We do NOT know that it is extremely lethal. We know that among REPORTED cases it has a high mortality rate. What we do NOT know is how many people haven't been hospitalized, or even reported it to medical authorities.

And it would require a fairly radical mutation to make it readily transmittable among humans. You almost have to go out of your way to catch HN51 at this time- the humans who have caught it have mostly had wounds or sores that were exposed while handling the carcasses of dead or dieing birds, or did not wear even the simplest mask while doing so. Those who wore protective equipment and showered thoroughly and decontaminated or destroyed their clothing afterwards have had almost none, zero, no infections. When you have had human-human transition, it is by communication of bodily fluids are being in very close proximity, such as a loved one acting as a caregiver. It's almost as hard to catch HN51 as most STDs.

I was on the state's Y2K team, and people on the state's Bird Flu working group know me personally and run things past me because they know about my "morbid little hobby". In both cases, the human factor is going to grossly outweigh the actual problem's direct effects.

Well, no one has done blood tests of every single human on the planet if that's what you're getting at, but in the limited communitywide blood testing done so far in areas with H5N1 outbreaks like in Hong Kong and Vietnam, there is no evidence of widespread but unnoticed H5N1 infection. Basically, if the H5N1 virus can get a toehold in your body, you're going to get extremely ill.

Roughly half of the laboratory-confirmed cases of H5N1 infection have ended in death. By any medical standard, that's an extremely lethal disease. Very few infectious diseases kill that many people even if you limit your denominator to just those sick enough to seek medical care. For comparison, Spanish Flu "only" killed a couple percent of those who fell ill.

Genetic reassortment between H5N1 and a regular human influenza virus could theoretically give it the ability to easily pass from human-to-human and result in a full-blown pandemic strain literally overnight. That's the nightmare scenario that medical experts worry the most about because there won't be any warning signs before there's an explosion of new cases. H5N1 does not have to slowly mutate and evolve human-to-human transmissiblity on its own over time, although it could do that, too.

Right, if the H5N1 finds a host already infected with a readily transmittable human form influenza, and the two viruses comingle in host cells, the chance of a mutant factor developing that has both the lethal aspects of H5N1 and the infectious aspects of the human influenza will be quite high, in one host!!! The H5N1 only needs to modify it's receptor protein to something that human cells membranes have a greater affinity to and the show will begin. It is not a long shot radical mutation, but a very plausible and historically supported event that happens almost annually with current strains.

As far as lethality goes, H5N1, like most other influenza viruses, causes the body to generate cytochyme as an immune response to defend the system. However, in H5N1 currently, the virus overstimulates this response, and a cytochyme storm within the body occurs, which becomes a pathological event that compromises lung tissue. That's why an H5N1 infection is more devastating on young healthy people who's immune systems are working at peak efficiency. The body ends up working against itself. Combine this with the viruses ability to migrate to other organs and cause damage, and that makes this one bug that can do a lot of damage fast, and spread easily.

It would be good if we had the time to see the WHO come up with a broad spectrum vaccine, trying to counter the most likely recombinant variations that could occur. Unfortunately every year we are given vaccines that may or may not precisely target the one virus that will migrate the most. In a way, this little threat is doing us some good, forcing us to focus our efforts on developing more effective treatment processes. Necessity is the mother of invention.

A lot less people back then and a much more widely spread population than today. Don't think any government around today has the ability to handle disaster on a large scale.Plus when/if there is something that widespread going on food supplies and other utilities will suffer only adding to the problem of starvation and disease-people won't be happy when the pooper is in the backyard next to the dogs can

could you elaborate on the few goodies from the hardware and electronics stores for inquiring minds. thx...

Benjamin, I couldn't find "cytochyme" on google. Do you mean cytokine? Or cytochrome?

It is cytokine. I was pretty knackered yesterday and I think my posts reflect the rummies a bit.

Yep, a DC PC cooling fan, like, a small hepa rated vacuum cleaner filter , a project box, the electronics to build a small dc regulator circuit, a sealed LA cell, probably 12v, and some wire etc. I would punch a hole in the back of the helmet, rig up the fan and the hepa system, and run a positive pressure system into the helmet. Keeps the head cool and provides virus free fresh air. You can get a full face PP filter setup, but who has a spare $500 sitting around? Mine cost me about $100. If the virus can't get in, then you don't get infected.

This would also help with hayfever (hint: original motivation for the application).

You have to get a fan that has enough cfm to overcome your respiratory volume, otherwise you will draw negative pressure on the inhale to hard and unfiltered air will come in the bottom of the helmet.

Or you could just wear a disposable particle mask and a set of goggles, but that doesn't look as cool.

If you're interested in doing some more reading, try looking up the phrase "cytokine storm" on Google. That should give you some interesting reading on the rev'd up immune response that Benjammin was mentioning.