Let’s get the disclaimer out the way: this is strictly a mental exercise — not an “oh my gosh, this is happenin’ tomorrow so let’s get ready” post. These are events that happen every couple of thousand (or million) years. Pretty good odds.

I like the History Channel show "Mega Disasters". Watched the “East Coast Tsunami” episode last night (there’s also a “West Coast” version). In a nutshell: every 10,000 years or so, a large volcanic landslide triggers a mega-tsunami. This episode explored the likely impact on the entire U.S. east coast should a volcanic event occur in the Canary Islands. They hypothesized nine-hours advance warning.

We tend to prepare for emergencies in our immediate physical environment. But what if the eastern seaboard, or the entire west coast, got smacked?

Your favorite bagels are (were) made in Charleston, SC — do you run out and buy up every bagel you can get your hands on? Or, you theorize that banking would be shut down for an extended period (not only ATMs, but any transactions through a branch, POS/credit card/debit card transactions etc.) — do you rush to get your hands on as much cash as possible since the neighborhood grocery store or gas station won’t be able to accept debit or credit cards? The widgets you so love are imported (by ship) from China. No more seaport.

What would you do given a geographically remote "mega disaster" — one that will eventually impact you in some way — and nine hours in which to do it?

i know a mega tsunami is gonna hit the coast in nine hours:

first thing i'd do is empty my checking and savings accounts in case the bank systems were affected. Then i'd buy as much gas as i could store before the PPG goes through the roof, as it usually does whenever it so much as rains hard. A tsunami wiping out even a few major ports is definitely gonna affect the flow of oil into the country. Next i'd stock up on fresh meat and produce, as most of what we eat in this country is imported, and anything that's not homegrown is likely to cost an arm and a leg very soon.

those are the only things that immediately come to mind when i think of the coast getting decimated. fresh foods, gas, and maybe money. I live far enough inland that unless the building of an arc is necessary, my area won't be directly affected.

ETA: forgot about batteries. IDK, but i doubt most of the batteries we use are made here.

I'll add my own personal thoughts and ideas on what I would do when I have time later.

However, I would like to touch on one point you made concerning credit cards. In my day job, we work very closely with all the major credit card processors in the USA and Canada.

Remember when you go to pay your purchases with a credit card, it goes through a credit card processor, they then communicate to the actual credit card company.

The processing companies have invested a lot money and resources in ensuring their networks have multiple redundancy and fault protection. This is especially true since 9/11 as many of the big companies had operations based in New York go down that effected their entire system coast to coast.

That being said, nowadays it would take almost catastrophic and far reaching event on one coast or region to effect credit card operations on the other side of the country....I could write a 25 page essay on all this, however I am sure most get the idea.


Do I trust it fully....no but I do have some faith that a hurricane, volcanic erruption, earthquake on the west coast would not stop me from my day to day credit card purchases in the midwest, on the east coast or Canada.

East or West-Coast Tsunami or the New Madrid Seismic Zone rips off a level 12 quake. It's all pretty much the same, I'm not in the zone of direct damage/effect.

I'd assess my current supplies, the season and what items are likely to become unavailable for a while. Then I'd try to add what I could in available perishables (Imported spices, fruits, nuts and vegetables.)

Food for thought; What products (not produced in the USA) come in through ports on each coast and which can/should be stored/stockpiled against possible shortages due to disrupted shipping?

Grab BOB and beat the traffic out of town (aka GTHOOD).

Head to the grocery store and pick up a couple more weeks' supply of food and water. Fill up the gas tank in the Commander and another 20 gallons in gerry cans. That's probably all the more I need for now.

The credit card processing companies may have added much needed fault-tolerance and redundancy to their systems, but from a consumer’s perspective, there are many more factors that need to be functioning in order to keep a credit card useful.

First of all, the point of sale (POS) equipment, i.e. registers, need to be functional for credit card purchases to be successful. This may sound obvious, but large emergencies are notorious for stores losing power, getting water in the registers, causing looters to break the equipment, cables or equipment being torn or damaged from falling objects, etc. Frequently, the registers don’t survive long in an emergency.

