Originally Posted By: AKSAR
Originally Posted By: clearwater
Five Alligator fatalities in the US in the last year.

17 bear fatalities since 2007 in north american.

The fatalities in the article I linked were from US National Parks, and the odds of death were calculated using those National Park fatality numbers against National Park visitor numbers.

To calculate odds of death using your 5 alligator fatalities in the US you would need to calculate those 5 deaths against the entire population of the US, which is a great deal larger than the number of National Park visitors.

Likewise for the 17 bear fatalities in "north American", to calculate odds of death you would need to calculate those 17 against the entire population of North America, including Canada and Mexico.

Bottom line is that a basic statistical calculation using your numbers will very likely show an even lower chance of death from bears or alligators than do the National Park statistics.


Comparing the entire population is not the same. One can only compare the population that visits where the threat is located. Few people staying in Kansas are hit by tsunami's. Visitors to the Canadian Rockies won't be eaten by Alligators.

"What will kill you" figures you link are only useful in the most general sense. Water is dangerous etc.