a problem 40 years ago, but the environmental propaganda of the media has little basis in fact anymore. Yeah, there are still problems. There are still risks. Nothing is foolproof, so I guess we will just do nothing instead?

But you are right, now that we are where we are, don't expect anything to fix it anytime soon. Sometimes we as a nation have to learn a lesson the hard way. We were offered a way out, and we slapped the helping hand away, so now we get to sit in the muck and the mud for a while and think about the cost of all that righteousness.

Personally, I wouldn't mind going back to horse and buggy days, although if you check the history, you'll find that wasn't such a pleasant way of life either.

My point was, we had a chance at it, and we blew it. I don't expect them to be very accomodating now that we are all moaning and groaning while they continue to haul wheelbarrows to the bank. They pretty much have us by the base of our snarglis, and they know it, and they have no reason to let go.

The yield numbers are better for non-food crops too. Switch grass returns better than double the ethanol compared to corn.

Before we hit the road, we could heat our 1500 sq ft house, located at the 2100 ft level in the Sierra, for about $300 a YEAR on pellets for our pellet stove. Little bit of electricity to run the fan/pellet feed, and a mini-amount of propane to run the stove and water heater. Of course the pellets came from Oregon, and a truck brought the propane, the increased fuel costs will have an effect on that...

It's been surmised that much of the current price of oil has more to do with speculators than on the actual supply of crude oil. If that's the case, the price will come back down fairly soon.

The problem is that each time this happens, the price never goes down to where it was before the nonsense started.

This will become a recurring theme unless the buying public wakes up.

Which brings to mind another phenomena.

Except for techonolgy (computers, cell phones, TVs and DVD players), when was the last time you saw retail prices go down instead of up? No matter what happens to the value of the dollar, the price of fuel or electricity, or anything else out there, it seems like all the prices at the supermarket just keep going up, and never really come down. You might get a bump on produce when it's in season, or the occasional spif sale or stock clearance, but by and large, consumables just seem to keep going up and up. It has been like this all of my life, and I gotta wonder, what does it take for prices to drop?

People say that a nickel don't buy what it used to, and I guess that's because folks didn't have as many nickels as they have now, so it seems like the economy has been in this long, constant runaway where the more money they make, the higher the cost of the goods and services they need. What a vicious cycle. Is it some reciprocating market thing, or is it just that everyone is so greedy they are afraid they won't get their fair share if they don't keep hiking the prices up? It doesn't even seem like supply and demand anymore.

There's a reason costs continue to go up.

It's called inflation and it's the result, primarily, of a Fiat monetary system and centralized banking. When "money" isn't tied to real value like gold or silver, the supply of cash can be increased at will. This gives those who receive the money first (banks, oil purchases, military and other governmental contractors) a big chunk 'O fun and an unfair advantage as that money spreads out and hits those at the bottom of the pyramid as a hidden tax when it now takes $2 to buy a $1 loaf of bread. Rinse and repeat and you have wholesale inflation.

There's a reason the Fed doesn't publish the M3 anymore and reported inflation is pinned to all the wrong things. Real purchasing power has waned far more than we are led to believe and that has only accelerated. Now that the dollar's bottom is falling out and gold is skyrocketing, there's going to be real consequences the world over as our lenders pull out of holding what amounts to printed paper without value.

Actually, the price of a lot of things has gone DOWN over the years.

Food is, on the whole, cheaper (in every definition of the word) today than it was in 1980.

Telecommunications might SEEM more expensive, but that's because when you were a kid, you had A SINGLE PHONE. We have two land lines, four cell phones and DSL service.

Fuel costs were low through the 1990's.

What's really increased is costs in healthcare.
My health care plan has a $5,800 deductible and $3,408 a year in premiums. None is covered by my employer.

Insurance costs have increased as well, my homeowners and automotive policies have increased a lot.

I guess if you've been putting off projects like replacing old, single-pane windows, replacing an ancient furnace, and other modifications that will increase energy efficiency, sooner is probably better than later with current energy prices, too. If you rely on fuel oil deliveries and other utilities to keep the house warm, then a well insulated home will stay warmer longer if something disrupts those supplies. Obviously, it won't stay warm forever, but better than in some creaky, leaky home.

I really should replace the old single pane windows in my new house.

Do the international loans have inflation clauses in them?

All I can think of was a really silly movie I saw once, can't even remember what it was, where everyone wanted Canadian rather than US dollars on the black markets. I thought it was funny then....