Your concluding example reminds me of a search over twenty years ago, when we (Pima County SAR) were just beginning to integrate math into our operations, especially POD. We had a search for a missing guy, and we were rolling along, confining the search area, using both ground teams and air searches, and working up our probabilities on a state of the art calculator. After about five hours, we looked at the probabilities, and our coverage, and were concluding that our subject was not within the area. This was confirmed right on cue as a call came from a sheriff's investigator that the subject had been located at home. We always included background investigations on any search that went beyond five minutes.

I am surprised that there is controversy over the use of air resources. Nothing is perfect, not even well trained ground troops. To me one of the great pleasures of SAR operations was the way we cooperated with both state and AF choppers, often dramatically increasing our efficiency and/or coverage, with frequent beneficial effects for the victim. It is a shame that people get focused on any one technique as "the" way to save those in need. I love helos and planes, but it didn't keep me from pounding ground to get to the victim.

Maybe it has to with the size and diversity of the group, but we never had to "ration" our resources on an initial response; in fact, we often drew positive responses because it was our policy to go out immediately in whatever conditions were prevailing. If the search continued, we usually had follow on folks who were able to keep the effort going.