The point of the longwinded post to follow is to challenge me (and you) to think about the depth and breadth of the possible threats and our preparations to deal with those threats.

The post topic is as much a philosophical question as it is a practical one. Since 9/11 I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how to prepare so as to protect my family and myself. I’ve put together BOB’s for each member of the family, I have EDC stuff up to my elbows, I got my ham license, I’ve spent a lot of money on stuff I hope I’ll never have to use and I’ve joined this great forum.

So here’s the rub, for exactly what am I planning, building and buying? I’m not an outdoorsman. My wife’s idea of ‘roughing it’ is the Holiday Inn instead of the Four Seasons. I don’t travel through wilderness areas, hunt deer, kayak, etc. All that stuff is what my DD does in Alaska. Me, I ride down interstates, walk the streets of DC, hop Amtrak, occasionally ride in airplanes. I don’t live in an earthquake or a flood prone area. Occasionally, I might be stuck at home for a few days because of snow or ice storms. But in 24 years of living in my 120 year old brick house I’ve never had reason to even consider evacuation (well, there was that roofer who set my house on fire 10 years ago, but that's another story)

Sure, I might get stuck on an interstate (think I-80 in Pennsylvania last winter) or I guess an Amtrak train crew might hold me hostage for 10 or 12 hours. But I don’t drive when the weather’s bad and it would only take a few minutes walk from a stuck train to find shelter along any part of my normal route. Could a terrorist attack strand me or render my home uninhabitable. Sure, but I’ve got lots of relatives in different parts of the country, all of whom I could get to in a few days time at the most by car.

I think I have most of the obvious and likely threats covered. If the Yellowstone super volcano erupts or we get hit by a giant meteor our futures won’t be covered by a few days rations and some stored up water. Those are extinction level events. At my age not sure I care and my kids are old enough to decide their own end of the world fates.

What I’m struggling with is the balance between risk avoidance and contingency planning. I avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong time as much as I can. I don’t drive in blizzards, don’t walk down dark alleys (literally or figuratively) and don’t stand on a beach and watch bemused as the ocean retreats way far away from the shoreline.

My contingency plan is to be prepared so that if the stuff I can’t avoid or can’t control hits the fan I and all my D*’s can survive until the 101st Airborne arrives.

(At this point you can skip the rest of the post and move on with your lives or read thru a little more detail so you can really let me know what I’m missing or let me know I’m full of it.)

Family consists of me and the DW, a crazy dog (a JRT, you who know will understand) and a couple of cats living in SE Pa. Two DD’s out on their own, one close, one far away. An elderly mom, also close by. Siblings in a variety of places. Stuck between middle age and senior citizens’ discounts at Perkins.

Job puts me in a car 10-20 hours a week and up to 150 miles from home. I own the company so if the weather’s dicey I work at home (and so do my employees). I travel to our nation’s capital by car and train on a regular basis. Carry a federal ID (I’m a beltway bandit) and know lots of govt. folks, neither of which would be helpful ITSHTF.

I have well stocked BOB’s in all the cars; my EDC is extensive ( see my earlier post ) and I have additional days of supplies, water and shelter in the house ready to throw in the car a on few minutes notice.

I don’t have weeks or months of food/water stored in the house. I don’t have extensive evacuation plans, routes, etc. I don’t have a usable firearm (nor the training to use it) and not much else in the way of personal protection. I don’t have any formal survival skills or much wilderness experience (I was raised in the country and played in fields, woods and streams around my home as a kid so I’m not “scared of nature”). Blast, I am not. (Though I have had my share of defeats at the paws of cats who didn’t want to do what I wanted them to do.)

So what am I missing in terms of threats? What’s the one thing I should have to be fully prepared that I haven’t mentioned? What really worries you? What is your philosophy of preparedness and does it match you threat reality?

Andy

Hi Andy,
I think you are on the right track without being paranoid.
Having food/water, a way to cook and stay warm without utilities, some emergency tools, extra clothes and a good first aid kit are the basics that everyone should have at home as well as in the car (even though one may travel only short distances).

The rest of the contingencies are less likely but you will still need the basics anyway.
Beyond that it depends on how you feel about the status quo; if you believe that TEOTWAWKI is around the corner then gear up. If you don't think that a big change is coming then the basics will do fine for 99% of what may happen (winter storms, power outage, flooding etc.)

