A coronavirus has been identified which originated in China and is now spreading to other countries. This virus causes pneumonia which can be fatal. Here is a link to an article on the New York Times website which is being updated by the hour as additional information becomes available...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/world/asia/china-coronavirus-wuhan.html

... these developments, coupled with the intense Flu season we're already experiencing in the United States, should spur everyone to review their preparations and take whatever steps you feel necessary.

Re-reading Preston's 'Hot Zone.'
No reason.

I was just at an EMT refresher course. One of the topics was infectious diseases, and the instructor talked at some length about pandemics. Pretty scary stuff.

The Atlantic had a good article on the topic awhile back: The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready?

I'm not especially worried but we do seem due/overdue for a pandemic. Hopefully it will be contained with minimal additional suffering.

4 people hospitalised in Scotland with symptoms

Read an article on BBC about the effectiveness of face masks in preventing diseases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51205344

Good hygiene continues to be the best method.

In China a number of cities (at least 10, affecting 35 million people) have been "quarantined" to some extent. No flights in and out. This is the period of the White Spring Festival otherwise known as Chinese New Years (1 week leading up to New Years Day and 1 week following New Years Day). Many overseas Chinese went back to China to celebrate the season with family and friends.

But people are beginning to panic. I don't know what panic means in China - what are people doing? Are they shutting themselves inside, avoiding contact, limiting their shopping, trying to get away from others? I just don't know. Even with the authorities controlling access to information, the amount of information that does get disseminated or rather the misinformation that gets disseminated has got to scare people.

Then what happens after the Festival - people are going to try to come back to their other country: US, Canada, Euro, Australia, etc. That's when the true fallout and contamination will occur. It may not be an international situation now according to the WHO standard but give it a couple of weeks and it could get ugly.

This virus is something we all need to keep informed about; not scared but careful. Hopefully it won't mutate and become more easily transmitted. Or perhaps it will mutate and become less of an issue.

9 cities? Close to 30 million people. Furthest away from Wuhan is 200 miles. Clear it's been travelling by train.

Already had one woman that had symptoms, took medication to reduce her temperature so she could get through screening. And got on a flight to Paris, France. And then bragging about it on social media.

More research has determined that the coronavirus MAY in fact have been stolen from Canada. The coronavirus arrived at Canada’s NML Winnipeg facility on May 4, 2013 from the Dutch lab. The Canadian lab grew up stocks of the virus and used it to assess diagnostic tests being used in Canada. Winnipeg scientists worked to see which animal species can be infected with the new virus. Research was done in conjunction with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s national lab, the National Centre for Foreign Animal Diseases which is housed in the same complex as the National Microbiology Laboratory.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/d...pJZ_eFSJm1l1TR8
https://greatgameindia.com/chinese-researchers-caught-stealing-coronavirus-from-canadian-lab/

Last year, a Chinese scientist, her husband and her students were removed from a BLS-4 lab in Winnipeg concerning sending viral material to China from the lab to a BLS-4 lab in Wuhan which coincidentally is only 20 miles from the centre of the outbreak in China. On top of this, it is known that China has an advanced bio-weapons warfare component and it is suspected that China was in fact weaponizing the coronavirus. https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

"Xiangguo Qiu is an outstanding Chinese scientist born in Tianjin. She primarily received her medical doctor degree from Hebei Medical University in China in 1985 and came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996. Later on, she was affiliated with the Institute of Cell Biology and the Department of Pediatrics and Child Health of the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, not engaged with studying pathogens. Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, the Chinese Biological Warfare Agent working at the National Microbiology Laboratory, Canada. But a shift took place, somehow. Since 2006, she has been studying powerful viruses in Canada’s NML. The viruses shipped from the NML to China were studied by her in 2014, for instance (together with the viruses Machupo, Junin, Rift Valley Fever, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever and Hendra). Dr. Xiangguo Qiu made at least five trips over the school year 2017-18 to the above mentioned Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which was certified for BSL4 in January 2017. Moreover, in August 2017, the National Health Commission of China approved research activities involving Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses at the Wuhan facility."

Infection map from John Hopkins

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

81 deaths, 59 recovered. So 140 cases resolved.
81/140 or 57% death rate of those infected.
2,886 reported infected, so at least 1,670 deaths expected.

Hey Roar, I respectfully suggest a highly sceptical view of this. It is most likely an example of lurid conspiracy fiction.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/china-coronavirus-online-chatter-conspiracy-1.5442376

I’ve read a more optimistic estimate of the death rate from the Wuhan Coronavirus, as being a bit worse than seasonal flu. Let’s hope the more optimistic estimate is accurate.

