While I agree that the military will arrive at some point, I look to New Orleans for my lesson on that. I have no expectation of help from my government for days at the very best, for weeks probably.

Given my geography, I'm not convinced roads will be opened any time soon - there are only two major highways on the peninsula, and I expect them to be impassable from overpass collapse, debris, and dead cars. There is one rail line, but it, too, goes over city streets on a number of viaducts, and any earthquake may twist the rails enough to stop traffic.

Depending on what bridges drop, our best be may be the Bay.

I agree, though, that our best bet is to survive in place because that's where the aid will come. I'm considering some alternative shelter, though, as the result of another post concerning trying to hike out. I need to take into account age and health, though, and whether a shelter reachable on foot in a day or two is 'out of the area.'

The entire West Coast is prone to earthquakes in high-density areas, of course, so this is not an idle exercise only for the San Francisco Bay Area. My particular problem is being on a peninsula with only two major highways for transportation, both subject to traffic-stopping damage in an earthquake (one is a stone's throw from the San Andreas Fault for much of its length).