In case you missed it, oil came close to $100 a barrel today. We've had a nice warm autumn here on the east coast, so oil prices have been fairly contained, however at $95+ you can be certain that downstream costs are going to be pretty darn huge, especially given that the dollar is devaluing so quickly. Heating oil is already scraping against $3.00 a gallon, and gas is not far behind.

In terms of preparedness, this might not be a bad time to ponder how much fuel you need and what you might need to NOT get in order to ensure a maintainable level of backup fuels. In storms, in emergencies, fuel is always a super important resource, and while storage and rotation is challenging, it's necessary. If you don't have a household budget worked out already, this would be a great time to work one out, because unless you don't drive and don't pay for your own heat, this energy cost increase WILL affect you, and it's not going to get any cheaper anymore.

So, find the money. For example, I know I cut out the purchase of a nice new gun ($1,200) I had wanted to get this hunting season because the vehicle fuel budget had to come from somewhere.
We also were super-aggressive in wood collection all year long, and we have a LOT of wood ready to burn - and the oil burner is switched OFF unless we're out of the home for two or more days. We're also burning wood like we don't have any left and piling on the blankets at night. Yes, it's 55 degrees in the house in the winter at night. We warm it to 72-74 during the day. My oil bill for all of 2006 was $200, and that was due to some heavy travel and our house sitter kept the house far too warm. I expect my oil bill for this year to be less than $100 if we manage things well.

It's crazy. I can work from home and have on occassion. I plan on mentioning something to "the boss" if it goes too much higher.

Geez Martin...an whole $200 dollars? That's my monthly gas bill during the winter...and I light fires. Two story house with young ones...gotta keep em comfortable.

Wish I could just operate on wood...be cheaper, but for now the fire is a novelty for the family..sure comes in handy when the power goes off though. Provides me an opportunity for impromptu survival training. Taking showers with boiled water (deer camp) my 10 year old was thrilled, playing games by candle light.

I concur...it's going to get crazy and the rest of the country with it.

A site that is quite informative with respect to oil/fuel is:
http://www.theoildrum.com/
Five years ago I thought "Peak Oil" was far fetched,
two years ago I was growing more concerned,
Last year I accepted most people are no more prepared for the future changes in the cost and availability of fuel than any other survival skill (equipped forum members excepted of course).
Lately I have come to terms with the very real possibility that barring some miracle, the US in particular is in deep do-do.

My work is oil and gas related engineering,sorry to say it's more real than not, and shortages are likely to persist and cost skyrocket.

You are so right about actual preparedness required to adapt to fuel/energy shortages.
The additional threat is social disorder in reaction to the shortage.

All it will take is some event to trigger a serious run up in price, if you think oil/gas is expensive now, it is instructive to remember that bottled water is more expensive by the gallon.

I fear we may all get a chance to practice survival skills in the future.

This is one reason why I work at home - and have 10-cords of firewood

Ahhh..Southern California winters. Whoops! its getting cold here at 60 degrees. Let me turn on my heater fueled by endless natural gas. Over here natural gas is king. All jokes aside, 1500 square foot houses can accumulate a monthly gas bill of $200 if they aren't carefull.

SOCAL winters are the only reason to stay here. We went last winter with the furnace off, I'm guessing we'll do the same this year. Just gives me an excuse to buy wool: underwear, sweaters, socks. . . a new Filson vest.

I dunno, this whole oil business stinks. I remember a discussion about the president's strategy regarding drilling and piping the vast reserves from up north somewhere, and how congress poo-pooed the idea right into the ground. I think this is the backlash from the administration.

I know this sounds all conspiracy theory and paranoia, but think about it, we've got a good 25 year + supply of sweet crude sitting on domestic soil just waiting to be had, and the president wants to go after it now to get us off the world market (read OPEC) dependency a little, and right away he is shot down. It's like he gave us two policy choices, in one hand he offers us all the oil we can use, with gas prices at $1.50 or less for at least the next decade, plus wielding a serious club over the other big oil producing nations and buying us a little more time to develop and deploy economically feasible technology which was already planned to be done, and in the other hand he puts us in a position where we become even more dependent on foreign oil, our economy starts going to heck in a decade, and we are going to pay $4.00 a gallon for gas before his term is up. It ain't a big stretch to think that his administration has been subtlely steering us into a "if you don't like my policy, then you are all going to pay" situation. Basically what he's done has had the same effect as telling the enviros he'll let them have their way and see how bad it can really get, especially by doing certain things globally that exacerbate the whole situation. Then when TSHTF he can step back and tell us all how he tried to avoid it but no one wanted to listen.

Yeah, that just seems to far fetched to me...

It's actually worse than that. Even if you don't drive or pay for heat it will affect you. Fuel costs drive up the price of every single thing produced/grown, and transported on the planet. So unless you are 100% totally self-sufficient you will pay one way or another.

It's a pain but we've been here before. Oil prices were higher in 1973 after adjusting for inflation and we survived that. But we absolutely need a long term plan to switch from fossil to renewable energy. A total national effort along the lines of the Apollo project. Benjaminn already touched on a way to fund it: drill domestically and use a portion of the profits to finance the R&D. Do Congress, the President, and the courts have the political will to do it? Not now obviously.....

The passed-along costs, especially to food, are getting out of hand. I mean, a loaf of bread for $4.00? Not to mention milk, cheese, meat, etc.

And farmers deciding to plant corn for ethanol instead of regular crops because of the profit difference isn't helping, either.

No end in sight for the foreseeable future.

Benjammin, if you think opening up the north to oil exploitation is going to lower the price of gas, help to deliver us from OPEC, and solve any of our problems, I think you're dreaming.

Right during/after the oil 'shortages' of the 70s, some people started thinking about alternative sources of power, like passive solar, wind, etc.

Then America, with its collective short memory, seemed to forget all that. They went from smaller, energy-efficient vehicles (some, anyway) to SUVs. Things (esp packaging) that were made from paper or glass went to oil-intensive plastics. Look at all the new houses they've been building: do they face south or do they just face the street?

First, we ruin the north (reclamation is basically a joke), then we find ourselves right back where we are now.

Yesterday, the price of gas around here was $3.24/gal. Do you really think that if we did open up that pool of oil you mentioned, that our greedy oil companies would LET the price go down? Oh, yeah, from $3.24 to $3.02. Big effing deal.

Sue