I don't have any secret information but from what I've read and heard from qualified and non-sensationalist sources this virus has a lower mortality rate than most flu strains. Plus is seems that the majority of deaths are in groups that are immunocompromised, especially the elderly. This is in stark contrast to some flu strains that kill a disproportionate amount of healthy young folks.

12 hours later.

4,474 infected, 107 dead, 63 recovered
107/170 is 63%.


I'm not convinced it's just slight worse than the flu. CDC estimates 35 million people in the US had the flu, with 34,157 deaths in 2018-2019.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

And that's without imposing travel restrictions on 50 million people, building 4 hospitals dedicated to the virus in a fortnight. It's the response and the economic damage China is prepared to undergo, is causing the worry.

The source of the numbers needs to be considered — politics & business versus health. Don’t know, I doubt this strain of coronavirus is like the common flu. That said, I was out and about yesterday, and there is at least one case of nCoV in Orange County which is right next door. When people start coming down with nCoV who haven’t been to China recently I’ll get more concerned. So far everyone I’ve read about has recently been to Wuhan. No need to panic (yet).

I’m not totally discounting the need to prepare though. Surgical masks selling out across US amid fears over coronavirus I checked and I’ve got half a box of the disposable type Isolation masks (box marked 99% at .1 micron) and a few reusable masks which are more comfortable. I bought them during one of the wildfires here when the air was heavy; few boxes of surgical gloves are also readily available.

Yeah, I read that this morning. Parts of it are still 100% true, for example the scientist, her husband and students were removed from the facility. China does have a bio-weapon program. But the theft of the viruses was denied. I put this in the "probably didn't happen" category but would not rule this out. That why when I posted I emphasized the MAY have wording.

"A German man who tested positive for the strain of coronavirus sweeping across China was infected by a work colleague, officials said on Tuesday, in what is believed to be the first human transmission in Europe."

Okay — Germany Confirms 3 More Coronavirus Cases; Human-To-Human Transmission Suspected — still not a reason to panic. Gather supplies and stay aware.

Agree, no need to panic but gathering supplies and being aware is prudent.
I consider myself fairly well stocked up but have added some extra supplies.
Mainly propane, this fuel is much less used in the UK than in the USA.
Whilst times are normal I don't use any propane, but it is handy for breakdowns and emergencies.
I have purchased another two bottles each of 13 kilos contents. Existing stock was one full bottle and one half full.

I normally cook with electricity, but have a high capacity boiling ring for emergencies. Each 13 kilo cylinder would give about 50 hours operation of one burner.

I normally heat with wood in the main living room and electricity elsewhere, but have a portable propane heater for emergencies. One 13 kilo cylinder will give 50 hours heating.

I am well stocked with non perishable foods, but the main problem would be cooking. I can do limited cooking on the wood burning room heater, but propane is preferable.

A little perspective.

The small city I live in has had 4 deaths from flu so far this month.

However, there have been eight cases of human-to-human infection - in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51318246

More perspective.


A deadly virus is spreading from state to state and has infected 15 million Americans so far.

(CNN)The novel coronavirus that's sickening thousands globally -- and at least five people in the US -- is inspiring countries to close their borders and Americans to buy up surgical masks quicker than major retailers can restock them.

There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.

The 2019-2020 flu season is projected to be one of the worst in a decade, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. At least 140,000 people have been hospitalized with complications from the flu, and that number is predicted to climb as flu activity swirls.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html

Flu is not effective at killing people.

8,200 / 15,000,000 is 0.054%.

nCoV current rate is a 1,000 times higher. More people are dying than recovering.

National travel is part of my job. I’m flying home tomorrow. So far, I’m not seeing anything that will cause me to curtail my work travel. But I’m watching.

No matter how you want to do the math, the flu is a bigger threat to almost any person in the USA or here in Canada for that matter. I would be far more concerned about getting the flu then the Coronavirus. And one thing about either virus - they don't care about the math and statistics and both can and will kill you dead when least expected.

Also, I rather heed the advice of Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at Harvard Medical School:

In the US, the average person is at extremely low risk of catching this novel coronavirus. This winter, in fact, we are much more likely to get influenza B — the flu — than any other virus: one in 10 people have influenza each flu season. It’s still not too late to get a flu shot, an easy step toward avoiding the flu. If you do get the flu despite having gotten the vaccine, studies show that severe illness, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death are less likely to occur.

