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#296847 - 08/21/20 09:08 PM Re: Maintain Awareness [Re: chaosmagnet]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1198
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: chaosmagnet
Where I live, COVID cases are over-counted. Our authorities are on the record stating that every decedent in my county who tests positive is counted as a COVID death, excepting only obvious trauma victims.

OK, assume COVID 19 deaths are over-counted by a factor of 10. That still means there have been 17,700 deaths from the virus.

I find it very hard to believe that our epidemiologists would be off by full order of magnitude in their estimates of COVID19 deaths, but even if they are, the relative risk from the virus is still vastly larger than from protests.

Also, we need to consider that it isn't just a binary case of if you catch COVID you either recover and are fine, or you die. There is ample and mounting evidence that many people who catch the virus and survive still suffer continuing serious health consequences. For example, a friend of mine was of the very early cases in our area. He was an very aerobically fit guy for his age, but 5 months after he recovered he still suffers significant shortness of breath. We are only beginning to understand the long term effects of this virus!


Edited by AKSAR (08/21/20 09:38 PM)
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"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
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#296849 - 08/21/20 10:27 PM Re: Maintain Awareness [Re: AKSAR]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 2202
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: AKSAR
What is sad is the lack of objectively evaluating relative risks.

Also sad is the inability to recognize things you can personally do something about, and things that you cannot.

Can you personally do something to change the COVID risk on an airplane? No.
Can you personally do something to change the California wildfire damage? No.
Can you personally do something to change the damage already incurred from derecho winds? No.
Can you personally do something to divert the tropical storms in the Gulf from land? No.

Can you personally do something to enhance your security/safety during times of social unrest? Yes.

So sure, look at relative risks. But also look at risks that you can actually do something about. And look at risks that may be mitigated, but require the cooperation/coordination of many people. Versus risks that can be mitigated with action by you alone.

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#296850 - 08/21/20 11:20 PM Re: Maintain Awareness [Re: haertig]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1198
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: haertig
Originally Posted By: AKSAR
What is sad is the lack of objectively evaluating relative risks.

Also sad is the inability to recognize things you can personally do something about, and things that you cannot.

Can you personally do something to change the COVID risk on an airplane? No.
Yes I can. I can avoid the trip all together. I can wear an N95 mask for the entire time I'm on the plane or in the airport. (Airlines are only now beginning to enforce mask wearing. Terminals not so much.) I can minimize my exposure by taking direct flights and/or flying at off peak hours when planes might be less crowded. I can do part of the trip by auto to minimize the time on a plane.
Since the start of COVID19 I have done all of the above.
Originally Posted By: haertig
Can you personally do something to change the California wildfire damage? No.
Yes. If I have a home in wildfire country I can clear brush and trees around it ("defensible space"). I can make sure my roof is made of less flammable materials. I can make sure I'm packed and ready to evacuate at a moments notice. I can monitor the situation, and leave when the authorities tell me to (not try to second guess them).
Originally Posted By: haertig
Can you personally do something to change the damage already incurred from derecho winds? No.
Again, I can pay attention to forecasts. I can have my affairs in order to minimize hassles with insurance and FEMA. I can have back up power available.
Originally Posted By: haertig
Can you personally do something to divert the tropical storms in the Gulf from land? No.
Divert them? No. However I can take steps to make sure my home is as resistant as possible to wind and flood damage. I can monitor the weather forecasts, and be ready to evacuate at a moments notice. I can evacuate when the authorities tell me to, not try second guess them.

The main point being that in my opinion, civil unrest is pretty far down the list of things to be worried about. And, as I alluded to in my previous post, I tend to worry far more about the "....300-400 (and growing) and enough arms to start a small war. Counted at least a dozen with body armor" crowd than I do about the original protestors.


Edited by AKSAR (08/21/20 11:24 PM)
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"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#296851 - 08/22/20 12:43 AM Re: Maintain Awareness [Re: Doug_Ritter]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 2202
Loc: Colorado
It sounds like you are prepared for just about anything. Except maybe civil unrest - which is the topic of this thread. Your entry into this thread pretty much poopoo'ed the original topic, did a little lecturing and belittling, then moved on to other topics. It's fine if you are not concerned by civil unrest. But at least acknowledge that others of us are, and for good reason. Doug brought up a pretty important point, "Hey, this happened right near my home". Maybe he meant his office, not home - I couldn't tell for sure what "near us" in his post meant. But whatever, the proximity is pretty relevant, and indicates that civil unrest danger is indeed real for some of us, if not for you personally.

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#296855 - 08/23/20 12:10 AM Re: Maintain Awareness [Re: Doug_Ritter]
brandtb Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 11/26/04
Posts: 390
Loc: S.E. Pennsylvania
This post seemed to me to be well-intentioned but went over the line as being too political.



chaosmagnet


Edited by chaosmagnet (08/23/20 02:13 AM)
Edit Reason: Too political
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#296856 - 08/23/20 02:20 AM Re: Maintain Awareness [Re: Herman30]
Phaedrus Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 2761
Loc: Big Sky Country
Post deleted.


chaosmagnet


Edited by chaosmagnet (08/23/20 06:41 PM)
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“I'd rather have questions that cannot be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” —Richard Feynman

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