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#294764 - 02/01/20 03:42 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Ren]
EMPnotImplyNuclear Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/10/08
Posts: 374
Originally Posted By: Ren

Source is WHO, CDC, ECDC (European CDC) collated by John's Hopkins University.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Total Deaths vs Total Recovered.

Hi,
Thanks, thats interesting,
but where are the flu numbers?
percentages?
Anything that says coronavirus is more lethal than flu,
anything to make sense or explain this comparison which does not make any sense
Originally Posted By: Ren
Flu is not effective at killing people.
8,200 / 15,000,000 is 0.054%.
nCoV current rate is a 1,000 times higher. More people are dying than recovering.

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#294768 - 02/01/20 05:23 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: EMPnotImplyNuclear]
Alan_Romania Offline

Addict

Registered: 06/29/05
Posts: 631
Loc: Arizona


Attachments
Influenza-Chart-Infographic-high-res.jpg (47 downloads)



Edited by Alan_Romania (02/01/20 05:24 AM)
_________________________
"Trust in God --and press-check. You cannot ignore danger and call it faith." -Duke

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#294779 - 02/04/20 03:24 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Famdoc Offline
Member

Registered: 04/29/09
Posts: 135
Loc: PA
Seasonal influenza mortality is roughly 0.1% historically.

Roughly 80% of the flu deaths occur in people who were um-immunized.

Depending on the strain of virus, the vaccine decreases the risk of getting the flu by 30-55%, which isn't anywhere the degree of protection anyone wishes for.

On the other hand, not getting immunized gives you zero protection.

The new corona virus mortality being reported is 2-2.4%; but this does not account for what are presumed to be asymptomatic infections, which would lower the mortality rate, or whether the publicly reported cases and number of deaths in China is reliable, which could shift the mortality rate up or down.

The mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish Flu is estimated at 10-20%.

SARS mortality rate was just under 10%.

MERS mortality rate is 30-40%.

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#294780 - 02/04/20 03:39 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3436
Loc: USA
One more data point: people who get the seasonal flu after being immunized against it generally have less severe symptoms.

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#294782 - 02/04/20 10:20 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Famdoc]
EMPnotImplyNuclear Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/10/08
Posts: 374
Originally Posted By: Famdoc
Seasonal influenza mortality is roughly 0.1% historically.

The new corona virus mortality being reported is 2-2.4%; but

Hi
Can you cite a single article that says corona virus has higher mortality than flu?


Some headlines
Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier
Amid coronavirus outbreak, doctors remind public flu is deadlier


cant compare numbers from different sources if they aren't calculated the same way

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#294787 - 02/05/20 09:09 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Famdoc Offline
Member

Registered: 04/29/09
Posts: 135
Loc: PA
As described in previous posts in this thread, the data are preliminary, as the number of infected but asymptomatic persons is unknown and will remain unknown for an unknown amount of time.

The supplied headlines:
Some headlines
Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier
Amid coronavirus outbreak, doctors remind public flu is deadlier

are meant to communicate, accurately, that seasonal influenza has currently killed many more people in the US, and across the world than 2019-nCov:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

From the WHO:
http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667

492 deaths divided by 24,562 confirmed cases equals a current death rate of 2%. The reported death rate appears to be decreasing as the epidemic continues.

Epidemiologists estimate there are many more unconfirmed cases than confirmed, due to shortages of medical personnel to do the test, lack of test kits, shut downs of transportation, self-quarantines of the more mildly sick, etc. So, the actual mortality rate may be much lower than 2%; this will probably not be known until the epidemic is over.

The death rate from 2010nCoV in the US and almost all countries other than China is currently zero: hence the headlines that the flu is deadlier than 2019nCoV (in the US and most of the rest of the world.) This appears to be due primarily to the far, far, far fewer cases of 2019nCoV outside of China.

With the number of Chinese going back and forth between Africa and South America, it strains my credibility that there are really no cases of 2019nCoV, as per the WHO disease map linked above, on those two huge and populous continents.

I suspect that much more likely is a lack of testing kits, and personnel to do the testing, and the expense of doing the testing and management of those if found to be positive.

If one assumes the infection and death rate from seasonal influenza in Wuhan, China is roughly the same as in the US, then out of a city of 11 million, roughly 1 million would get the flu each year. An estimated death rate of 0.1% would result in 1100 deaths in a single flu season.

So, currently, roughly half way through the annual flu season, one might expect to see around 550 deaths from the flu in Wuhan, which is close to the number of reported deaths in Wuhan (491) from 2019nCov. So even in Wuhan, there might be more deaths from the flu than the coronavirus if past and current experience and data is in any way reliable. This will be different by next week, I think.

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#294788 - 02/06/20 03:40 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Famdoc]
EMPnotImplyNuclear Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/10/08
Posts: 374
Originally Posted By: Famdoc
As described in previous posts in this thread, the data are preliminary, as the number of infected but asymptomatic persons is unknown and will remain unknown for an unknown amount of tim....
If one assumes the infection and death rate from seasonal influenza in Wuhan, China is roughly the same as in the US, t
...


?confused?

whistle

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on January 30, 2020, 6.7% of the deaths occurring during the week ending January 18, 2020 (week 3) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 3.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu.



Originally Posted By: Alan_Romania

12,000 - 61,000 deaths
140,000 - 810,000 hospitalizations
9.4million - 45million illnesses


whistle


6.7% = 3.35 * 2%

10,000 / 180,000 = 5.5555556%
5.5555556% = 2.7777778 * 2



12,000 / 140,000 = 8.5714286%
8.5714286% = 4.2857143 * %2

61,000/810,000 = 7.5308642%
7.5308642% = 3.7654321 * 2%




:shrug:&#129335;
:|&#128528;

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#294790 - 02/06/20 02:11 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5338
Loc: SOCAL
There’s a good article on critical thinking as it relates to 2019 nCoV at: "What Were We Thinking?"Zero Hedge

For those who dislike ZH, the original article is at:
Pandemic, Lies and Videos — oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith

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#294791 - 02/06/20 05:47 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Famdoc]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7371
Loc: southern Cal
I appreciate Famdoc's rational summation of the situation. Abstract stats are much less valuable

This is a rapidly developing situation, so pay attention. Wash your hands (terribly prosaic advice, but useful) and avoid large crowds, something I do anyway.

The eventual morality rate is 100%.
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#294792 - 02/06/20 06:52 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5338
Loc: SOCAL
Latest stats — “Coronavirus in Context”


What concerns me most is the 14 days incubation while a carrier is contagious. As Alan Romania stated in an earlier post, watch the next two weeks.

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