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#104587 - 09/04/07 06:07 PM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning? [Re: xbanker]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2851
Loc: La-USA
A very good exercise!

If I am at home when they warning is received, I make calls to get people coming home immediately or headed to a certain small town in the state of Arkansas. Then I open the Nuclear War Survival Skills manual to Chapter 4: Evacuation. Each person at home gets a category of things to round up (the DW would do the packing for herself & the kids). Load up the vehicle and be headed to Arkansas within 2 hours of notification.

If I am not at home, I call the DW & direct her to follow Chapter 4 & be on the road in 2 hours, per contingency plan ****.

I have several contingency plans that cover short & long range bug outs, as well as "Shelter-in-place" plans.

All emergency supplies are packaged to be moved quickly from storage into the shelter or into the vehicles.

_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#104589 - 09/04/07 06:16 PM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning? [Re: xbanker]
Frank2135 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 04/26/07
Posts: 266
Loc: Ohio, USA
1. Verify safety of family and friends.
2. Assess food, water, energy and medical supplies and supplement where needed.
3. Contact FEMA to find out how I can help after the event. Because there, but for the grace of God, go I.

Frank2135
_________________________
All we can do is all we can do.

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#104611 - 09/04/07 08:02 PM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: xbanker]
xbanker Offline
Addict

Registered: 04/21/05
Posts: 484
Loc: Anthem, AZ USA
I’m not a TEOTWAWKI kind of guy by any stretch. Like most here, believe in a match-up between likely risks in my little corner of the world and reasonable preparations for those risks. It’s prudent, it’s fun – and it allows me to rationalize the occasional purchase (for my wife’s benefit). grin

But, the program reminded me that my planning mostly ignored those couple of events that, though far removed from my home, could somehow impact me in ways I hadn’t much considered. Whether or not you believe the Cumbre Vieja volcano will someday cause a giant dirt clod to slide into the ocean, causing a mega-tsunami, maybe isn’t the point.

Again, the OP was just an exercise to stimulate some thought about events outside our immediate environments, and whether they merit inclusion in our personal preparedness plans.

An aside: the disparity in impact-assessment among those posting is interesting. Ranging from "...it will really only be an inconvenience for most of us" to "...it would cripple us." All from people whose opinion I respect. Small wonder FEMA has a tough time.

For my own part, I think the after-effects would be far-reaching...impact on the economy, financial markets, supply chain etc.

One thing I think we can agree on — every time Mother Nature raises the bar, we're forced to re-examine our thinking and the sufficiency of our collective preparedness.
_________________________
"Things that have never happened before happen all the time." — Scott Sagan, The Limits of Safety

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#104615 - 09/04/07 08:20 PM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: xbanker]
thtimster Offline
Newbie

Registered: 02/08/07
Posts: 45
If it is a tsunami & not a giant tidal wave wouldn't the worst occur at the shore & then depending on how much water is displaced, the land inward? If this were the case airports could be put on emergency basis to evacuate. Evacuees would have to abandon luggage (for security/weight concerns). Seaworthy boats could take evacuees several miles out to sea beyond the continental shelf & ride above the surge of water.

I would be uncertain of how far a tsunami of that size would travel inland. There is is a book 'Lucifer's Hammer' by Larry Niven that describes a fictional event like this caused by a meteor fragment which strikes mostly in the ocean. The scenario speculates on the actions taken by various people under the stress of such a catastrophy. It's an entertaining read at the very least.

Tim

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#104629 - 09/04/07 10:01 PM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: thtimster]
xbanker Offline
Addict

Registered: 04/21/05
Posts: 484
Loc: Anthem, AZ USA
Hi Tim -

If I had the misfortune of finding myself in the middle of a disaster of any scope, I'd be mighty reluctant to participate in — or rely upon — a mass evacuation via boat/ship or commercial aircraft ... OK, I wouldn't do it.

