Thanks for posting. Yes all the studies seem to indicate moderate risks. When I say moderate, I mean the chance of an earthquake above mag 7 is quite small.

I dont know what to make of it, really. It all depends on data sets. The scientists are using a limited data set where thry have good data. That makes sense, but it does not tell the whole story.

I went back and looked at all the LA quakes from the time they were first recorded by people. I came to the conclusion that we should see 2 quakes every 25 years, more or less. A smaller quake (mag 4-5) and a larger quake (mag 5-7). Of course, the pattern changes constantly. But the stats that I am quoting seem more frequent than what the recent published studies say. It is possible that the last century was a relatively quiet time of the Earth in the LA Basin. It has not always been that way. The last 20-25 years in LA have marked an unusual lull in activity. It wont last much longer.

I wish that we had the oral records of the California Indians, because they knew a greater history. Sadly, that knowledge was lost when their culture was destroyed. It is possible that the Indians knew something from their oral history that could really help us today.