Here is the Kill Bill worse case scenario i.e. a CAT 3 Hurricane (sustained winds 111-130 mph) striking New York;

Track Length = 1920 miles - Kill Bill average speed = 18mph

Time = 106.66hrs or 4 Days 10.66hrs

Time from the 1500 UTC WED AUG 19 placemarker = Monday 24th Aug 01.45 UTC or Sunday 23rd 21:45 EDT assuming of course this track is correct and Hurrican Bill maintains an average of 18mph exactly

High Tide in New York occurs @ 23:31 PM 5.2ft height

*** Please note this is my own predicted course calculation ***

What is quite worrying though at the moment is that the current projected tracks for Hurricane Bill require the track to deviate quite sharply north to north north east after passing to the West of Burmuda.

The National Hurricane Centre has the Hurricane has Bill located 200-225 miles West of Bermuda on Saturday morning around 08.00 am EDT- This would be consistent with their predicted track. If the track is 325-350 miles West of Bermuda instead then I would begin to seriously think about getting out of dodge i.e only a divergence difference of 125 miles between the 2 tracks. This would leave only about 38 hours to evacuate from New York City (probably only 24 hours realistically as you would want to be at a safe place for half a day or so to settle down).

As you can see evacuating millions of people with only a realistic 24 hrs Notice is going to be extremely difficult. Would the authorities even bother with the Evacuation notice - the notice time would be just to short and having millions out on the roads may be worse than having folks just hunker down and find a place above 3-4 storeys high. i.e higher than the 20-25 ft surge.

Somewhere I suspect there are some meteorologists and some computer programmers/modellers with some sweaty palms right now.

Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (08/20/09 01:26 AM)