I would say that HAM is not going to be as common as GMRS, or even FRS.

Your assumption on eliminating repeaters is unrealistic. Yes, some will go down, but more and more are running with photovoltaic backup. I've put up half a dozen commercial repeaters alone that use this configuration. In fact, some don't have any utility connection at all.

GMRS radios encompass the popular FRS band, which includes all those Costco $50 specials. Part of the GMRS band includes repeater operations. Unlike HAM, GMRS licensing does not require any technical/operating proficiency testing.

FRS/GMRS is in the UHF part of the spectrum.

The vast majority of Ham ops above HF is in the two meter range.

7 Mhz seems to be the most crowded area in the HF region.

VHF Marine portable radios are rated similar to two meter portables for output.

For the money, if you want a decent back up comms system, get GMRS.