Let’s get the disclaimer out the way: this is strictly a mental exercise — not an “oh my gosh, this is happenin’ tomorrow so let’s get ready” post. These are events that happen every couple of thousand (or million) years. Pretty good odds.

I like the History Channel show "Mega Disasters". Watched the “East Coast Tsunami” episode last night (there’s also a “West Coast” version). In a nutshell: every 10,000 years or so, a large volcanic landslide triggers a mega-tsunami. This episode explored the likely impact on the entire U.S. east coast should a volcanic event occur in the Canary Islands. They hypothesized nine-hours advance warning.

We tend to prepare for emergencies in our immediate physical environment. But what if the eastern seaboard, or the entire west coast, got smacked?

Your favorite bagels are (were) made in Charleston, SC — do you run out and buy up every bagel you can get your hands on? Or, you theorize that banking would be shut down for an extended period (not only ATMs, but any transactions through a branch, POS/credit card/debit card transactions etc.) — do you rush to get your hands on as much cash as possible since the neighborhood grocery store or gas station won’t be able to accept debit or credit cards? The widgets you so love are imported (by ship) from China. No more seaport.

What would you do given a geographically remote "mega disaster" — one that will eventually impact you in some way — and nine hours in which to do it?

i know a mega tsunami is gonna hit the coast in nine hours:

first thing i'd do is empty my checking and savings accounts in case the bank systems were affected. Then i'd buy as much gas as i could store before the PPG goes through the roof, as it usually does whenever it so much as rains hard. A tsunami wiping out even a few major ports is definitely gonna affect the flow of oil into the country. Next i'd stock up on fresh meat and produce, as most of what we eat in this country is imported, and anything that's not homegrown is likely to cost an arm and a leg very soon.

those are the only things that immediately come to mind when i think of the coast getting decimated. fresh foods, gas, and maybe money. I live far enough inland that unless the building of an arc is necessary, my area won't be directly affected.

ETA: forgot about batteries. IDK, but i doubt most of the batteries we use are made here.

I'll add my own personal thoughts and ideas on what I would do when I have time later.

However, I would like to touch on one point you made concerning credit cards. In my day job, we work very closely with all the major credit card processors in the USA and Canada.

Remember when you go to pay your purchases with a credit card, it goes through a credit card processor, they then communicate to the actual credit card company.

The processing companies have invested a lot money and resources in ensuring their networks have multiple redundancy and fault protection. This is especially true since 9/11 as many of the big companies had operations based in New York go down that effected their entire system coast to coast.

That being said, nowadays it would take almost catastrophic and far reaching event on one coast or region to effect credit card operations on the other side of the country....I could write a 25 page essay on all this, however I am sure most get the idea.


Do I trust it fully....no but I do have some faith that a hurricane, volcanic erruption, earthquake on the west coast would not stop me from my day to day credit card purchases in the midwest, on the east coast or Canada.

East or West-Coast Tsunami or the New Madrid Seismic Zone rips off a level 12 quake. It's all pretty much the same, I'm not in the zone of direct damage/effect.

I'd assess my current supplies, the season and what items are likely to become unavailable for a while. Then I'd try to add what I could in available perishables (Imported spices, fruits, nuts and vegetables.)

Food for thought; What products (not produced in the USA) come in through ports on each coast and which can/should be stored/stockpiled against possible shortages due to disrupted shipping?

Grab BOB and beat the traffic out of town (aka GTHOOD).

Head to the grocery store and pick up a couple more weeks' supply of food and water. Fill up the gas tank in the Commander and another 20 gallons in gerry cans. That's probably all the more I need for now.

The credit card processing companies may have added much needed fault-tolerance and redundancy to their systems, but from a consumer’s perspective, there are many more factors that need to be functioning in order to keep a credit card useful.

First of all, the point of sale (POS) equipment, i.e. registers, need to be functional for credit card purchases to be successful. This may sound obvious, but large emergencies are notorious for stores losing power, getting water in the registers, causing looters to break the equipment, cables or equipment being torn or damaged from falling objects, etc. Frequently, the registers don’t survive long in an emergency.

Also, POS equipment uses one form or another of electronic communications to relay your purchase to and obtain approval from the credit card processor network. Larger retailers may use the internet or communicate directly to a central office via ISDN, cable, DSL, fiber optic, or even satellite, while smaller retailers will use the good ol’ dial-up modem for this purpose. (You can even hear the AOL-era squealing coming from the registers at some places.) The phone lines could be jammed, the cable company could lose power, a utility pole could fall, a central office or remote terminal could flood or fry, etc. A localized emergency could very easily take out the communications network in an area far greater than the actual emergency area. You may get lucky and be in a store that still uses those press rollers to get an imprint of your card, but you’d still have to be lucky enough for their paper to be dry.

There are just too many points where a credit card purchase can fail. All the fault-tolerance in the world only ensures that the credit card processing companies still exist after the emergency, not that they can help those being affected by it.

Another advantage to living in a motorhome (or fifthwheel/tougue dragger). We always keep the onboard propane tank full (run off of a five gallon tank when we are parked), the fresh water tank full, the gas (or diesel in the near future) tank at least half full, the two slide-out pantries are always stocked with enough food for the two of us for a week or more. So all we have to do is run the slides in, jacks up, hitch the toad to the rear end, and we are off. But, if we are in L.A., S.F., or any other large city, unless we are really fast hitting the road, we are going to run into the worlds larges traffic jam, and no one will be going anywhere real soon. Another reason to avoid those places...

hi xbanker,

This scenario has been modelled.

www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf

9 hours advance warning is just the time the wave makes across the Atlantic, with the wave travelling at the speed of a jet liner. I doubt that the warning would be 9 hours, most folks would be lucky if they got 3-4 hours warning if at all as I doubt there would probably be an organised evacuation. Just look at the chaos of the Houston evacuation in 2005 with 72hrs warning and this was just 1 metropolitan centre not dozens along the whole eastern sea board on the CONUS. Casualties figures would literally be in the millions as the 10-25 metre high wave wiped out everything for dozens of miles inland.

As for the probability being low i.e every 10,000 years ago or so, we must remember that volcanic activity on the island of La Palma re-occurs in periods much shorter in time i.e every 200 years or so, with the last volcanic eruption occurring in 1949. In 1949, the side of the volcano (island), the Cubre Vieja, slipped 2-3 metres then stopped.

My original post was regarding the scenario where a separate region of the country was effected, not where we currently live right now. Without going into a lot of detail, I am more then familiar on how pos, credit card, network and internet systems work, it has been my career for more years then I care to think about sometimes...

In another scenario, if I am on the west coast, a major power blackout hits the eastern starboard (such as 2003). This did not effect pos equipment, operations etc, on the west coast. I distinctly recall using my credit and debit card a few times that same day and the next couple of days with no issues.

In a local and or regional emergency, yes there will be all issues you suggested and probably more...and I would be the first in line at the bank withdrawing cash if there was still a chance.