Also, POS equipment uses one form or another of electronic communications to relay your purchase to and obtain approval from the credit card processor network. Larger retailers may use the internet or communicate directly to a central office via ISDN, cable, DSL, fiber optic, or even satellite, while smaller retailers will use the good ol’ dial-up modem for this purpose. (You can even hear the AOL-era squealing coming from the registers at some places.) The phone lines could be jammed, the cable company could lose power, a utility pole could fall, a central office or remote terminal could flood or fry, etc. A localized emergency could very easily take out the communications network in an area far greater than the actual emergency area. You may get lucky and be in a store that still uses those press rollers to get an imprint of your card, but you’d still have to be lucky enough for their paper to be dry.

There are just too many points where a credit card purchase can fail. All the fault-tolerance in the world only ensures that the credit card processing companies still exist after the emergency, not that they can help those being affected by it.

Another advantage to living in a motorhome (or fifthwheel/tougue dragger). We always keep the onboard propane tank full (run off of a five gallon tank when we are parked), the fresh water tank full, the gas (or diesel in the near future) tank at least half full, the two slide-out pantries are always stocked with enough food for the two of us for a week or more. So all we have to do is run the slides in, jacks up, hitch the toad to the rear end, and we are off. But, if we are in L.A., S.F., or any other large city, unless we are really fast hitting the road, we are going to run into the worlds larges traffic jam, and no one will be going anywhere real soon. Another reason to avoid those places...

hi xbanker,

This scenario has been modelled.

www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf

9 hours advance warning is just the time the wave makes across the Atlantic, with the wave travelling at the speed of a jet liner. I doubt that the warning would be 9 hours, most folks would be lucky if they got 3-4 hours warning if at all as I doubt there would probably be an organised evacuation. Just look at the chaos of the Houston evacuation in 2005 with 72hrs warning and this was just 1 metropolitan centre not dozens along the whole eastern sea board on the CONUS. Casualties figures would literally be in the millions as the 10-25 metre high wave wiped out everything for dozens of miles inland.

As for the probability being low i.e every 10,000 years ago or so, we must remember that volcanic activity on the island of La Palma re-occurs in periods much shorter in time i.e every 200 years or so, with the last volcanic eruption occurring in 1949. In 1949, the side of the volcano (island), the Cubre Vieja, slipped 2-3 metres then stopped.

My original post was regarding the scenario where a separate region of the country was effected, not where we currently live right now. Without going into a lot of detail, I am more then familiar on how pos, credit card, network and internet systems work, it has been my career for more years then I care to think about sometimes...

In another scenario, if I am on the west coast, a major power blackout hits the eastern starboard (such as 2003). This did not effect pos equipment, operations etc, on the west coast. I distinctly recall using my credit and debit card a few times that same day and the next couple of days with no issues.

In a local and or regional emergency, yes there will be all issues you suggested and probably more...and I would be the first in line at the bank withdrawing cash if there was still a chance.

Ah, thank you pointing that out. I had missed that this original post was about what you’d do with the 9 hours preparation for an emergency that’s going to strike somewhere else.

Kind of makes bugging out pointless, doesn’t it?

I think in that perticulare scenerio, I would probably get my bob, wife and hook up the jetski. After all it is a water type emergency. I would gather up what I could and get out of dodge. I know that is simplistic, but I think the KISS method is pretty much what being somewhat prepared is all about. I have a stash of cash stashed in an established meeting place, so that isnt a concern. What does concern me is the fact that there would be untold number of displaced people. That causes concern in and of itself. I think I would head to safer areas, but then try to figure out some way of sustaining my family. I am in the medical profession and that is always going to be a need, but unless things (at first anyway) are on the barter system, after getting out, that is probably going to be my next thought.

You're making a few assumptions.

The largest is that there won't be massive ripples. There will be plenty of systems intact between the Rockies and the Appalachians, and the satellites will still be up, but that's the only thing I'd promise. The scenario in question involves a wall of water about 15 stories high and pretty much continent wide hitting either coast. If you just deleted pretty much everything from Boston to Brownsville and all of Florida, or from LA to Vancouver, I won't try to predict what will still works.

