Quote:
In a SHTF environment where cash has become meaningless, guns are useful, and ammo is not being sold at retail stores, I predict ammo related items will operate as a type of currency, beyond just merely a barter.


Exactly when and where has that particular environment existed. As far as I can tell it has never existed in the better than 240 years the US has been around. And I have a hard time coming up with any time and place outside the US. Yes, people have bartered and traded for weapons and ammunition. But it is hard to find a time when they were when cash has been "meaningless".

Generally, throughout history, having cash has meant getting weapons, and people to wield them for you, has been easy. A good example is the Mexican drug lords. They have cash from selling drugs and people are falling all over themselves to get and use guns for them.

On the other hand there were certain groups with guns, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, the outlaw bank robbers in the 30s, who had guns but who have been relatively short of cash.

While there have been some who used money to get guns, like a small percentage of drug kingpins, who have led short, miserable and relatively violent lives. There are many more who live quite well. Often living in luxury as their underlings carry the guns and die in the conflicts.

On the other hand among those who have had guns but far less money, particularly those who use their guns to try to get money, there is a high percentage who have miserable lives and live in constant fear.

From this it can be demonstrated that in terms of having a long, happy life and controlling your destiny money is clearly more powerful than weapons. As far as I can tell this is has always been true.

Yes, it is possible to imagine a hypothetical situation where this is not true. There are several movies and a fair amount of literature based on the assumption that such a situation might come up. But it remains to be seen that that situation is really possible. It hasn't happened in over 240 years of US history. And may not have ever come up in the thousands of years of human history.

Quote:
Just analyze the price of ammo in the last couple of years, and there wasn't even a massive SHTF situation.


A few things come to mind regarding the increased price of ammunition. The first is the Mexican drug lords buying stockpiles. Second, most servicemen returning are buying guns and loads of ammunition even if they had previously had little interest. Third, one of the largest manufacturers has essentially withdrawn from the civilian market. Fourth, the existing gun culture has as an inviolable assumption that there is no such thing as too much ammunition so they just keep on buying. An assumption the dealers and manufacturers enthusiastically reinforce for obvious reasons.

It has to be noted that the growers and dealers of tulips also did their best to support the increasing price of their product. Right up until the market tanked. Bubbles are like that.