Thanks, Andy, for raising this question. Without a sense of what we are preparing for we can get caught up in a mindless accummulation of gear as we convince ourselves that "If I prepare for everything, then I'm ready for anything."

Some of us may have noticed this tendency on other preparedness/survival sites--this is NOT a problem on Equipped to Survive/Survival Forum--where every preparedness issue or question is answered by advice to add more and more gear, and where no BOB is considered adequate unless it has six knives (two of which have to be exotic specimens from the Himalayas or Indonesia), two axes, a field-grade FAK capable of handling multiple victims suffering a range of afflictions from arrow wounds to burst appendices, and two firearms with 1500 rounds of ammo. Again, I want to emphasize that this "more is better, and a lot more is a lot better" approach to preparedness is not a problem on this forum.

My approach is to go with the odds. I live in coastal California where the dangers of a major earthquake or a wildfire are much more immediate than the prospect of a general breakdown of society in North America. I have actually had to deal with both quakes and fires. So, I prepare for what is likely, not what is possible. As I've said elsewhere, in preparing I ask myself "What will I certainly need?" should the big quake occur, not "What might I possibly need?" It is much more likely that my family will have to temporarily evacuate to a reception center or "bug-in" at home for a few days until power and services are restored than have to take to the wilderness and fend off marauders in some post-apocalyptic world.

I prepare for what is likely. Am I prepared to deal with a comet striking earth or a post nuclear winter? No, but I'm really not that worried.

Good points, Andy.
I guess it all depends on what your assessment of the threats your region is susceptible to. I've heard some people say that living in a city is almost completely "artificial", with all of our needs being magically delivered to a faucet, furnace, or grocery shelf on a reliable basis. As people lose their knowledge/ability to perform those once necessary tasks, they are more reliant on someone else to provide them.

When you look at what has already occurred to the just the US in the last 100 years or so, you'll see that there are a lot of potential threats to the "Fragile Shell" of modern society. Some things haven't occurred in the US, but could. I put together a little look at these threats at http://tirec.mysite.com/rich_text_2.html

I'm still trying to figure out just how much to prepare and for what. Money, time, space, family requirements all have to be figured in for me.

Good luck and thanks for the reality check.

Not all the things I prepare for are major mass-extinction level events.

What I try to do is be prepared for WHATEVER happens. A short while back I took my daughter to a horse show. (She placed sixth in a field of 17 - this was her second show.) One of the people in the group had a headache, and wanted some aspirin. I had the aspirin. Another person cut her finger - I had the antibiotic ointment and the bandage.

I use my SAK at least 3 or 4 times a day.

With what I carry, I could do nicely for an extended period in just about any kind of weather and terrain. Will I need it? Hopefully not, but if I DO need it and don't have it shame on me.

I prepare because I'm not willing to lay down and give up. I prepare because being prepared makes my mind easier, and sometimes makes my life easier.

Besides. It's just plain fun sometimes to work on the gear.

Hi Andy

Your approach is similar to mine. Cover the most probable things. You mention that you travel to DC by both train and car. I assume you are going to meetings with you clients. I've been around DC a long time, and have had a couple of experiences that you might want to include in your plans.

In 1968 during the riots, public transport shut down. There were only a few safe routes in and out of the city, and only by car/motorcycle/walking. I don't see anything like riots in the cards, but even a small terrorist attack would, I think have the same effect. You might have to either walk a long way, or hunker down in your client's building.

I was also in the Pentagon for a meeting the day when, during a snowstorm, an Air Florida jet crashed into the Potomac right next to us. Didn't make it home until the next day. The bus that was supposed to pick everyone up never showed. . .

It sounds like you have everything pretty much covered, but if you haven't thought about what happens when you are in that meeting in downtown DC, it would be worth some extra thought. And given the increased security in some of the buildings, you may not even get a SAK in with you. I've seen several confiscated. Makes planning harder.

billym, If the big one comes it will be a statistical anomaly and very annoying. At that point all bets are off and no amount of preparation will be enough. But regardless if you or I make it through I think the human race will. Just us and the cockroaches...



Grant, apparently you don't watch enough TV, not including the SciFi channel I think I could have seen a half dozen shows last week on the end of the world.

I agree, prepare for what is most likely to happen and for what I can manage in those circumstances.


Tirec, read thru your site, I won't be able to sleep for a week, criminey! I just go back to what my friend the mathematician tells me about statistics "they're only numbers'.



