Wow! The Biggie! This is THE question for folks working to prepare themselves for ....

What are the scenarios that you think are likely, What can you do about them, What will others do when these scenarios come-to-pass?

I think that there are some serious minded folks who feel that there is a true potential for a collapse of civilization following some disaster. Pick your scope and scale and you can find examples of this happening locally. Didn't take much to cause the riots in Watts or again in LA after the Rodney King fiasco. There was much disruption and lawlessness following Huricaine Andrew as well.

There are enough nukes in existance and in the hands of one country (Russia) to cause a disaster large enough to really disrupt things. The MAD scenarios of the late '60's are just as possible today as they were then. The only thing to our favor now is the political landscape isn't as polarized as it was then. The physical groundwork for that type of a disaster is still present.

Will there be lawlessness following major disruption - Probably. Will there also be a banding together of individuals within communities to help each other survive - probably. Unfortunately these are not mutually exclusive. The small to medium communities that are formed will defend themselves and there will be impromptu militias formed etc. The scale is the only question. Will they be smallish gangs of thugs roming the destroyed neighborhoods following hurricaine andrew or will they be full batallions of local militia raiding the local national guard armory? I think that there will always be lawless individuals and in times of crises there will be many who follow the law of Might-makes right because it feels safer. The commoner who is looking for safe-haven after the disaster may view the government as the strongest presence - if so then they will continue to attempt to support and re-establish the law and culture we know and love. OTOH if the disaster is sufficiently wide-spread that there becomes a sense of Governmental collapse or resentment toward the Government or simply Governmental absence then anyone with enough fire-power may become the protector of the people. Such locally elected individuals may be good or bad as luck would have it. Bad ones will lead just as surely as good ones and both will become petty tyrants until things stabilize. If this is only a local disturbance then when Fema and the National guard re-appear on the scene these petty tyrants will be deposed and folks will return to normal. If the scenario you are preparing for is on the scale of a full-on M.A.D. nuclear exchange then Fema and the National guard won't be showing up any time soon. In such case the petty tyrants will have sufficient time to establish well armed, demarked and defended fifedoms and that process will be non-gentle to say the least.

Why some folks get a glee in awaiting these scenarios is a complex issue. Some may feel that they are under-represented in the current society and await a total disruption in order to have a chance to "settle the score" They are probably the worst since they are already working to pre-establish thier own fifedoms in expectation of the opportunity. Some religious folks feel that Armagedeon will come and bring Judgement to the evil-doers and they can't wait for the Rapture. These are more-or-less harmless since they don't expect to have to survive through it they are mostly excited to be going on to "Whereever" their God has in store for them. BTW these religious folks aren't anything new. All the messianic religions share this prophecy and it was the failure of Christ to bring armegedeon that resulted in the larger body of Jewish folks deciding that he wasn't the Messiah. Christians still hold the hope that Christ will come back and start the Apocalypse even after he proved that his entire existance was about forgiveness and sacrafice. (I diverge widely and probably offend)


In anycase, There certainly are scenarios within the physical realm of possibility that could totally disrupt entire countries. The fact that the US is so physically large makes it hard for us to visualize this possibility but it is just such a blow that the Soviets planned and prepared to deliver and their weaponry is still sufficiently large enough to deal such a blow. There are probably also weather and geological events that could have the same impact on local scale and shorter time-frame. When the enforcement arm of the government is absent the lawless will have a larger impact on our lives than they do while they are kept busy hiding from the polliceman. Don't be niave enough to believe that there aren't lawless elements in our society that are kept somewhat controled by the presence of the policeman on the corner. Also don't ignore preparing for the impact of increased lawlessness in the wake of any disaster that removes or weakens the presence of the police officer.

If you think that the chances of a particular scenario are low enough that you don't want to prepare for it then put your cash and energy somewhere else. Whether that scenario is asteroid impact, MAD nuclear exchange, Train full of toxic waste derailment in your neighborhood, living through your next 757 trip over the atlantic and finding yourself in the water alive - Whatever the scenario it is wiser to fully evaluate the potential likelyhood and full consequences than to just ignore the issue and dispense with it by saying that those you have spoken to about it are Kooks. There are many who think I am quite a bit eccentric for carrying a tarp with me everywhere in my vest. Oh well! I was at a school cookout and there were more folks that picnic tables - My family was happily situated on the blanket we had brought when one of our friends came up and found that they would have to sit on the ground directly. I happily produced my extra tarp from the back of my vest and got the expected comments for all the silly gear I carry - But they were glad to not have to sit directly on the ground. If I find myself lost while taking a walk or if I have to walk home the same route that takes me an hour to drive in my daily commute I will be able to find a dry place to sleep and stay warm and fed with what's in my pockets. Others might be somewhat put out to accomplish the same. Do I expect to have to walk home - no but it could happen. Do I expect to have to use the spring-loaded center punch to get out of my car - no but it could happen. Do I expect there to be a M.A.D. nuclear exchange in my lifetime - no but it could happen.