I would predict that that the near simultaneous destruction of that many major cities qualifies as an "almost catastrophic and far reaching event". :P I'd also hazard a guess that even though they system might work, a lot of merchants aren't going to take plastic or non-local checks about the time the news breaks.

My shopping list is easy- gas, a propane tank or two, batteries, get back to my apartment and pack up critical items. Then get my butt home before martial law is declared, which I would expect on a nationwide basis if something this large happened, and even the back roads fill with people from Mass.

There would be ripples of course, and it's not to say there won't be significant impact, but I doubt we would "go black" even if we lost the whole east or west coast. The systems simply aren't constructed that way. Having worked within a utiltiy kernel, I know that systems can switch out to redundant and independent backup, depending on how well the utility services have invested in the back up plans. In some cases, you could lose all outside support and they would still be indefinitely operational on their own. There are enough of these set-ups that it would take something much worse than a 15 story wall of water washing out the coast to overwhelm our infrastructure.

This is not to say that such an event is insignificant or that it won't cause widespread problems, but I would really only be concerned if I were in the immediate area of effect. Otherwise it will really only be an inconvenience for most of us. If I am in the flood zone, then the obvious response is to leave before it floods.

In the scenario you describe? Basically, say goodbye.

Look, in any major east coast city, under NORMAL conditions, you can't get from A to B in a reasonable amount of time.

Here's an example.
On this map
the BLUE line represents the distance covered in the first hour of my drive IN to NY.
The RED line represents the distance covered in the SECOND hour.



It's actually worse coming home, as there's a huge slowdown due to construction westbound on Rt. 78.

My chances are better in NYC trying to go UP and hoping for the best, rather than going to lower ground to the west and hoping to make it to higher ground somewhere around Rt. 287.

My plan? Get as much food and water as possible UP as high as I can find a place to be, and improvise. Ham radio might be handy here too, time to get my 6 meter stuff in order, I suspect.

You're talking about a situation with 20 to 30 million dead - at least. I mean, if a 25 meter water wall overtopped all of Florida, and, let's say. 50% of the population survived that, that's 9 million dead in FLORIDA alone. Something like 60% of the population of the US lives along the coasts, you're not even able to make a rational guess (despite my previous guess) as to what happens when a wave 82 feet high hits the shore. 82 FEET! Just to give some perspective, the tsunami that hit Indonesia was about 30 feet tall in Sumatra. 200,000 people died in the 2004 Tsunami.

Oh, I'm not saying we will go black, at least not as a direct result. Nor am I saying that anything not on the impacted coast would disappear- the powerplants and stuff would be there and they would continue to work as long as they were able. What I am saying is that I don't think we could absorb that much damage over that little amount of time and not lose critical mass.

As Martin pointed out, 20-30 million dead is a reasonable estimate in this scenario, and figure half that many dislocated, optimistically. Never mind the issues with relocation, that many dead would pose a health crisis the likes of which we haven't seen in this country in living memory. You'd be looking at the loss of major ports (sea and air), stored goods, and economic and communications centers. Add in the loss of records and faith in the US dollar, and you won't see much coming in in the way of imports (ie, oil) even through the intact ports. Even the domestic economy would be hurt in a manner that we haven't seen in 70 years.

It might not be a country breaker, but it would cripple us. It honestly wouldn't be as bad if it hit the West coast, but the loss of everything along I-95 plus the Gulf Coast would put us on the brink. Either way, it would qualify as a TEOTWAWKI scenario, on par with the first sack of Rome- the Empire survived that. For a little while.

Martin,

If you can get to the Short Hills Mall on 24, where it splits off Rt 78 westbound, you can hang at the Short Hills Hilton. The elevation there is sufficient to protect against a tsunami incident, and I think you will like the digs. From Holland Tunnel, it takes me about 1 1/2 hours in heavy traffic to get there. If you take the NJT Morristown train you can stop at Summit and you're within 5 miles of the hotel, or you could hang out in beautiful downtown Summit for a while. In fact, anything west of Summit on 24 would be up high enough. The really high point is south of Summit across 78 heading for 22. If you manage to get to the top of that hill, there are clear views all the way back to Manhattan, and there's a big park right there to hang out in as well.