The bottom line

Given the current spread of this virus and the pace and complexity of international travel, the number of cases and deaths will likely to continue to climb. We should not panic, even though we are dealing with a serious and novel pathogen.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-new-coronavirus-what-we-do-and-dont-know-2020012518747

Hi,
Who is your fact checker?

Redacted.

cnn.com: Currently, the case fatality rate for Wuhan virus is around 2% -- significantly smaller than SARS' 9.6% mortality rate. It's also smaller than Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) -- another type of coronavirus -- which has a case fatality rate of 35%.

Redacted.

Source is WHO, CDC, ECDC (European CDC) collated by John's Hopkins University.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Total Deaths vs Total Recovered.

This should be concerning, but not much more so that the Flu. The outbreak is classified as Worsening, but not significantly outside of Mainland China. It will get much worse in China, and we will likely see an increase of confirmed cases in the United States but with all the action that has been taken to isolate the outbreak in place the peak will be in the next two weeks and will drop off significantly after that. Take normal precautions as you would during flu season and you will reduce your risk of infection significantly.

Good advice.

There is an article at: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early esti...mic predictions The key findings relates to the transmissivity of the virus. Any number over 1.0 indicates that the virus won’t go away on its own. The number in the article is estimated at 3.6 - 4.0; other numbers I’ve seen have been lower, 2.5 - 3.4. Both ranges are over 1.0 though which means nCoV won’t die off on its own.

Those numbers are necessarily estimated out of the infections in China, where it was allowed to run wild (for weeks) before any serious steps were evident. The human-to-human infection in the United States was between a husband and wife who apparently took no preventative measures. First human-to-human nCoV spread reported in US

Hi,
Thanks, thats interesting,
but where are the flu numbers?
percentages?
Anything that says coronavirus is more lethal than flu,
anything to make sense or explain this comparison which does not make any sense

CDC data on the Flu

Seasonal influenza mortality is roughly 0.1% historically.

Roughly 80% of the flu deaths occur in people who were um-immunized.

Depending on the strain of virus, the vaccine decreases the risk of getting the flu by 30-55%, which isn't anywhere the degree of protection anyone wishes for.

On the other hand, not getting immunized gives you zero protection.

The new corona virus mortality being reported is 2-2.4%; but this does not account for what are presumed to be asymptomatic infections, which would lower the mortality rate, or whether the publicly reported cases and number of deaths in China is reliable, which could shift the mortality rate up or down.

The mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish Flu is estimated at 10-20%.

SARS mortality rate was just under 10%.

MERS mortality rate is 30-40%.

One more data point: people who get the seasonal flu after being immunized against it generally have less severe symptoms.

Hi
Can you cite a single article that says corona virus has higher mortality than flu?


Some headlines
Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier
Amid coronavirus outbreak, doctors remind public flu is deadlier


cant compare numbers from different sources if they aren't calculated the same way

As described in previous posts in this thread, the data are preliminary, as the number of infected but asymptomatic persons is unknown and will remain unknown for an unknown amount of time.

The supplied headlines:
Some headlines
Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier
Amid coronavirus outbreak, doctors remind public flu is deadlier

are meant to communicate, accurately, that seasonal influenza has currently killed many more people in the US, and across the world than 2019-nCov:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

From the WHO:
http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667

492 deaths divided by 24,562 confirmed cases equals a current death rate of 2%. The reported death rate appears to be decreasing as the epidemic continues.

Epidemiologists estimate there are many more unconfirmed cases than confirmed, due to shortages of medical personnel to do the test, lack of test kits, shut downs of transportation, self-quarantines of the more mildly sick, etc. So, the actual mortality rate may be much lower than 2%; this will probably not be known until the epidemic is over.

The death rate from 2010nCoV in the US and almost all countries other than China is currently zero: hence the headlines that the flu is deadlier than 2019nCoV (in the US and most of the rest of the world.) This appears to be due primarily to the far, far, far fewer cases of 2019nCoV outside of China.

With the number of Chinese going back and forth between Africa and South America, it strains my credibility that there are really no cases of 2019nCoV, as per the WHO disease map linked above, on those two huge and populous continents.

I suspect that much more likely is a lack of testing kits, and personnel to do the testing, and the expense of doing the testing and management of those if found to be positive.

If one assumes the infection and death rate from seasonal influenza in Wuhan, China is roughly the same as in the US, then out of a city of 11 million, roughly 1 million would get the flu each year. An estimated death rate of 0.1% would result in 1100 deaths in a single flu season.

