Andy, it looks like you have a very nice set-up. Given the heavy development in the DC metropolitan area, you could probably improvise much of what you might lack. Consider how Les Stroud used discarded items in several of his episodes during the first season of his show. You've given this much thought, which is key. Kudos.

Andy,

It sounds like you've got your bases covered. You analyzed possible threats and planned accordingly. Time to sit back with a fine whiskey (I suggest Maker's Mark) and take a break. Then get up and check your expiration dates.

Then start working on converting friends and neighbors (hopefully they are one and the same).

TEOTWAWKI is low on my list of perceived threats. I fear (though maybe not enough) an accident in the wilds, hurricanes (and all the badness they bring), and accidents while travelling (I've seen hospitals in China. *shudder* ). Having watched Houston try to evacuate hurricane Rita I'm painfully aware that bugging in is really our only option. Plans have been made accordingly.


No one else in the world is.

I've always followed the rule, prepare for the most likely event.
But then, I also think you really don't need to have any specific disaster in mind to prepare for. So my philosophy is just to cover the general necessities and be flexible with everything else, because no matter how much you try and prepare for, chances are you're never going to cover it all. The good thing is, just a few basics like water, food and money can cover almost any situation, from flood, earthquakes, ice storms, blackouts, terrorist attacks, riots, interruption of services, etc. The same items stored in a car would cover almost any instance where you'd be stuck in your car, like a breakdown, blizzard, evacuations, etc. I don't think it really matters what the problem is, the basics remain the same.

In terms of probability, I'd guess that most of the problems that people need to prepare for are personal (local) problems, not the widespread natural disasters like Katrina or a mega tsunami. Financial hardship would probably rank #1 in terms of probability, followed by theft and fire (as you probably found out). A decent fire safe with some extra savings inside would be a good preparation for any of those situations, and could also be considered a long term preparation. IF you were forced to bug out, at least you would have some comfort in knowing that the things you left behind would be somewhat protected from the average looter and might still be there when you return. I've gone through a small house fire, and a good fire safe quickly became the #1 purchase.

In my case, I'm lucky that I really don't buy any items specifically for preparing. I already have camping and hiking supplies, but I buy them for personal use, the fact that they might be useful in an emergency is just an added benefit. Honestly, I don't think it's a good idea to spend a lot of money on items you don't use, because if you're not using it now, the chances are you're not gonnna use it in the future either. That money would be better spent purchasing extra things that you currently do use.

Hey Andy, seems to me you are in the right frame of mind more or less. Having thought through and researched the notion of what it is you are likely to need to be prepared for, you have a better idea what to expect and how to respond.

One thing I would elaborate on is the likelihood of armed confrontation. Not going where you shouldn't be is a great step toward avoiding such a situation, but sometimes it cannot be avoided. Given the frequency with which carjackings, home invasions, parking lot assaults and such occur, I'm convinced part of my preparedness issue is being well armed and able to defend myself. It seems to me the prevalence of criminal activity in our country is getting worse overall, not better. It also seems that there's a lot of people who are on the edge, just waiting for some major incident as an excuse to loot, harm, or otherwise disturb the peace and order of our society.

Firearms are not for everyone, and you should not bother with them if you are not certain you can use them when the time comes, and be responsible about having them otherwise. It is just as disconcerting to contemplate the number of people out there who have firearms and probably shouldn't as to consider those who would willingly use them to commit offensive acts against the public.

As far as I can tell, it was the only hole in your philosophy I could poke. Otherwise I would say you are there.

gryps, for just that reason I've taken to carrying a second wallet with stuff in it that will allow me to improvise. For instance, I carry a couple of water purification tablets in factory foil packages and some alcohol wipes. Find a 2 liter soda bottle and I'm set as long as I can find a water source. Your advice is right on, isn't improvisation part of the Seal doctrine?

Blast, I'm speechless. Or is it shock?



That's what I'm thinking as well, you said it much more directly than I did.



That's a whopper of a discussion. In the interest of full and open disclosure I do own a shotgun which I haven't fired in a couple of decades. Never fired a handgun. If I were wandering through bear country I'd probably not be shy about taking a 12 guage with me. But keeping a loaded weapon in the house is not my style. And I couldn't possibly take it anywhere I travel, especially on business. If Susan's worse case scenarios begin to look likely I might walk over to the local sporting goods store and pick up a couple of boxes of shells with which I would protect home and hearth (and, I can see the replys coming now, have my gun serviced).

I have no problem with folks owning guns legally and using them in a responsible manner. Not for me though. The concept of self defense and the eroding of our rights to be prepared to execute it is another and a serious discussion to have.

Thanks to all for your kind words and suggestions.