Farmer, Amen brother!



Fortunately one of my sibs lives in the District so even if public transport is out or I can't drive I could probably walk there in a few hours time and my EDC would carry me thru. Haven't had any trouble with the DR PSK at my prinicpal work place but I leave the knives and other items of interest home when I need to go places where I have to pass thru security check points.

That's a whole other rant, the 'criminalization' of self protection and stripping of our kids' instinct for survival. (Next time on Oprah, 'how to fight off a mugger using Martha Stewart pillowcase...'

Sorry for going off topic.

According to your post, you seem to be more prepared for a bug-out than for a stay home/hunker down situation.

To tell the truth, I think bugging out is the last thing to prepare for, and staying home, self-contained, is the first.

Although you're not subject to much in the way of natural disasters, I suspect that man-made ones could cause lots of trouble.

Truck strike? Everything moves on trucks.

Economy collapse? Some say that if/when another depression hits the U.S., it will make the last one look like a picnic.

Terrorist attack or threat of same. Since no one would really know where it was coming from, it would be difficult to make plans within a very short time frame. Deliberate water contamination? Bomb to the local power source? Just a few little bombs taking down overpasses could probably cause quite a mess.

But walking the streets of D.C. Ooooooh! Now THAT'S danger!

Sue

I like what you say here. The easiest way to deal with a survival situation is *not to be there* -- that is, to live with a thoughtful and non-paranoid eye to the real hazards you might face, and shape your behaviour so that you are less likely to be in the middle of it.

That isn't possible 100% of the time. (Even as I speak, the carpet glue is off-gassing in my sealed bunker! LOL ;-). But I wouldn't be surprised if half of the obvious and likely hazards can be avoided. (Talking on a cell phone while you drive, for example?)

For the same reasons, I respect any survival manual that dedicates the first third of the book to "keeping your precious hide out of survival situations."

For example: I do drive in blizzards, on occasion. But if it's slick and visibility bad, I avoid rush hour whenvever possible. I buy the best ice tires available for my DW and myself (so when the fancy 4x4 SUV ahead of me starts doing 360s at 70 MPH, I have the option to be somewhere else, quickly). And if one of us is caught in a whiteout, during the daily commute, it's standard practice to grab a hotel room if you need one (or pull over and camp out for a while -- full kit in trunk).

Anyway, that's a long-winded way to say that awareness and understanding are the foundation of staying alive and well. The hardware etc. comes second (though it's entirely addictive to guys like me).

Susan, you raise a fundamental issue and one I was trying to address in my typical verbose story-telling style. The bug out scenario is the one that will likely occur without much warning and the need will be to act quickly. Also, it would likely to be of relatively short duration. (3-10 days)

What you're saying, I believe, is that there are scenarios of systemic collapse on a national basis that brings us back to maybe the 1950's or earlier. And things get rough and maybe we'll need to not venture out into public because there is chaos in the streets.

That's possible, but not probable to my way of thinking. If it does happen I think observant people will see it coming and prepare. ITSHTF nationally after a couple of weeks it will be clear that help is either on the way or it ain't coming and we're all screwed. (except for those with a year or two's worth of freeze dried food, a bunker and plenty of ammo) But I can't see a risk benefit anlaysis that supports that kind of investment. Hey, if I'm wrong you can have my share of what's left.

Practically speaking, I could hold up in my house, with or without electricity for a week or two. If I need to vacate my part of the country I have family who are far enough away that they will not likely be affected. If it's really bad I'll drive up Rt 41 to Amish country. They're the people you want to know if things go bad!

Andy

P.S. I grew up in the 50's, wouldn't mind living that again.

Andy, it looks like you have a very nice set-up. Given the heavy development in the DC metropolitan area, you could probably improvise much of what you might lack. Consider how Les Stroud used discarded items in several of his episodes during the first season of his show. You've given this much thought, which is key. Kudos.

Andy,

It sounds like you've got your bases covered. You analyzed possible threats and planned accordingly. Time to sit back with a fine whiskey (I suggest Maker's Mark) and take a break. Then get up and check your expiration dates.

Then start working on converting friends and neighbors (hopefully they are one and the same).