So, currently, roughly half way through the annual flu season, one might expect to see around 550 deaths from the flu in Wuhan, which is close to the number of reported deaths in Wuhan (491) from 2019nCov. So even in Wuhan, there might be more deaths from the flu than the coronavirus if past and current experience and data is in any way reliable. This will be different by next week, I think.

??



Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on January 30, 2020, 6.7% of the deaths occurring during the week ending January 18, 2020 (week 3) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 3.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu.








6.7% = 3.35 * 2%

10,000 / 180,000 = 5.5555556%
5.5555556% = 2.7777778 * 2



12,000 / 140,000 = 8.5714286%
8.5714286% = 4.2857143 * %2

61,000/810,000 = 7.5308642%
7.5308642% = 3.7654321 * 2%




:shrug:🤷
:|😐

There’s a good article on critical thinking as it relates to 2019 nCoV at: "What Were We Thinking?" — Zero Hedge

For those who dislike ZH, the original article is at:
Pandemic, Lies and Videos — oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith

I appreciate Famdoc's rational summation of the situation. Abstract stats are much less valuable

This is a rapidly developing situation, so pay attention. Wash your hands (terribly prosaic advice, but useful) and avoid large crowds, something I do anyway.

The eventual morality rate is 100%.

Latest stats — “Coronavirus in Context”


What concerns me most is the 14 days incubation while a carrier is contagious. As Alan Romania stated in an earlier post, watch the next two weeks.

We already have some; Mom has searched the Internet for more N95 masks. Most sites have sold out, and the few that still have masks are selling them for triple the original price.

Jeanette Isabelle

Since every other person in Asia is wearing a face mask, that must be the way to stop the spread of the virus??

Not so, apparently. It maskes even more sense to wash your hands and avoid contact with your face and eyes:
https://blogs.webmd.com/webmd-doctors/20200127/can-wearing-mask-protect-you-from-coronavirus

Apparently, masks work best to keep an infected person from spreading the irus via airborne droplets.

The habitual use of facemasks dtes back to the practices of the Japanese, afflicted by the horrendous bombing of WWII.

I purchased an N99 mask on Amazon a couple of months ago. It sits in my car with a mil surp goggle.

Today on Woot, 80 N95 respirators for $50:

https://tools.woot.com/offers/3m-particulate-respirator-box-of-80z-2?ref=w_cnt_lnd_cat_tool_1_184

The corona virus now has an official name - COVID-19.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-deaths-who-1.5459237

Sold out.

Jeanette Isabelle

"Health authorities in China’s Hubei province – the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic – reported on Thursday 14,840 new confirmed cases, almost 10 times the number reported a day earlier, and new deaths attributable to the contagion rose to 242, more than double on the day."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...e-new-confirmed

It's my understanding that the jump in cases is more attributable to a change in diagnostic procedure than a rapid increase in infections.

Is THIS Why Most Coronavirus Deaths Have Been In Chinese Men?  

Good article, but the title is misleading because it’s not really about the Chinese or men, it’s more about ACE2 (aka Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2). It happens though that ACE2 levels are higher in people who smoke and in general, Chinese men are heavy smokers, it’s a social thing. (a few years back a Chinese neighbor’s father was visiting from China and he offered me a cigarette every time we met. He just didn’t seem to understand that none of his daughters neighbors smoked.)

Not saying it’s definite, but it’s possible that high ACE2 levels form a pathway (vector?) for the virus. Don’t know, I’m not a doctor nor a microbiologist.

I’ve never been a medical professional or scientist, but I’m pretty sure that smoking increases your risk for respiratory infections in general, and I know from long-ago previous experience that respiratory infections tend to be much worse for smokers. I quit many years ago.

The lining of the airways has cilia, tiny hair like things which sweep the mucous up and out of the airways. Nicotine paralyses the cilia, and causes the mucous secreting cells to proliferate and produce thicker mucous to protect the interior of the airways. With the cilia paralysed, you then have to cough to clear the mucous. This damages the lungs and eventually produces COPD. Substances in the tar reduce your resistance to infection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

20 times more deadly than flu.
64% of deaths have been male even though both sexes having similar infection rates.

Reuters reporting half a billion people have had travel restrictions imposed on them, seen speculation that this since has increase to over 700 million since.

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-LOCKDOWN/0100B5EF3LJ/index.html

Ren:20 times more deadly than flu.
That statment is still pure unadulterated nonsense.


CDC.gov
Key Updates for Week 6, ending February 8, 2020
The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.8%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%.


