Ah, thank you pointing that out. I had missed that this original post was about what you’d do with the 9 hours preparation for an emergency that’s going to strike somewhere else.

Kind of makes bugging out pointless, doesn’t it?

I think in that perticulare scenerio, I would probably get my bob, wife and hook up the jetski. After all it is a water type emergency. I would gather up what I could and get out of dodge. I know that is simplistic, but I think the KISS method is pretty much what being somewhat prepared is all about. I have a stash of cash stashed in an established meeting place, so that isnt a concern. What does concern me is the fact that there would be untold number of displaced people. That causes concern in and of itself. I think I would head to safer areas, but then try to figure out some way of sustaining my family. I am in the medical profession and that is always going to be a need, but unless things (at first anyway) are on the barter system, after getting out, that is probably going to be my next thought.

You're making a few assumptions.

The largest is that there won't be massive ripples. There will be plenty of systems intact between the Rockies and the Appalachians, and the satellites will still be up, but that's the only thing I'd promise. The scenario in question involves a wall of water about 15 stories high and pretty much continent wide hitting either coast. If you just deleted pretty much everything from Boston to Brownsville and all of Florida, or from LA to Vancouver, I won't try to predict what will still works.

I would predict that that the near simultaneous destruction of that many major cities qualifies as an "almost catastrophic and far reaching event". :P I'd also hazard a guess that even though they system might work, a lot of merchants aren't going to take plastic or non-local checks about the time the news breaks.

My shopping list is easy- gas, a propane tank or two, batteries, get back to my apartment and pack up critical items. Then get my butt home before martial law is declared, which I would expect on a nationwide basis if something this large happened, and even the back roads fill with people from Mass.

There would be ripples of course, and it's not to say there won't be significant impact, but I doubt we would "go black" even if we lost the whole east or west coast. The systems simply aren't constructed that way. Having worked within a utiltiy kernel, I know that systems can switch out to redundant and independent backup, depending on how well the utility services have invested in the back up plans. In some cases, you could lose all outside support and they would still be indefinitely operational on their own. There are enough of these set-ups that it would take something much worse than a 15 story wall of water washing out the coast to overwhelm our infrastructure.

This is not to say that such an event is insignificant or that it won't cause widespread problems, but I would really only be concerned if I were in the immediate area of effect. Otherwise it will really only be an inconvenience for most of us. If I am in the flood zone, then the obvious response is to leave before it floods.

In the scenario you describe? Basically, say goodbye.

Look, in any major east coast city, under NORMAL conditions, you can't get from A to B in a reasonable amount of time.

Here's an example.
On this map
the BLUE line represents the distance covered in the first hour of my drive IN to NY.
The RED line represents the distance covered in the SECOND hour.



It's actually worse coming home, as there's a huge slowdown due to construction westbound on Rt. 78.

My chances are better in NYC trying to go UP and hoping for the best, rather than going to lower ground to the west and hoping to make it to higher ground somewhere around Rt. 287.

My plan? Get as much food and water as possible UP as high as I can find a place to be, and improvise. Ham radio might be handy here too, time to get my 6 meter stuff in order, I suspect.

You're talking about a situation with 20 to 30 million dead - at least. I mean, if a 25 meter water wall overtopped all of Florida, and, let's say. 50% of the population survived that, that's 9 million dead in FLORIDA alone. Something like 60% of the population of the US lives along the coasts, you're not even able to make a rational guess (despite my previous guess) as to what happens when a wave 82 feet high hits the shore. 82 FEET! Just to give some perspective, the tsunami that hit Indonesia was about 30 feet tall in Sumatra. 200,000 people died in the 2004 Tsunami.

Oh, I'm not saying we will go black, at least not as a direct result. Nor am I saying that anything not on the impacted coast would disappear- the powerplants and stuff would be there and they would continue to work as long as they were able. What I am saying is that I don't think we could absorb that much damage over that little amount of time and not lose critical mass.

As Martin pointed out, 20-30 million dead is a reasonable estimate in this scenario, and figure half that many dislocated, optimistically. Never mind the issues with relocation, that many dead would pose a health crisis the likes of which we haven't seen in this country in living memory. You'd be looking at the loss of major ports (sea and air), stored goods, and economic and communications centers. Add in the loss of records and faith in the US dollar, and you won't see much coming in in the way of imports (ie, oil) even through the intact ports. Even the domestic economy would be hurt in a manner that we haven't seen in 70 years.

It might not be a country breaker, but it would cripple us. It honestly wouldn't be as bad if it hit the West coast, but the loss of everything along I-95 plus the Gulf Coast would put us on the brink. Either way, it would qualify as a TEOTWAWKI scenario, on par with the first sack of Rome- the Empire survived that. For a little while.

Martin,

If you can get to the Short Hills Mall on 24, where it splits off Rt 78 westbound, you can hang at the Short Hills Hilton. The elevation there is sufficient to protect against a tsunami incident, and I think you will like the digs. From Holland Tunnel, it takes me about 1 1/2 hours in heavy traffic to get there. If you take the NJT Morristown train you can stop at Summit and you're within 5 miles of the hotel, or you could hang out in beautiful downtown Summit for a while. In fact, anything west of Summit on 24 would be up high enough. The really high point is south of Summit across 78 heading for 22. If you manage to get to the top of that hill, there are clear views all the way back to Manhattan, and there's a big park right there to hang out in as well.

If I had my druthers, I guess I would hang out at the Westin in Times Square. You're on the west side of the island, but not too close to the Hudson, and far enough north that most of the power of the wave should be spent by then, so it is just flooding that you have to contend with. That place is recent construction and built to withstand some serious stress, so it should weather well. Once the show's over, you have access to their rooftop, which I know is capable of helo landing (one of the few in the area), and evac would be like that at the end of the movie "The Day After Tomorrow".

We live in Florida.....Soutwest Florida.....It takes 5 plus hours ON A GOOD DAY to drive from where we are to the next state....as for elevation......well I heard one person say that you could tell if you needed flood insurance by looking at your driver's license....if it says Florida....you need it!!!

I really do not know what we'd do.....we have family on the East coast.....despite my job....emergency response....my family comes first....we'd head North and pray that we had the resources and time to get out....it we did only get the 3-4 hours notice.....then the air would be the only way....any there is absolutely NO WAY that they could get that many aircraft in to get people out......

I still need to think about it......and so far I don't like our choices.

Where I'm at there's not much to do except get some cash out of the bank if at all possible. Otherwise, I'd sit home and listen to the radio (I don't have a TV). Those nine hours are going to be the worst crush of freaked out people ever seen, even in areas distant from the actual disaster. Banks, stores, roads and lines of communications will be swamped. Getting anything done will be nearly impossible unless you catch the first squeal and beat everyone out the door.

There are a few things I could do around my apartment to prepare, but I'd wait until after the initial shock and insanity had worn off to try and get anything done around town.

Just a thought....get some 5's and 10's.

Anything larger is worthless, nobody will have change.