Due to recent events the subject of earthquakes has been on my mind, and Lono's post here set me to thinking if there would be any way to know that the expected "big one" might be around the corner, and so to set yourself in a good place for it beforehand.

Now I know there's no sure way of predicting earthquakes (yet!), and I have read this ETS thread that includes the subject. What I'm wondering is, if foreshocks are common before most major earthquakes, then would it make sense for people living in the area of an anticipated big one to do a mini bug out to, say, a wide open field or something whenever there's a minor quake felt? It wouldn't work in California, of course, and most or all would end up just being surprise drills, and I know that foreshocks can come months beforehand. So maybe not. But then again if we know the big one is coming, and if there was some sort of statistical time window within which most foreshocks operated before a major quake.....hmm, dunno. Just wondering.

The second thought I had was to have a plan to do the same when a pet is exhibiting a significant unexplained change in behavior over the course of several days. Again, "false alarms" would probably happen, but if there's a chance, and a person doesn't mind unplanned drills, then would anyone consider it?

Part of where this is coming from for me is that I have an anecdotal story on the matter. As a teenager I had a pet rat that I was quite close to (I'm sure you can see where this is going). I think I had had it for over a year when one day I noticed it was not interested in playing, in fact, I couldn't coax it to poke its head out from under its "nest" at all. It wasn't even tempted by its favorite foods. When I brought it out, instead of exploring and being affectionate it would immediately try to hide. I could not interest it in anything; it seemed very scared.

The next day things were the same, and the next and the next. Like any responsible person with a pet I was becoming worried and observed it carefully. As far as I could tell it was not eating at all, and would only come out of hiding for a very brief time to drink some water before burrowing into hiding again. Presently I decided something must be very wrong and asked my dad if we could take it to the vet. My dad stalled a bit, and as the days went on I became more persistent until he finally agreed that I could call in.

The next day the Nisqually earthquake hit my area.

To the best of my memory the rat had been exhibiting this behavior on a constant basis for around 2 weeks leading up to the quake. The change in behavior is not the kind of thing that could have been missed, and gave plenty of advance warning. Once the aftershocks and everything had passed my rat returned to normal behavior.

But that's not all. Some time later, I seems like it must have been about a year or less, my rat began exhibiting the exact same change in behavior. I went and told my family, "there's going to be another earthquake." They believed me enough to take a few precautions with some heirloom items, and I made my own preparations. I actually have a dated journal entry saying that there would be another earthquake in my area soon. And about a week later it happened, I think it was a 4 or something like that, maybe a 5, I wish I could find the info on it again to say for sure. In any case it was just barely big enough to make the news and for most people to feel it.

After that I decided the next time it happens I'd be calling news stations and such to inform them of the prediction, but rats don't live very long and that obviously never happened. Still, it makes me wonder if that might actually be a viable way to get advanced warning of larger earthquakes and leave the area before it happens, take an impromptu vacation or something.

This is all just some thinking aloud. I'm not currently in a position to do any of these things, but I was wondering what you all thought of these ideas.