~2% is not 20 times more than 6.8%

EMP, I don't understand why you are continually attacking fellow members.

Jeanette Isabelle

Hi

Jeanette Isabelle,
Do you believe covid-19 is 20 times more lethal than flu?
Do you believe covid-19 is 1000 times more lethal than flu?

I don't understand why you're not pointing out any errors in my logic or facts.
I don't understand why you're "slandering" a fellow member .

I'm not here to say who's correct or who isn't with the numbers. My concern is with what you said to Ren. Given that your post remains unedited, we can assume that the administration disagrees with my assessment.

Jeanette Isabelle

Just reported NYT numbers, as mainstream media finally realising it's more serious than the common flu.

Death rate varies over time. So both rates estimated at different times can be accurate.

In the beginning over 60% of infected patients were dying. Probably due to host of factors, such as unaware they're infected with something other than common flu, and the disease quickly killing people with compromised health. Also as people become aware of the disease they more likely to get checked out.

So would always expect the death rate to drop, it was just hard to see it fall to flu like rates.


Edit: Ah I see the problem, NYT have edited the article. Can't find the original version, but here is USA Today with the same claim.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/natio...vid/4792597002/


Edit2: Found an archive http://archive.is/r6gRV

"Coronavirus Live Updates: Disease Roughly 20 Times Deadlier Than Seasonal Flu
Official figures from China suggest that the disease caused by the coronavirus has a fatality rate of at least 2.3 percent. By contrast the flu’s fatality rate in the United States is 0.1 percent."

Worth to point out, the CDC info is for the U.S. The NYTIMES article is correct, the death rate for Coronavirus in China is much higher than the death rate for seasonal flu in the U.S. This is, in part, due to the much higher rates of cigarette smoking in China, and the Chinese Government's inability to address the issue.

Lets get more science

This is a link to data via Johns Hopkins. No hype.


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


HERE is a link to WHO's summary (no jokes please)

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Here is CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

An interesting link (not as trusted as WHO or CDC) is
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

This shows some statistics (again, take EVERYTHING with a grain of salt- the sample sizes and populations are still very limited)

The key questions long term:
How infectious? (still not clear)
How Lethal? (still not clear)


It is too early to get truly good data.

"It is too early to get truly good data."

We have a winner!!

Obviously, COVID-19 is to be avoided, if at all possible, but the same can be said of the more familiar influenza.

Basically, wash your hands....

Planning is good. Obsessing is bad. People worry about the wrong stuff all the time.

This virus has killed 2130. that sucks.

the FLU kills ~646,000 people per year, yet almost nobody is scared of the flu.


People are scared of sharks- they kill 38 people per year.

Car/road accidents kill 1.25 million per year worldwide. Few of us are scared to drive.

I like to plan for things I can control.

Love the sections on food to keep on hand, etc.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-one-sin...od=hp_lead_pos5

If you cannot get to it, use Google to search: How One Singapore Sales Conference Spread Coronavirus Around the World

Yeah, the other large group was due to a conference in Bavaria, Germany, though didn't spread as a far and wide, just related to one case in Spain.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/...vrsn=9a7406a4_4

Sobering.

This is an update from Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com regarding Covid-19. Coronavirus Cases Doubling Overnight In Many Countries - Peak Prosperity

Article in Fox News about coronavirus living on surfaces for 9 days. Couldn't quite make out if it was this new type too or just the older kinds.

Also killed by bleach, hydrogen peroxide.

For a coronavirus in general to survive for nine days on a surface would be pretty amazing and unusual, however I have not yet found any data or science saying that this figure is inaccurate for COVID-19.

This https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext seems to be the article Fox was reporting on.

Seems just pulling together previous research on other viruses.

Article on ArsTechnica- WHO thinks that based on the spread in several other countries that this disease will get loose somewhere, and that making plans to work from home and/or tele-school make sense.
No panic, just planning.

The number of cases in the US went up by 20 when the Cruise Ship people came home. There are no know agents, no ""patient-zero"" in the US at this time.

There are 57 known cases in the US. 0 deaths in the US.

The US has several advantages when it comes to this.
1) we are across an ocean. YEA!! no one is walking here!
2) US population maintains a high social distance. (unlike places like Japan, where people like to talk to each other 1 foot apart, WE Americans, like to be 3 or 4 feet apart. This reduces/slows spread.




https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/...evere-cdc-says/

I've read that there are no known infections from surfaces; the article claimed that as far as we know it's only been spread from person to person. This makes sense to me (as a layman!) for coronaviruses in general.