TEOTWAWKI is low on my list of perceived threats. I fear (though maybe not enough) an accident in the wilds, hurricanes (and all the badness they bring), and accidents while travelling (I've seen hospitals in China. *shudder* ). Having watched Houston try to evacuate hurricane Rita I'm painfully aware that bugging in is really our only option. Plans have been made accordingly.


No one else in the world is.

I've always followed the rule, prepare for the most likely event.
But then, I also think you really don't need to have any specific disaster in mind to prepare for. So my philosophy is just to cover the general necessities and be flexible with everything else, because no matter how much you try and prepare for, chances are you're never going to cover it all. The good thing is, just a few basics like water, food and money can cover almost any situation, from flood, earthquakes, ice storms, blackouts, terrorist attacks, riots, interruption of services, etc. The same items stored in a car would cover almost any instance where you'd be stuck in your car, like a breakdown, blizzard, evacuations, etc. I don't think it really matters what the problem is, the basics remain the same.

In terms of probability, I'd guess that most of the problems that people need to prepare for are personal (local) problems, not the widespread natural disasters like Katrina or a mega tsunami. Financial hardship would probably rank #1 in terms of probability, followed by theft and fire (as you probably found out). A decent fire safe with some extra savings inside would be a good preparation for any of those situations, and could also be considered a long term preparation. IF you were forced to bug out, at least you would have some comfort in knowing that the things you left behind would be somewhat protected from the average looter and might still be there when you return. I've gone through a small house fire, and a good fire safe quickly became the #1 purchase.

In my case, I'm lucky that I really don't buy any items specifically for preparing. I already have camping and hiking supplies, but I buy them for personal use, the fact that they might be useful in an emergency is just an added benefit. Honestly, I don't think it's a good idea to spend a lot of money on items you don't use, because if you're not using it now, the chances are you're not gonnna use it in the future either. That money would be better spent purchasing extra things that you currently do use.

Hey Andy, seems to me you are in the right frame of mind more or less. Having thought through and researched the notion of what it is you are likely to need to be prepared for, you have a better idea what to expect and how to respond.

One thing I would elaborate on is the likelihood of armed confrontation. Not going where you shouldn't be is a great step toward avoiding such a situation, but sometimes it cannot be avoided. Given the frequency with which carjackings, home invasions, parking lot assaults and such occur, I'm convinced part of my preparedness issue is being well armed and able to defend myself. It seems to me the prevalence of criminal activity in our country is getting worse overall, not better. It also seems that there's a lot of people who are on the edge, just waiting for some major incident as an excuse to loot, harm, or otherwise disturb the peace and order of our society.

Firearms are not for everyone, and you should not bother with them if you are not certain you can use them when the time comes, and be responsible about having them otherwise. It is just as disconcerting to contemplate the number of people out there who have firearms and probably shouldn't as to consider those who would willingly use them to commit offensive acts against the public.

As far as I can tell, it was the only hole in your philosophy I could poke. Otherwise I would say you are there.

gryps, for just that reason I've taken to carrying a second wallet with stuff in it that will allow me to improvise. For instance, I carry a couple of water purification tablets in factory foil packages and some alcohol wipes. Find a 2 liter soda bottle and I'm set as long as I can find a water source. Your advice is right on, isn't improvisation part of the Seal doctrine?

Blast, I'm speechless. Or is it shock?



That's what I'm thinking as well, you said it much more directly than I did.



That's a whopper of a discussion. In the interest of full and open disclosure I do own a shotgun which I haven't fired in a couple of decades. Never fired a handgun. If I were wandering through bear country I'd probably not be shy about taking a 12 guage with me. But keeping a loaded weapon in the house is not my style. And I couldn't possibly take it anywhere I travel, especially on business. If Susan's worse case scenarios begin to look likely I might walk over to the local sporting goods store and pick up a couple of boxes of shells with which I would protect home and hearth (and, I can see the replys coming now, have my gun serviced).

I have no problem with folks owning guns legally and using them in a responsible manner. Not for me though. The concept of self defense and the eroding of our rights to be prepared to execute it is another and a serious discussion to have.

Thanks to all for your kind words and suggestions.

My two cents: Your 'disasters' are in part seasonal. You know you'll have a blizzard somewhere along in spring, as you're in the path of both the eastward cold fronts and the northward warm fronts. Plan on being stranded in your car, at work, and at home, and you'll be set for that. You may also have hurricane remnants sweeping into Southeastern Pennsylvania during the late summers. Plan on being stranded in your car, at work, and at home. However, the dangers from the two strandings are very different. Cold vs. flood waters.

