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#49168 - 09/16/05 11:10 AM Last night's Primetime TV Show
xbanker Offline
Addict

Registered: 04/21/05
Posts: 484
Loc: Anthem, AZ USA
Dealt with the question: Is the country prepared for the next big disaster? Explored three scenarios: outbreak of Avian flu, earthquake in Bay area and detonation of a small nuclear device.

For me personally, coverage of the latter two didn’t provide much in the way of knowledge I didn’t already have.

Sobering, though, was the longest segment: likelihood and effects of an Avian flu outbreak – the granddaddy of all flu’s.

This kinda set the tone: "According to Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, Bush's call to remain on the offensive has come too late."

Not too surprising is that US is behind other countries in its preparations. And unlike the two other scenarios, they didn’t discuss much what precautions the average individual or family might take.

Those of you with the expertise – what can one do of a proactive nature? Anything? Or is luck your biggest friend?
Here's the transcript of the flu-segment. Interesting reading.
_________________________
"Things that have never happened before happen all the time." — Scott Sagan, The Limits of Safety

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#49169 - 09/16/05 01:54 PM Re: Last night's Primetime TV Show
NIM Offline
Member

Registered: 02/12/03
Posts: 128
Get in shape. Eat healthy. Keep a positive attitude.
You may want to investigate collodial silver and something called a 'zapper' by Dr. Beck I think

Not much else you can do. Maybe flee it in advance?

-Nim

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#49170 - 09/16/05 03:07 PM Re: Last night's Primetime TV Show
IanPorter Offline


Registered: 01/27/05
Posts: 21
Loc: Missouri
I didn't see the program, but I recently attended a seminar put on by the Department of Health. They discussed many topics, including avian influenza. The conclusion was we aren't ready and aren't likely to be anytime soon.
The primary concept I came away with was:
1. Be young
2. Be Healthy
3. Be ready and mobile
4. Be lucky (if you’re in the wrong place at the wrong time, the other 3 won't matter)

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#49171 - 09/16/05 04:53 PM Re: Last night's Primetime TV Show
JimJr Offline
Member

Registered: 05/03/05
Posts: 133
Loc: Central Mississippi
Being young and healthy wasn't a defense in the 1920 flu pandemic. Being "less sociable" was. Don't shake hands, avoid contact with other people, stay home and be stand-offish when out. Become obesssive about hand washing. Not fun, but the best way to deal with virial infections is not to contract them.


Edited by JimJr (09/16/05 04:54 PM)

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#49172 - 09/16/05 05:42 PM Re: Last night's Primetime TV Show
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
I only caught the tail end of the show, about a nuclear detonation, but I read the transcript (thanks for the link xbanker).

Something like the Spanish Flu is truly frightening and unlike any normal flu we are accustomed to dealing with. During the Spanish Flu, 21 million died worldwide and 10% of Americans were infected. The Spanish Flu started in the US and infected WWI soldiers being rushed overseas who then spread it to Europe. Even the distant Pacific island of Samoa was slammed and 20% of its population died. Spanish Flu killed people in 2-3 days. Whole Inuit villages were completely wiped out.

Although these points below seem common sense, they may not actually be beneficial in another Spanish Flu outbreak.

>>1. Be young
>>2. Be Healthy
The Spanish Flu primarily killed young, healthy adults, not young children and the elderly, as we normally associate with flu deaths. But every epidemic is different. Of course, in general, it's best to be in good health--and young.

>> 3. Be ready and mobile
If you're infected (and you may not show symptoms), then moving is a bad thing to do. From a public health perspective (that's my background), in epidemic situations, it is very, very important to find infected people and people at risk so you can be isolated, treated, vaccinated, etc. If your neighbor gets sick and you flee to another state with no flu and you're infected (and maybe not showing symptoms), you could've just spread it to another state and you'll be dead anyway.

This last point is a difficult one to wrestle with personally. Yes, you might save yourself and your family by fleeing and it's our natural instinct when faced with danger, but if everyone did that (and they likely will want to during an epidemic) then it puts others at risk. Say you flee to your mother's house. You might be signing her death warrant if you're infected, or if some other infected person fled to her area, both you and your mom could still end up dead before you had time to flee to yet another place.

The only nation that largely escaped the Spanish Flu's cruel blade? Australia. They had very stringent quarantine procedures. I'm not sure about internal travel, but definitely in terms of in and out of the country. Honestly, from a Greater Good perspective, listen to public health officials and stay put and hunker down.

>> 4. Be lucky
Yes, definitely.

Some other points:

1. Get some Tamiflu. It has shown some effectiveness against the H5N1 strain, but then again, the real killer strain could be different and Tamiflu might be useless. Personally, I would not get Tamiflu now. There is already a global shortage and letting the government build a stockpile that can be distributed in infected areas first is more important. Again, my Greater Good bent showing through.

2. Get a flu shot. One of two likely sources of the next killer flu will come about when a person with a highly infectious strain of "normal" flu comes into contact with a lethal, but not-so-infectious strain. Influenza viruses have the ability to swap genetic material with other flu strains so the ability to become highly infectious from the regular flu could get swapped into this potent strain and BAM! Global pandemic. If you can lower the level of active flu infections in the general population, you lessen the chance of this genetic swapping occuring.

What's the other way a killer bug could develop? Mutation within the same strain itself. Most organism can correct genetic errors when they reproduce, but flu viruses do not. These occasional mistakes are what scientists mean by "mutations". Mutations also cause cancers.

3. Be wary of poultry farms. No, really. Chickens are a prime resevoir of avian flu and where humans become infected with avian flu. Only the mass cullings of millions of birds in various countries since the 80's, including here in the US, have headed off potential flu outbreaks so far. Again, we need to minimize the mixing and swapping of flu genetic materials.

Masks may not help much in protecting you, even N95/N99 masks. Remember SARS and everyone in Hong Kong wearing masks? Actually, masks should be used to minimize a sick person from spreading SARS, not to try to prevent a healthy person from getting sick. Well, they may minimize you touching your mouth or nose with an infected hand. And true, health workers wore masks, but they need every little edge they can get.

Although Asia is likely were the next killer flu will originate, it could originate right here in the US. The Spanish Flu is the perfect example of a "Made in the USA" pandemic. Current evidence suggests that it jumped from pigs into humans. Hmmm, so stay away from pigs, too!


Edited by Arney (09/16/05 07:18 PM)

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#49173 - 09/19/05 03:22 PM Re: Last night's Primetime TV Show
harrkev Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/05/01
Posts: 384
Loc: Colorado Springs, CO
Quote:
You may want to investigate collodial silver

Stay away from this stuff. If you take too much of it, your skil will turn a nice gray color, permenantly. I believe that there are also other long-term effects.
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Darwin was wrong -- I'm still alive

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