Seems Wuhan medical personnel using medical journals to get around censorship.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30065-6/fulltext

Pilgrims to Muslim Holy Sites Risk Spreading Coronavirus (search on google if you don't have a WSJ subscription)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pilgrims-to...=article_inline

Does anybody have a source for surgical masks or N95 masks? I can't find any at the local CVS or Walgreens. The Home Depot and Lowe's Hardware near me; are out of the N95 masks. Any alternative solutions? BTW I live in Hawaii.

OnedzGuy

They’re currently either unobtainable or hideously expensive on Amazon and eBay.

One time, as a child, I needed to go into a house with smoke damage. The smoke damage was affecting my breathing. Otherwise, it was safe to go in.

I made an improvised mask using Kleenex and tape. Apply the tape to all four sides to make a complete seal. In this situation, it worked. However, I can't make any claims on the effectiveness of the MacGyver mask in this situation.

Jeanette Isabelle

Going back years we’ve kept a stock of N-99 masks due to the smoke generated by the wildfires here. I’ve also had a few of the reusable (washable) masks that work quite well for smoke.

I have a few 27”x27” cotton bandanas. Bandanas have been mentioned in this forum on many occasions. They are useful if you have filter material to sandwich between the two layers when folded, but there’s still an issue of the mask fitting correctly. Smoke particles are one thing, COVID-19 aerosols are another matter entirely. The N95 Face Mask Activated Carbon Filter might work. (You need to cover your eyes too.)

Sorry for your situation in light of the COVID-19, but masks have been sold out of the brick&mortar stores for weeks and as stated Amazon is also pretty much out. Buying basic first aid and survival items is best done while the supplies are available, not after the crisis is well underway.

China has banned all exports of face masks too.

I have not noticed a great deal of 'panic' over the virus here at ETS - mostly good advice on hand washing, anti-viral products, etc. However for those here who need to reassure others this article may help.

5 Reasons to Stop Freaking Out About Coronavirus

Coronavirus is an “info-demic,” a panic caused by the spread of partial and often misleading information about a health risk, sometimes deliberately.

The virus is real, and a small number of people have been infected. But it is going to pass.

It is an unpleasant respiratory illness, but it is not an organ-destroying horror like Ebola. Precautions are being taken, a vaccine will emerge, and life will continue as usual.

Here are five specific reasons to chill out.

1. Coronavirus is a familiar illness, and not as bad as others. It is from the SARS family — and less deadly. As Ha’aretz noted, “the mortality rate from the current disease ranges from 0.5 to 2 percent, and is significantly lower than the mortality rate from the 2002 SARS outbreak (9.5 percent) and much lower than the 2012 SARS outbreak (34.4 percent). It may even be close to the mortality rate from an ordinary flu outbreak in the United States.”

2. The U.S. response has been exceptionally good. There have only been 16 cases thus far, none deadly. [I removed some political content here]

3. We are going to have a vaccine soon. There are private companies in the U.S. and around the world racing to develop a vaccine — not just because of the urgent public health need, but because whoever finds it first stands to make a lot of money. (This is where the profit motive, and the pharmaceutical industry, are so crucial [removed political content]

4. China is going to be all right. The number of cases in China sounds large — until you consider the size of China. True, the Chinese government has been duplicitous about coronavirus, as it is about everything. (Amartya Sen famously observed that India, unlike China, has never suffered famine because India has a free press.) And U.S. firms are learning a long-overdue lesson about the risks of investing there. But China will eventually pull through.

5. The same people who want you to panic about coronavirus want you to panic about everything. The news business thrives on chaos. [removed political content] Coronavirus is not a hoax, but pundits should be asked if they cared enough about flu — which kills far more people — to get their shot this year. If not, ignore them. Remember to wash your hands, and stay cool.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/02/28/pollak-5-reasons-to-stop-freaking-out-about-coronavirus/

Not sure there is a panic.

There are 62 patients in the US, though almost all have their infection traced back to source.

However there is a case in California where the point of infection hasn't been able to be identified. It suggests certainly more people with the virus walking around California at least.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/28/health/coronavirus-us-updates-california-patient/index.html

Here is a concise article which I find helpful for prevention:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsod...ing-coronavirus

Contained within the article is a link to a discussion of the efficacy and utility o face masks in different situations. Basically, wash your hands and be careful.

People are already in a panic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNsE5ban...dwxVbto8NdOnbXw

Jeanette Isabelle

One person, who didn't go to China nor had contact with a person who went to China, gets sick and this is how the nation responds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q_xpos5-XY

This would be funny if it weren't for the ripple effect.

