hi xbanker,

This scenario has been modelled.

www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf

9 hours advance warning is just the time the wave makes across the Atlantic, with the wave travelling at the speed of a jet liner. I doubt that the warning would be 9 hours, most folks would be lucky if they got 3-4 hours warning if at all as I doubt there would probably be an organised evacuation. Just look at the chaos of the Houston evacuation in 2005 with 72hrs warning and this was just 1 metropolitan centre not dozens along the whole eastern sea board on the CONUS. Casualties figures would literally be in the millions as the 10-25 metre high wave wiped out everything for dozens of miles inland.

As for the probability being low i.e every 10,000 years ago or so, we must remember that volcanic activity on the island of La Palma re-occurs in periods much shorter in time i.e every 200 years or so, with the last volcanic eruption occurring in 1949. In 1949, the side of the volcano (island), the Cubre Vieja, slipped 2-3 metres then stopped.