Most people do not live in areas where terrorism is, in my very humble opinion, a legitimate concern. You, however, do work in the District. I would have a bag with me at the times I'm in Washington that would have water, glowsticks, leather gloves, dust masks, a couple or three FRS radios, a few dollars in quarters for payphones, a bandana, and such other items as I could comfortably carry over my shoulder where ever I go. (I recommend the same thing in the San Francisco Bay Area which is earthquake country.)

Blizzards come when the forecast is for rain, so you have no time to prepare for that. Hurricanes come with plenty of warning, but sometimes veer off the predicted course, so you may have no time to prepare. So I'd be ready to shelter at home. In your area, winters are generally not severe, but I'd be prepared for at least a week without power during a very cold winter. If trees are down, you may not be able to leave for some period of time; if the snow was deep, it may sit there a few days; if it ices over, roads may not be driveable. Etc.

If you can't get out before a hurricane veers into your house, you may have little or no structure left. I'd be prepared for providing my own shelter during the rains that come after the hurricane has passed over and before the streets and roads are cleared for driving away.

My general theory is to be prepared to shelter in place. Everyone leaves, and you end up with no motel rooms available for miles around, no gas at the stations as no one filled up before leaving home, few or no groceries as everyone stocks up in a panic, etc.

I know others prepare by having guns, but I have none. If you're not willing to kill someone with it, you have to be prepared to be killed holding it (or by it when they take it away). In the general disasters of blizzards and hurricanes, few people are killed by criminals, many are killed by driving across flooded roads. My advice: don't drive across flooded roads, and you'll be fine. (If the disaster occurs while you're at the Pentagon, you'll be better served by the contents of your bail out bag. :->)

I wouldn't worry about having a gun. I'd worry about having seasonally and locationally appropriate survival gear in my car, my home, and my office. It sounds to me like your pretty much set; I'd add supplies to your home and office to sit out a major storm for a week, maybe more. The weather in your area is not usually that severe.

This pretty well sums it up, IMO. The basics, the essentials, are always the same (in no particular order): shelter, warmth, water, food, and basic medical supplies/treatment. If you have secured those, survival goes from a mere possibility to a probability.

The philosophical side of evaluating what we are preparing for has more to do with motivation than anything else. It's perhaps a little boring to discuss readiness for a weather-related power outage, but exciting to talk about a massive disruption of the whole social and governmental order. If the latter motivates you to assemble those essentials for your family, fine - you'll be ready for the power outage, too.

I have begun a shift away from specific emergency preparedness toward securing those essentials. Oh, I have to consider some likely scenarios like everyone else - hence the snow shovel, extra gloves and boots that go in the back of the car during the winter. Long-term preparedness, however, is now simply a focus on providing those essentials for a reasonable period of time under the assumption that outside aid will be a day late and a dollar short.

And guess what - it's still kinda fun...

Philip, thanks for the considered and thoughtful response. I'm working towards the goal being able to ride out some sort of interruption to "normal" life at home for a couple of weeks, I'm good now for at least a week. I do carry a substantial EDC in my work bag. (see this post)
My intent in writing the orginal post was to gain an appreciation of other's thought processes and considerations. For me it's been a very informative and useful discussion.



Well said, sir!

A lot of good replies to this topic already. In central Ohio, we don't need to worry too much about hurricanes, tsunamis, or earthquakes. There are much more interesting terrorist targets out there than where I am at. Primarily concerned with ice/snow storms, power outages, tornado, fire.

Shelter in place for several days, keeping the sump pump and the fireplace fan running are the main concerns for most winter emergencies. Keeping emergency supplies in the car for winter breakdowns is also important.

Not too worried about MZB's at this point but there have been an occasional home invasion in our area. Rare, but has happened.

I have plenty of camping supplies from my time working with the scouts. I have a generator, need to get a DC sump pump for when I'm not home. Have a storage battery and inverter for the fireplace fan for short outages. Have guns and know how to use them. My food storage is haphazard, nothing planned in specific, but we won't starve in three days. Was going to say that I was in reasonable shape for most typical emergencies in my area, but it seems like there is always something that still needs done.

I stumbled onto this forum several years ago chasing a link for a backpacking trip. It has helped me to focus my efforts for the expected short term outages and also to add a few items to my EDC.