Jeanette Isabelle

Old UK TV programme Dad's Army, for some light amusement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

PDF: Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19

Got our first official cases in Nebraska- Lady traveled from UK 10 days ago.

She of COURSE was at a Special Olympics event with hundred of people, sigh. She is at Hospital.


Fremont School District Shut down for the week.

Other districts still open. Most districts around here have spring break next week.

Our church sent a notice of no shaking hands during Mass.

No panic here yet. Traffic was light going to work, but we appear to have a full staff.

Last time I looked WA state had 103 cases and 16 deaths.

Probably because they aren't testing much, but the death rate would be about 15% if those stats stand.

Oops, new data
162 cases 22 deaths.
down to 13.5% death rate,

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-new...and-the-nation/

WA state is off the curve, but the US is trending about same as other countries at this time- 761 known cases, 27 deaths- 3.5%.

World as a whole 116,164 cases, 4088 deaths 3.5%

Risk groups staying consistent, older, and other health impaired.

Time to make sure anyone who works in nursing homes gets paid sick time....Don't want them coming in to work sick right now.....

FYI -- the New York Times has made the following page available to the general public (ie. anyone without a subscription)...

https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus

... which provides "free access to the most important news and useful guidance on the coronavirus ... The articles on this page are available if you have a New York Times account."

The Saudi gov had shut down the holy sites for a few days, dinsinfected everything, and then built a circular wall around the Kaabah ( the black cubic building in the center). This is importnat cuz every pilgrim tries to touch and kiss it. Now they can see it but not touch it. Moreover, Friday prayers have been suspended in all the country's mosques. Actually similar prayers suspension had taken place in neighboring countries like the UAE and Kuwait.

Lets' hope it helps.

I got a question folks.

In a few days , some workers are coming home to work (electric, plumbing ..etc.) They may use some of my tools and stuff ( ladder ..etc.) My question is : how many days should I leave the ladder out in the open (under the sun) before I am confident the virus have died.

I have read a few articles about Corona sticking to surfaces for 12-24 hours, and some said 9 days. Any definitive answers ??

Thanks

In some local discussion groups, some folks were upset about the continuous negative news. OTOH, some ppl showed a lot of irresposible behavior. Gov has stopped school and shifted to online education .. etc. Some folks took it as a vacation or holiday

Completely irresponsible. But I think enough condemnatioon were voiced that some has become wiser.

Question is , do you draw a line between continuos alarms to push irresponsible ppl to become wiser, or do you take the faint-hearted into consideration and stop it.

One doctor for example had warned youger ppl that if someone gets Corona, most younger healthier ppl will survive but the senior ones in their family won't make it. I fall in the 65-70 years category that he talked about. I for one processed the info rather logicall. A cousin of mine processed the info emotionally and freaked out. He asked us to stop the discussion.

Many places I've lived, leaving a ladder outside led to burglaries being committed with them. I don't know if your neck of the woods has that issue, but something to think about.

My best understanding as a non-scientist, non-medical professional, is that the COVID19 virus can live on surfaces up to three days in a lab environment. Out in full sun I'd be confident in one day -- the Sun's UV radiation kills viruses quickly. Out in steady rain I'd be confident in one hour.

If you can spare a disinfectant wipe or two, I'd probably wipe it down and put it away immediately. If you have an open bottle of bleach, use a capful of bleach in a cup of water, a paper towel and a kitchen glove, and wipe it down with that. Hot soapy water will work as well, but require more work. Remember, though, that bottles of bleach start turning into water once they're opened.

Thanks

Burglary is not an issue, and I don't like to use sanitizer on something that big. I will definitely miss a spot or two.

I just watched a YouTube vid, and the doctor says the virus is new, but guessing from other Coroniruses, he guess-timates a 9 day period.

Wow. That is serious

https://apnews.com/fe0239e95b8ad1037639ed833b990e48

Was the latest I've seen on surfaces

I am not sure it will:(

I have spent a lot of time in KSA consulting and managing airports and specifically in one of the two airports dedicated for the pilgrim operations. My last assignment ended last year so I am very fresh on the plans, procedures and policies etc. as well as the routine and the life of both locals and visitors over there. The closing of holly sites etc is just like closing two stations of NY subway and showing it on media. The real pilgrim season will begin by the end of July so it is more like touristic visits now (non mandatory). Pilgrim or not these people are mostly old people and the whole thing is very tiresome and already takes a big toll on their health even without a pandemic. The pilgrimage or these visits out of season are not individual travels. It is the worlds biggest mass transit operation concerning millions of people.

