Just read this interesting article about "paper planning" of a pandemic flu.

From that article:
"The three-week scenario compresses the 12-week period a pandemic wave would likely last. Among the other things that may happen in an actual pandemic are school closings, as well as blackouts or brownouts in major metro areas because of degraded service as a result of absenteeism. Internet service throughput could be reduced by 50% due to congestion, and Web browsing timeouts would become common. Airlines would cut schedules, and garbage would pile up on streets.

Many frustrations would arise. Working ATMs might be scarce, and call centers may not have enough staff to help. Health insurance claim volume would rise 20%. Auto claims are expected to fall 10%, since there would be less traffic on the road. But for those who are driving, gas prices would be high and fuel supplies reduced."

Only 2 more mutations to go and it will be easily transmittable from human to human,,,,or so I have been told.

well 12-weeks? Then going off into the mountains near my home for several months may be the answer?

I was talking to a local nurse last week who had just received training regarding the avian flu pandemic contingency for Alberta and the province here predicts 30% absenteeism. With quarantines, food and gas would almost dry up in a couple of weeks as no trucks would be allowed in or out of the city during that period...assuming there are people around to drive them.

He asked me if I was prepared for the possibility of not being allowed to leave my neighborhood...I told him I'd never considered that ever happening before.

I don't understand the 12 weeks part. I doubt that it would hit in a single wave, but probably have more of a ripple effect.

I wonder if they can really predict mutations?

Sue

The 1918 Spanish Influenza lasted over a year in several waves, each wave apparently being a different mutation of the last. There was no obvious sign it was over at the time and I think it may have been fall of 1920 or later before people realized it wasn't coming back.

There were a couple of areas that managed to avoid deaths via isolation. I can't remember the details but it was islands. I think some Eskimo communities escaped devastation by killing any outsider who persisted on approaching.

30% may be reasonable absenteeism - that's about the overall infection rate in the 1918 pandemic.

Predicting which virus is likely to appear is the entire basis of the annual vaccine production. Only vaccines for a very small number of strains is made (one to three I think), and if they guess wrong too bad.