My two cents: Your 'disasters' are in part seasonal. You know you'll have a blizzard somewhere along in spring, as you're in the path of both the eastward cold fronts and the northward warm fronts. Plan on being stranded in your car, at work, and at home, and you'll be set for that. You may also have hurricane remnants sweeping into Southeastern Pennsylvania during the late summers. Plan on being stranded in your car, at work, and at home. However, the dangers from the two strandings are very different. Cold vs. flood waters.

Most people do not live in areas where terrorism is, in my very humble opinion, a legitimate concern. You, however, do work in the District. I would have a bag with me at the times I'm in Washington that would have water, glowsticks, leather gloves, dust masks, a couple or three FRS radios, a few dollars in quarters for payphones, a bandana, and such other items as I could comfortably carry over my shoulder where ever I go. (I recommend the same thing in the San Francisco Bay Area which is earthquake country.)

Blizzards come when the forecast is for rain, so you have no time to prepare for that. Hurricanes come with plenty of warning, but sometimes veer off the predicted course, so you may have no time to prepare. So I'd be ready to shelter at home. In your area, winters are generally not severe, but I'd be prepared for at least a week without power during a very cold winter. If trees are down, you may not be able to leave for some period of time; if the snow was deep, it may sit there a few days; if it ices over, roads may not be driveable. Etc.

If you can't get out before a hurricane veers into your house, you may have little or no structure left. I'd be prepared for providing my own shelter during the rains that come after the hurricane has passed over and before the streets and roads are cleared for driving away.

My general theory is to be prepared to shelter in place. Everyone leaves, and you end up with no motel rooms available for miles around, no gas at the stations as no one filled up before leaving home, few or no groceries as everyone stocks up in a panic, etc.

I know others prepare by having guns, but I have none. If you're not willing to kill someone with it, you have to be prepared to be killed holding it (or by it when they take it away). In the general disasters of blizzards and hurricanes, few people are killed by criminals, many are killed by driving across flooded roads. My advice: don't drive across flooded roads, and you'll be fine. (If the disaster occurs while you're at the Pentagon, you'll be better served by the contents of your bail out bag. :->)

I wouldn't worry about having a gun. I'd worry about having seasonally and locationally appropriate survival gear in my car, my home, and my office. It sounds to me like your pretty much set; I'd add supplies to your home and office to sit out a major storm for a week, maybe more. The weather in your area is not usually that severe.

This pretty well sums it up, IMO. The basics, the essentials, are always the same (in no particular order): shelter, warmth, water, food, and basic medical supplies/treatment. If you have secured those, survival goes from a mere possibility to a probability.

The philosophical side of evaluating what we are preparing for has more to do with motivation than anything else. It's perhaps a little boring to discuss readiness for a weather-related power outage, but exciting to talk about a massive disruption of the whole social and governmental order. If the latter motivates you to assemble those essentials for your family, fine - you'll be ready for the power outage, too.

I have begun a shift away from specific emergency preparedness toward securing those essentials. Oh, I have to consider some likely scenarios like everyone else - hence the snow shovel, extra gloves and boots that go in the back of the car during the winter. Long-term preparedness, however, is now simply a focus on providing those essentials for a reasonable period of time under the assumption that outside aid will be a day late and a dollar short.

And guess what - it's still kinda fun...

Philip, thanks for the considered and thoughtful response. I'm working towards the goal being able to ride out some sort of interruption to "normal" life at home for a couple of weeks, I'm good now for at least a week. I do carry a substantial EDC in my work bag. (see this post)
My intent in writing the orginal post was to gain an appreciation of other's thought processes and considerations. For me it's been a very informative and useful discussion.



Well said, sir!

A lot of good replies to this topic already. In central Ohio, we don't need to worry too much about hurricanes, tsunamis, or earthquakes. There are much more interesting terrorist targets out there than where I am at. Primarily concerned with ice/snow storms, power outages, tornado, fire.

Shelter in place for several days, keeping the sump pump and the fireplace fan running are the main concerns for most winter emergencies. Keeping emergency supplies in the car for winter breakdowns is also important.

Not too worried about MZB's at this point but there have been an occasional home invasion in our area. Rare, but has happened.

I have plenty of camping supplies from my time working with the scouts. I have a generator, need to get a DC sump pump for when I'm not home. Have a storage battery and inverter for the fireplace fan for short outages. Have guns and know how to use them. My food storage is haphazard, nothing planned in specific, but we won't starve in three days. Was going to say that I was in reasonable shape for most typical emergencies in my area, but it seems like there is always something that still needs done.

I stumbled onto this forum several years ago chasing a link for a backpacking trip. It has helped me to focus my efforts for the expected short term outages and also to add a few items to my EDC.

Good question. Mostly I'm prepared because I want to keep working on my projects without being stopped by lack of a tool, info or item.

Beyond that, I realize that there will be short interuptions of services to my home and other minor emergencies.

those two things coer most of my "prep" mindset.

Teacher

PS Oh, yeas. I also like getting new gear/