I thought that this was an interesting article on how the NHC missed the mark, as far as wind speed is concerned, with Irene. However, they were 20% better than average on predicting the storm track, and that's an immensely critical thing to know as well.

Anyway, I think it's important to read about it and be aware of forecasting misses like this so that we don't simply become completely cynical about all forecasts in the future.

How Irene's forecast missed the mark and why it could happen again