If I had my druthers, I guess I would hang out at the Westin in Times Square. You're on the west side of the island, but not too close to the Hudson, and far enough north that most of the power of the wave should be spent by then, so it is just flooding that you have to contend with. That place is recent construction and built to withstand some serious stress, so it should weather well. Once the show's over, you have access to their rooftop, which I know is capable of helo landing (one of the few in the area), and evac would be like that at the end of the movie "The Day After Tomorrow".

We live in Florida.....Soutwest Florida.....It takes 5 plus hours ON A GOOD DAY to drive from where we are to the next state....as for elevation......well I heard one person say that you could tell if you needed flood insurance by looking at your driver's license....if it says Florida....you need it!!!

I really do not know what we'd do.....we have family on the East coast.....despite my job....emergency response....my family comes first....we'd head North and pray that we had the resources and time to get out....it we did only get the 3-4 hours notice.....then the air would be the only way....any there is absolutely NO WAY that they could get that many aircraft in to get people out......

I still need to think about it......and so far I don't like our choices.

Where I'm at there's not much to do except get some cash out of the bank if at all possible. Otherwise, I'd sit home and listen to the radio (I don't have a TV). Those nine hours are going to be the worst crush of freaked out people ever seen, even in areas distant from the actual disaster. Banks, stores, roads and lines of communications will be swamped. Getting anything done will be nearly impossible unless you catch the first squeal and beat everyone out the door.

There are a few things I could do around my apartment to prepare, but I'd wait until after the initial shock and insanity had worn off to try and get anything done around town.

Just a thought....get some 5's and 10's.

Anything larger is worthless, nobody will have change.

A very good exercise!

If I am at home when they warning is received, I make calls to get people coming home immediately or headed to a certain small town in the state of Arkansas. Then I open the Nuclear War Survival Skills manual to Chapter 4: Evacuation. Each person at home gets a category of things to round up (the DW would do the packing for herself & the kids). Load up the vehicle and be headed to Arkansas within 2 hours of notification.

If I am not at home, I call the DW & direct her to follow Chapter 4 & be on the road in 2 hours, per contingency plan ****.

I have several contingency plans that cover short & long range bug outs, as well as "Shelter-in-place" plans.

All emergency supplies are packaged to be moved quickly from storage into the shelter or into the vehicles.

1. Verify safety of family and friends.
2. Assess food, water, energy and medical supplies and supplement where needed.
3. Contact FEMA to find out how I can help after the event. Because there, but for the grace of God, go I.

Frank2135

I’m not a TEOTWAWKI kind of guy by any stretch. Like most here, believe in a match-up between likely risks in my little corner of the world and reasonable preparations for those risks. It’s prudent, it’s fun – and it allows me to rationalize the occasional purchase (for my wife’s benefit).

But, the program reminded me that my planning mostly ignored those couple of events that, though far removed from my home, could somehow impact me in ways I hadn’t much considered. Whether or not you believe the Cumbre Vieja volcano will someday cause a giant dirt clod to slide into the ocean, causing a mega-tsunami, maybe isn’t the point.

Again, the OP was just an exercise to stimulate some thought about events outside our immediate environments, and whether they merit inclusion in our personal preparedness plans.

An aside: the disparity in impact-assessment among those posting is interesting. Ranging from "...it will really only be an inconvenience for most of us" to "...it would cripple us." All from people whose opinion I respect. Small wonder FEMA has a tough time.

For my own part, I think the after-effects would be far-reaching...impact on the economy, financial markets, supply chain etc.

One thing I think we can agree on — every time Mother Nature raises the bar, we're forced to re-examine our thinking and the sufficiency of our collective preparedness.

If it is a tsunami & not a giant tidal wave wouldn't the worst occur at the shore & then depending on how much water is displaced, the land inward? If this were the case airports could be put on emergency basis to evacuate. Evacuees would have to abandon luggage (for security/weight concerns). Seaworthy boats could take evacuees several miles out to sea beyond the continental shelf & ride above the surge of water.

