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#109487 - 10/22/07 02:27 PM Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters
DesertFox Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 01/04/07
Posts: 339
Loc: New York, NY
"5 Disasters Coming Soon If We Don’t Rebuild U.S. Infrastructure
In the wake of the Minneapolis bridge collapse, the author—a national security expert and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations—called on Congress to stop turning an “irrational and reckless” blind eye to our crumbling public foundations. Here he reports on more cracks in American hardware that urgently need attention."

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/worst_case_scenarios/4227310.html



New York is in the top 5. Guess I better buy more gear.

But seriously, three of these disasters are predicated on natural events. Don't know that we can make cities earthquake proof any more than the designers of the Titanic could make her unsinkable. That's why we prepare for the worst. Sometimes prevention isn't possible.

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#109493 - 10/22/07 02:52 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disas [Re: DesertFox]
billym Offline
Addict

Registered: 12/01/05
Posts: 616
Loc: Oakland, California
Good ole' Cali; I get 2.
I guess I need even more stored water.

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#109698 - 10/23/07 04:13 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: DesertFox]
teacher Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/14/05
Posts: 988
Always good to indulge in some rational thinking about disasters:

My expected top 5, in no particular order -

Winter storm, Heat wave, extended traffic gridlock, major loss of services (power, water, internet), other

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#109712 - 10/23/07 04:58 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: DesertFox]
aardwolfe Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/22/01
Posts: 924
Loc: St. John's, Newfoundland
You can't prevent a hurricane or an earthquake but you can certainly mitigate the damage it would cause.

IMO part of the reason New Orleans was so badly hurt by Katrina was the lack of a "defense in depth". Everything depended on the levees holding; once the levees failed, the rest of the city had no protection. It was the classic example of a Gary Larson "Far Side" igloo (hard and crunchy on the outside, soft and chewy on the inside).
_________________________
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."
-Plutarch

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#109786 - 10/24/07 03:36 AM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: aardwolfe]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
"Always good to indulge in some rational thinking about disasters" ...

Where is the fun in that. LOL.

I get a good chuckle surfing the various "survivalist" forums. They are awash in improbable. Global nuclear war, millions dropping dead from a super-bug, zombies rising from the graves and the majority of the population deciding that common sense and civilization are not the way to go. Improbable events make for good stories.

The more probable events are natural events we know about, slow downturns in human events and localized man-made disasters. These don't make for good stories. In part because they don't lead to events which allow a comic book hero to function in the normal comic book ways. Blizzards and recession doesn't lend many opportunities for righteous and decisive gun-play and gratuitous violence.

Hunkering down, being reasonable and husbanding resources just doesn't have a heroic air. Of course what it lacks in heroic flare and it makes up in reality and effectiveness.

Which comes down to the simple question: Why are you into survival. Are you reality based and looking for practical solutions are you looking for some ego stroking posturing with an option for playing the hero.

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#109807 - 10/24/07 11:43 AM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: Art_in_FL]
KG2V Offline

Veteran

Registered: 08/19/03
Posts: 1371
Loc: Queens, New York City
Yeah - right now (and I live in NYC) - MOST of my effort is going into Personal health (I have a major health issue right now - 4 weeks in bed - joy - at least I have a laptop to keep me company), and then into recession. After that is blizards, as that is the season coming up - next spring it'll be back to hurricanes
_________________________
73 de KG2V
You are what you do when it counts - The Masso
Homepage: http://www.thegallos.com
Blog: http://kg2v.blogspot.com

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#109896 - 10/24/07 10:37 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: KG2V]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
Health and wellbeing are essential. I don't care if you have a warehouse full of supplies if your not essentially healthy it isn't going to do you much good. You don't need to by a Olympic grade athlete but everyone needs a core level of basic physical capability.

I hear you on the recession, blizzard, hurricane thing. Not many blizzards down here in FL but we are one of the few states where an entire county has been given a mandatory evacuation order because of fire. Perhaps California shares that distinction.

Recession, storms in the summer, fires and hurricanes in the winter and flooding just about any time are real issues down here. I don't think there is any location in the US entirely free of hazards.

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#109903 - 10/24/07 11:42 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: KG2V]
samhain Offline
Addict

Registered: 11/30/05
Posts: 598
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
I think if everybody did a individual threat assessment there would be some variations in them. Here in Louisiana the threat from hurricanes would vary depending on how far inland one is and what your flood zone looks like.

Personal health issues are a very valid threat to be assessed and addressed, and you are wise to focus on that and plan around it.

I chuckled at Homeland Security after 911 when they made a big push for everyone to have a "box" of supplies.

All over the US a lot of folks do that:
Hawaii, Gulf and East Coasts = we call it hurricane season.
Midwest = tornado shelters and blizzards.
North = blizzards.
West Coasts= quakes.

If you have one covered you've pretty much got all of it covered for the most part.

Getting people to build on what they already know is best.

Sorry to hear you're ill and hope you get to feeling better.

_________________________
peace,
samhain autumnwood

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#111132 - 11/02/07 02:33 AM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: samhain]
ki4buc Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/10/03
Posts: 710
Loc: Augusta, GA
Everyone should have a rough idea (planned and written out might be better, like Blast's Binder) of a "comprehensive" emergency plan.

If you have to evacuate, where would you go in all 4 directions? If you have to shelter-in-place, how many days of food do you have?

It doesn't matter if it's a hurricane, wildfire, blackout, or "matters of internal security", the preparedness is the same.

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#117602 - 12/26/07 07:29 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disas [Re: ki4buc]
Spiritwalker Offline
Member

Registered: 11/16/06
Posts: 104
Quote:
Hawaii, Gulf and East Coasts = we call it hurricane season.
Midwest = tornado shelters and blizzards.
North = blizzards.
West Coasts= quakes.


Add earthquakes to the Midwest as well, the New Madrid Seismic zone is still very active with more than 4000 events since monitoring began in the area in 1974. The last big one (8+ in 1811-12) rang the church bells in Boston, the devastation of a quake of that magnatude today would be catastrophic.

USGS
Quote:
The loss of life and destruction in recent earthquakes of only moderate magnitude (for example, 33 lives and $20 billion in the 1994 magnitude-6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake and 5,500 lives and $100 billion in the 1995 magnitude-6.9 Kobe, Japan, earthquake) dramatically emphasize the need for residents of the Mississippi Valley to prepare further for an earthquake of such magnitude. Earthquakes of moderate magnitude occur much more frequently than powerful earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 9; the probability of a moderate earthquake occurring in the New Madrid seismic zone in the near future is high. Scientists estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6 to 7 earthquake occurring in this seismic zone within the next 50 years is higher than 90%. Such an earthquake could hit the Mississippi Valley at any time.

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