In Turkey until 2 days ago it was only 5 or 6 cases which were confirmed virus positive. Now a mass return of off season pilgrims from Saudia has started from their visit after the closures. It is already more than 20K people back to Turkey from KSA and they are being quarantined in mass in University Dormitories. Time will show if this will be effective.

I agree with you about the seriousness of the Hajj(pilgrimage) season (last days of July). But I was referring to the current situation these days.

As a muslim myself, I am worried actually about several other factors even for those who are not going to Hajj. One is the Eid ( celebration days after completion of Hajj or completing the fasting month of Ramadhan). All muslims will be celebrating in their own countries ( visits, free food for all ..etc. ) This worries me a great deal.

What will happen in the month of Ramadhan(24 April to 23 May) is also something to worry about. Even if we assume some successful control on Hajj (given its geographical and specific time considerations), Ramadhan is everywhere, in every city and village, all kinds of people , some of whom will never agree with any restrictions whatsover, and no gov can enforce. One example I am watching these days is severl ppl marching towards holy shrines in Iraq despite Fatwas (religious orders) and gov instructions to stay home. Now if the clergy themselves can't control such people, I really don't know what can. Defintely number of ppl marching will be less that the usual numbers every year, but you never know who spreads the virus.

Another example is "God's feasts" in Egypt during the fasting month of Ramadhan. Many many people establish free food tents or tables in the streets to feed the public. It is so popular culture that even some non Muslims offer these feasts. Same in India and Pakistan. I don't know if anyone can stop it.

I am just hoping people become wiser

Chisel,

We will never stop everyone, we will just do the best we can.

Every bit helps. One less infected person to spread things.

Is there a way to continue this tradition in such a way to reduce risks? Pre-packaged food, so less cross contamination?

Ask NOW, so it can get advertised and blessed NOW. Then you can honor the traditions, but reduce the risk.

Yes, pre-packaged foods are distributed too. Just an hour before sunset , volunteers stand at most traffic lights rushing to distribute these packages. But even the packages themselves can spread the disease. I think if the CV mess continues to Ramadhan, this kind of distribution will be banned by gov.

OK, let me share with you other news about people who trying to make a change.

# An Iraqi young man in his tailor shop, sees the severe shortage of face masks, so he starts sewing and freely distributing face masks made of cloth. I don't know how effective they are but the are definitely better than nothing, and they are washable and reusable.

# A teacher has a simple YouTube channel, sees the ban on schools and works day and night to produce more educational videos, and learns how to make them better quality.

# Several hotel owners in Iraq gave their hotels to gov to use as quaranteens.

The list goes on and on and on.
Great spirit for tough times.

As we've seen with TP hoarders and the dude that bought up 18,000 bottles of hand sanitizer, there are always going to be some bad apples that try to profit off of the misery of others. But I believe pretty strongly in the fundamental goodness of humanity. For every bad apple I've seen ten folks looking for ways to help.

Indeed, I consider that excessive purchasing of toilet paper, hand sanitiser, or anything else during an emergency is anti social as others are thereby deprived. I avoid doing this.

I have a large supply of toilet paper, and of many other commodities, but these were obtained years ago and simply provided a little welcome extra trade. I very much doubt that my historic bulk purchase deprived anyone else.

I had only very limited supplies of hand sanitiser, but did have large stocks of the ingredients to make my own.

We went to Costco this morning at 10:00 AM expecting a crowd, but we needed a few things (Not TP). The line to get in went almost entirely around the building!!!!!!! Costco was only letting in 10 at a time. People are nuts!

This too shall pass. Once this initial hoarding is over and people realize they don’t have storage space for additional 24/48 rolls of TP and their freezers are full of the frozen peas I couldn’t buy yesterday, things should return to normal.

I’ve been buying a little here, little there for weeks and then suddenly this past weekend the panic lightbulb turned on for so many people all at once — very annoying.

If I don't die of COVID-19 and have the opportunity to look back at this thread in a month or three, it may be that in hindsight my attitude was pollyannaish but I think the worst of the panic won't last long. That is unless, of course, the death toll surges exponentially. In in Bozeman we've had the standard run on TP, sanitizer and all the common military ammo calibers (eg 9mm and 5.56) but there's still food in the stores and people aren't acting completely insane. Hopefully that doesn't go out the window once we get our first confirmed case.