I would be uncertain of how far a tsunami of that size would travel inland. There is is a book 'Lucifer's Hammer' by Larry Niven that describes a fictional event like this caused by a meteor fragment which strikes mostly in the ocean. The scenario speculates on the actions taken by various people under the stress of such a catastrophy. It's an entertaining read at the very least.

Tim

Hi Tim -

If I had the misfortune of finding myself in the middle of a disaster of any scope, I'd be mighty reluctant to participate in — or rely upon — a mass evacuation via boat/ship or commercial aircraft ... OK, I wouldn't do it.

Problematic for several reasons: the number of people involved would be unprecedented. You've seen what happens at an airport around a major holiday? Child's play. The traffic jam alone created by the influx of would-be evacuees guaranteed to be a disaster-within-a-disaster. Airport parking lots? Forget it. They're pretty much full of cars belonging to people already flying the friendly skies. So, cars would be abandoned where they sat as people rushed into the terminals. Any routes of ingress would near-instantly become parking lots.

Temperaments amongst the hordes that do make it inside the terminals? I'd sooner face my wife after breaking an irreplaceable piece from her 50-year-old set of Noritake china. A logistical nightmare for airlines/airports/air traffic control for a relatively small number of people. Anyway, depending on the magnitude of things, I suspect air space would be locked-down in the affected part of the country to all but military and limited other aircraft.

But, IMO none of this would be put to the test anyway, simply because those running (or trying to run) the show would recognize its futility vs. the only slightly better mass evac by automobile.

You're right about Lucifer's Hammer. A classic that many in the forum, like any self-respecting preparedness geek, have read.

My first thought was how long it would take "the authorities" to determine that a problem was coming, then how long it would take them to announce an evacuation. Those two decisions alone would probably cut the notification time between initial event and announcements in half.

My next thought was that there are enough stupid drivers already on the road at any given moment who think they are more important than anyone else, and who are totally prepared to cause a massive traffic accident on the chance of increasing their speed 10 mph.

I would imagine that even if there were no construction bottlenecks in the affected area, the tidal wave of escaping humans would fall all over themselves and create a mass of pileups that would cause the most monumental dam of humanity ever seen.

And for those who think holing up in a hotel on "high ground" (300 ft)... I doubt that you would be the first one to consider it, or one of the first ones who might attempt to check in... if the doors weren't locked and the employees all headed west.

The one main thing that kind of irritates me about this forum is the number of people who plan to bug out somewhere in a major disaster, thinking they will be the only ones there. HA!

The only way to avoid a disaster of a major tsunami like that would be to move to a safer place further west, and try to be at home when it happens.

Cynical Sue (she's back!)

Hi Sue,

I've now found a reason to have a 'Little Nelly' parked in the garage. Does anyone one know if anyone still manufactures them or can suggest an equivalent to the Wallis WA-116.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I5OpvXbhbE

World's Smallest One-Person Helicopter Unfortunately, only goes 59 mph for 30 minutes, meaning you're only good for a "mini bug out" before refueling. For $5K less you can get the Mosquito ultralight 'copter. Twice the range.

hi xbanker

Thanks for the info, but helicopters are a bit too dangerous for me.
Autogyros are bit safer and have much better performance as a bug out vehicle.

Have found an Italian Company called MagniGyro who produce the 2 seater M22. It has even got a compartment for the BOB.

http://www.magnigyro.com/English/m22.htm



These are pretty cool

Point- tsunami are tidal waves. And they are usually "giant", that's how they break things and scare the snot out of us. :P

Reminded me of a link someone sent me: co-axial counter rotating They expect to begin production next year.

IIRC The waves from this will make a normal tidal wave look small.

Yes, this would top out the mythical Scottish size scale- "freaking huge!".

FYI, tidal waves and tsunami are the same things, whatever their initial cause. But the term "tidal wave" is now generally discouraged because some people see it and think tides are involved, which they aren't.

Not to spoil any of the fun, but... the mega-tsunami from the Canary Islands that was the beginning post of this thread may not really be much of a possibility. Many scientists believe that tsunami are quite localized, and aren't likely to be capable of sustaining that much power across a large ocean.

But it is an interesting theory. If it happened, the sharks would certainly have a field day, wouldn't they?

Sue