Problematic for several reasons: the number of people involved would be unprecedented. You've seen what happens at an airport around a major holiday? Child's play. The traffic jam alone created by the influx of would-be evacuees guaranteed to be a disaster-within-a-disaster. Airport parking lots? Forget it. They're pretty much full of cars belonging to people already flying the friendly skies. So, cars would be abandoned where they sat as people rushed into the terminals. Any routes of ingress would near-instantly become parking lots.

Temperaments amongst the hordes that do make it inside the terminals? I'd sooner face my wife after breaking an irreplaceable piece from her 50-year-old set of Noritake china. A logistical nightmare for airlines/airports/air traffic control for a relatively small number of people. Anyway, depending on the magnitude of things, I suspect air space would be locked-down in the affected part of the country to all but military and limited other aircraft.

But, IMO none of this would be put to the test anyway, simply because those running (or trying to run) the show would recognize its futility vs. the only slightly better mass evac by automobile.

You're right about Lucifer's Hammer. A classic that many in the forum, like any self-respecting preparedness geek, have read.
_________________________
"Things that have never happened before happen all the time." — Scott Sagan, The Limits of Safety

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#104655 - 09/05/07 12:36 AM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: xbanker]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
My first thought was how long it would take "the authorities" to determine that a problem was coming, then how long it would take them to announce an evacuation. Those two decisions alone would probably cut the notification time between initial event and announcements in half.

My next thought was that there are enough stupid drivers already on the road at any given moment who think they are more important than anyone else, and who are totally prepared to cause a massive traffic accident on the chance of increasing their speed 10 mph.

I would imagine that even if there were no construction bottlenecks in the affected area, the tidal wave of escaping humans would fall all over themselves and create a mass of pileups that would cause the most monumental dam of humanity ever seen.

And for those who think holing up in a hotel on "high ground" (300 ft)... I doubt that you would be the first one to consider it, or one of the first ones who might attempt to check in... if the doors weren't locked and the employees all headed west.

The one main thing that kind of irritates me about this forum is the number of people who plan to bug out somewhere in a major disaster, thinking they will be the only ones there. HA!

The only way to avoid a disaster of a major tsunami like that would be to move to a safer place further west, and try to be at home when it happens.

Cynical Sue (she's back!)

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#104658 - 09/05/07 12:55 AM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: Susan]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Hi Sue,

I've now found a reason to have a 'Little Nelly' parked in the garage. Does anyone one know if anyone still manufactures them or can suggest an equivalent to the Wallis WA-116.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I5OpvXbhbE




Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (09/05/07 01:17 AM)

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#104663 - 09/05/07 01:36 AM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
xbanker Offline
Addict

Registered: 04/21/05
Posts: 484
Loc: Anthem, AZ USA
Originally Posted By: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor
anyone one know if anyone still manufactures them or can suggest an equivalent to the Wallis WA-116.


World's Smallest One-Person Helicopter Unfortunately, only goes 59 mph for 30 minutes, meaning you're only good for a "mini bug out" before refueling. For $5K less you can get the Mosquito ultralight 'copter. Twice the range.
_________________________
"Things that have never happened before happen all the time." — Scott Sagan, The Limits of Safety

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#104664 - 09/05/07 01:46 AM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: xbanker]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
hi xbanker

Thanks for the info, but helicopters are a bit too dangerous for me.
Autogyros are bit safer and have much better performance as a bug out vehicle.

Have found an Italian Company called MagniGyro who produce the 2 seater M22. It has even got a compartment for the BOB.

http://www.magnigyro.com/English/m22.htm



These are pretty cool cool


Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (09/05/07 01:50 AM)

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#104670 - 09/05/07 02:22 AM Re: What would you do with 9 hours advance warning [Re: thtimster]
ironraven Offline
Cranky Geek
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/08/05
Posts: 4642
Loc: Vermont
Point- tsunami are tidal waves. And they are usually "giant", that's how they break things and scare the snot out of us. :P
_________________________
-IronRaven

When a man dare not speak without malice for fear of giving insult, that is when truth starts to die. Truth is the truest freedom.

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