Don't think about it. Pack what you know you NEED, put that in part of your kit. Put the stuff you will REALLY WANT or provides you with a safety margin on what you need. Can you put these two parts of your kit together and still have it be manageable?
Add a little bit of last ditch stuff in a pocket.
Take it for a test drive.
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-IronRaven
When a man dare not speak without malice for fear of giving insult, that is when truth starts to die. Truth is the truest freedom.