Good question. Mostly I'm prepared because I want to keep working on my projects without being stopped by lack of a tool, info or item.

Beyond that, I realize that there will be short interuptions of services to my home and other minor emergencies.

those two things coer most of my "prep" mindset.

Teacher

PS Oh, yeas. I also like getting new gear/

Andy, thanks for sharing a well thought-out approach to your own circumstances.

A few thoughts on your final question: What’s the one thing I should have to be fully prepared that I haven’t mentioned? Ignoring your garden variety asteroid strike or seismic- or volcanic-induced tsunamis but considering your easterly commutes, a couple of things you may have considered, but didn't mention specifically. Enough risk to warrant planning? Your call.

— there's some history of seismic activity in the area, albeit not on a west coast scale.

— hurricanes have hit the upper east coast from time to time. Washington D.C.'s been impacted a couple of times, discussed here.

— looks like ten or so nuclear power plants around your area.

— other than "physical" terrorism — cyber-terrorism is a growing concern among some folks.

I prepare for hurricanes specifically & nuclear fallout survival, which covers about any possible emergency that could occur.

I have found that the more prepared that I am, the less stuff that occurs in the "Bo zone" (an inside joke/comment fm my active duty days). I worry less about "what if's" & enjoy my life better!!

I agree that natural forces are more likely to cause major disruptions than bad guys. I've experienced more than a couple of hurricanes (I got married the weekend Hurricane Agnes hit the east coast, the darn thing chased us for a week on our honeymoon to New England).

Seeker, doesn't the New Cannan fault line run through part of Ohio? The first earthquake I experienced was in South Bend, Indiana.

The threat of a nuke power plant gone bad is a consideration. I live about 90 miles down river from Three Mile Island (actually have been there a couple of times not long after the incident). Duct tape anyone?

But the most frequent and pain-in-the-kazoo problem is snow and ice storms. I'd appreciate recommendations about back-up power systems.

I think the question we all want to ask ourselves is not have we done enough (and buying gear is fun) but have we thought about how to react to situtations and plan accordingly. One of my favorite sayings is "In a crisis you don't rise to your level of expectations, you fall to your level of training."

I have not heard of the New Cannan fault line in my area of Ohio. Its possible. I believe that the New Madrid fault has been felt in Ohio. There have been several earthquakes near me during my 40+ years in the state, but I have never felt them. I know that the Ohio Basic Building Code seismic zone for this area is the lowest value that can be designed to in the state. Most of the state is a very low value.

Snow & ice are also my greatest concern. When I had a well & an all electric house, I bought a 4500 watt generator that fell into my lap very cheaply. It sat for a few years, then based on nasty warning letters from my electric co about improperly connected equipment (prior to y2k), I installed a double pole safety switch. I am now on county water and the well has been abandoned in place (had to completely sever connection to avoid installing a backflow preventor valve and paying for annual inspections). Works well but is a bit of a pain to haul out of the garage and drag halfway around the house in the snow so that the cable can reach. Need to install a four prong outlet on the side of the house and wire to the switch box. Currently run a 50 ft cable through the basement window and stuff old towels around the cable to keep the draft down. 5 gal tank on the generator and I keep two 5 gal gas cans in garage. The safety switch allocates the power to designated circuit breakers. I previously had the well pump (240v), sump pump, & kitchen wall outlets on the switch box. Need to re-allocate now that I don't have a well pump anymore.

If the sump isn't running (rare) then I have a marine storage battery with an inverter to plug my woodstove fan into. Battery is stored in the garage & can be plugged together in a matter of minutes. I have a 20 yr old "big buck" wood stove that can pretty much drive you out of the house if it gets really stoked up. If I can keep the fan running and not have to open the doors to the stove, then I can keep the house warm.

I have a kerosine heater that hasn't been run in 8 years that I need to check out & see if it will start. On my to-do list.

I really need to install a backup to the sump pump. Either DC or water powered. Both have issues. DC backup lasts 12 to 15 hours. Last big ice storm had some people out for days. Water powered pumps require that the outside water source have pressure and uses about one gallon for each gallon pumped. Not very efficient. Decisions ... decisions.

