I'm betting our usage declines over the next 30-50 years.
There have been predictions of WWIII ever since the late '40's. Each generation thinks that the perils they face is worse than any that have come before. They are almost always wrong about that.
the only way oil consumption will decrease by any significant percentage is if another form of energy emerges that's cheaper, more efficient, cleaner, and more convenient than gasoline is now. A couple of things have emerged that could decrease or eliminate our dependancy on oil, but none have taken off. Hybrid cars that can get 60 MPG. If everyone drove a hybrid sedan, our country's gas consumption could literally be cut in half. what do companies do? They make Hybrid SUVs advertised to get 30 MPG. My 1997 station wagon gets 30 MPG. Yeah it's impressive that they can make a vehicle the size of a small TANK get 30 MPG, but it kinda defeats the purpose of driving a hybrid if you're still getting the same mileage as a car made in the previous Century.
You could eliminate the need for gasoling completely by making cars that run entirely on alcohol. It can be done, but nobody seems to want to do it.
Hydrogen powered cars whose emmision is water instead of smoke. BMW is already advertising a hydrogen car on TV. IT MAKES WATER, FOR GOD'S SAKE! HOW MUCH CLEANER CAN A CAR GET? unfortunately, this would require complete overhaul of the existing fueling stations, a pricey endevour.
There's also the possibility that we'll just stop finding oil. Some predictions say the planet's oil stores will be gone in ten years. That'll certainly cut our consumption.
As to your second point: I'm not saying I think our current problems are much worse than those of any previous generation. It's just that **** keeps popping up more and more lately, and I'm just starting to notice it.
(edited so as not to be hypocritical )