as part of being prepared i watch the national weather service, and in particular their "discussion" of what the weather really is and will be for the next week or so. and they are good at hedging their bets.
at first i didn't understand some of their terminology, but after a while i began to get it.
today's "discussion" for my area:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&sid=lox&pil=afdfor your area, fill in the box in the upper left-hand side of the link's page, and at that page look at the bottom right side for "forecast discussion".
when i travel i've seen this for other areas as well.
i too watch the doppler as an integral part of being prepared - it shows what's over the horizon that could impact you and your adventure - and make it a real adventure!
fwiw, the farmer's almanac, in my area, has been especially poor this year.