I guess it is that my perspective is of course based on my life experiences, but it seems to me that it is far more commmon to face a survival issue due to criminal activity in this day and age than natural(earthquakes, hurricanes, things falling from the sky) or synthetic(Chernobyl, WMD, other things falling from the sky) disasters. Even with my numerous romps into the big forest and beyond, I've faced far more near survival SHTF scenarios where I was darned glad I was packing a gun, even though I've seldom deployed one. Let's face it, even a multi-tool is going to become an inadquate implement in such a situation, though it will be far more employable as a deterrent than say a space blanket would be. IMHO, the threat is common enough to warrant me having and being willing to use a firearm on a regular basis, both at home and while in transit, where I can reasonably expect to get away with doing so. This is not a universal condition, and on a case by case basis, each person must make that determination for themselves. I will say that in so doing, I am not only better prepared defensively, but I am also in a mindset where I am more aware of my surroundings just because I am armed. It seems like the very aspect of being armed naturally raises my anxiety level to what I would consider an appropriate level to enhance threat avoidance. I think that is a more common trait amongst responsible gun owners as well.

I've been up close and personal with one tornado in my life. I've never been lost in the big forest or the big city for more than an hour, despite not always entering those realms under the most prepared or ideal conditions. I have been shot at more than once, and I've been accosted both in the city and on the trail, and will not face those situations without being armed again unless under the most dire need. Each of us must respond according to our own impression of what is and isn't a risk, and prioritize those risks and our responses accordingly. I know mine are different from others, and each are nonetheless just as real I reckon.

Here in the UK we are relatively short on disasters. No volcanoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes.

Actually we do get earthquakes. Little ones most years, up to 6 on the Richter scale once a century. And apparently we have the world record for highest reported incidence of tornadoes - which is mostly because they all get observed, and most of them are small, but recently we've been getting a big one roughly once a year. But we're pretty safe from hurricanes and volcanoes.

Flooding is becoming quite common - my house is on high ground. Other than that it's mostly man-made disasters. Bird flu, or similar. Terrorist activity - eg poisoning the water. Power cuts are rare where I live, but a wide variety of things can cause one. A few years ago we had a fuel strikes; they only lasted a week, but that was enough for supermarkets to start running out of some foods.

My plan for most things is to shelter in place. In the UK there aren't a lot of places to bug-out to.

Andy,
I am fairly new to this forum and when I saw this subject I couldn't help but respond. I am always preparing for extended power outages,tornados,storms,and floods and also for the 911 flavor of threat. (I sandbagged at a losing battle in the flood of 93. when I finally gave out, all the hard work moved a kidney stone).

I live in a mega-multinational community and there are at least two documented connections between people in my community and the bad guys and recently a third. If people believe that terrorist attacks will only happen in places like New York, then that is what the terrorists want you to believe.

Among the Muslim in my community, I have absolutely no ill will toward them. I am a familiar face in areas where Muslims happen to congregate. I'm convinced that the bad element is a very tiny percentage of less than 1% of the Muslim population here, if there are any still around.

But it is because of that uncertainty, that one must be prepared with the essentials of a BOB and backup food, water and medical supplies. If something should happen, the government can't be expected to bail you out; and the government has already proven that their reaction time is too slow.

And lastly, I'm a gear nut. My BOB and various backpacks and hiking equipment are an obsessive hobby with me. It's just too much fun with practical value.

Hiker1,

Welcome to the forum and thanks for your input. I think many of us on this forum share your concerns about being prepared for whatever comes our way and disrupts our normal routines. I believe that it comes down to taking responsibility for our own lives (and those of our loved ones) when things go bad rather than relying on others. At least for that relatively short time it takes for the official world to get their act together and respond.

I do not place the local first responders in the group of folks for whom we would have to wait. They have saved my butt a couple of times and I give them all due credit. To all the EMTs, LEOs and fire folks out there, THANKS! But, as with all professionals (waiters, doctors, teachers, etc.), the more I can do to make it easier for them to do their jobs the better I feel. So by being prepared and knowledgeable I can make it easier for them to help those who can't help themselves.

Andy

I learned the "be prepared" attitude in the mid-70s as an AirForce EMT in central Alaska. We looked after the military and civilian community as needed where-ever and whenever for what ever. Responding to emergencies in minus 70 degrees was a learning experience. It was just me and my partner..no cavalry unless there was a literal fire or gas spilled all over. Air splints don't work, tape won't stick, IV lines freeze up, fingers freeze when you have to work without your gloves on, tires get low at the worst time, ...you name it. It was great fun. Everything else after that was easier.