I have relatives in Hawaii, so I watched with interest as Hurricane Flossie was upgraded to a Category 4 a couple days ago. But at the time, all the reports were saying that: a) Flossie would likely weaken to just a tropical storm as it hit colder water soon, and b) It's storm track would be well away from the Hawiian Islands. That was two days ago. Then yesterday, gee, the tune changed to: a) It's not weakening so much (still a Cat 2), and b) It's headed for the Hawaiian Islands!

Anyway, although Flossie is not going to be a tremendous blow for the Big Island, this incident just reminded me that with hurricanes and other serious weather, forecasting is definitely still an evolving science. That said, being already prepared before anything becomes imminent is obviously the best strategy because if you wait for the weather folks to warn you of "definite" danger, you can really find yourself caught flat footed.

Actually, this also reminded me of the tough job that emergency managers have, particularly regarding things that take a lot of time, like ordering an evacuation. If it's going to take 48 hours to evacuate a metropolitan region but a hurricane forecast can flip-flop in less than 24 hours, that's a really tough position to be in.