In ancient times the duty of a watchman was to send an alert as soon as he saw a potential threat, not wait until he is 100% certain that the danger is real.

We are not allowed to discuss politics, economics or religion. Therefore, I can't reveal my sources. Therefore, take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt.

There is the potential of economic turbulence this month, October, in the United States.

Mom and I are getting all of our preps, that we have not done yet, done. If there is any prep you have not done yet, now is the time to do it.

Return to your seats, ladies and gentlemen, the captain has turned on the fasten your seatbelt sign.

Jeanette Isabelle

Isn't "economic turbulence" always a possibility at some point in the future? That is why there are insurance policies, first aid kits, well stocked larders, and the many other hedges against calamity.

Sooner or later, something really bad will definitely happen...

I specifically mentioned this month, October.

Jeanette Isabelle

I have also read articles regarding the frailty of the global economy in general. One such article is: ”We Finally Understand How Destructive Negative Interest Rates Actually Are”. Negative interest rates are not an abstract, they’re real if you live in Europe. Interesting experiment, but if it fails the consequences for the global financial system are ginormous. That’s just one of my morning reads, and there are lots of them.

With the new fiscal year upon us there is always a greater chance that something critical will unravel, but we always seem to muddle through in spite of how messed up things seem to be. That said, one of these days the system could break. Not saying it will, not saying anyone has that intent, just saying a lot of what is going on in global finance makes no sense to this layman. I was born at night...

I try to finance my life without credit, but the other day I walked into a restaurant I’ve visited in the past, placed my order and ... “we no longer take cash”. I always have cash on hand simply because I don’t trust credit/debit cards to work during a large (undefined) event and cash normally works. But I was hungry and with a schedule to meet so out came the plastic. I won’t be eating there again. Too bad, they made one of the best burgers I’ve had...

Here’s another good read: ”Peter Schiff: The Party Is Over”

Granted there are ominous signs for the stock market, which is experiencing its longest expansion ever, something that will inevitably come to an end at some point in the future. But the stock market is not the economy.

I expect a recession, and I think it's almost inevitable. Hopefully though it won't be as bad as in 2008. Recessions are a regular feature of capitalism and usually aren't catastrophic.

If it were just a stock market correction, there would be no reason for me to say anything. The potential problem I believe is coming would be more significant.

I started this thread because what kind of friend would I be to this community if I saw a potential threat and said nothing?

As I said, if there is any prep that you have not done yet, do it now. Mom and I are doing the same.

Jeanette Isabelle

Is that how it is? I should not post anything until I have substantial evidence, which by then maybe too late?

Jeanette Isabelle

Moderators: We can't discuss politics, economics or religion in the forum. What if a person, such as myself, sees the potential of a threat developing but got it from a political, economic or religious source? Should such a person be allowed to warn their friends in this community to encourage them to take action or keep the information to themselves due to the source of information?

When I lived in Texas, we received tornado watches and warnings. A watch means the conditions are ideal for a tornado to form; a storm has not been spotted. During a watch, there is no need to seek shelter. The person, however, needs to be mindful that the conditions are ideal and keep a radio or TV on for updates. A warning means there is visual confirmation, seek shelter immediately.

When put in such terms, should a member be allowed to declare we are under a proverbial tornado watch, meaning the conditions are ideal for one to form, or don't say anything at all until there is visual confirmation?

Jeanette Isabelle

Nothing to do with religion or doomsday prophecies. I’ve been reading a lot of financial press which indicate that world debt is becoming too large to paper over. I keep hearing “watch the bond market” and there is “too much leverage” in the system.

Here’s just one article by David Stockman who was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (1981–1985) — it doesn’t mention politics or religion.

I’m not sure October 2019 is the month it explodes/implodes, but just by the super low interest rates, it’s evident that things are not right.

For us layman who just want to work, get a paycheck, buy gas and groceries, and otherwise think all is good and it will continue forever — news flash, something that cannot continue will eventually stop.

Perhaps it´s just me but it makes me extremly frustrated if there is no more info than just hints and innuendo and nothing substantial.
A bit like Sheldon in Big Bang Theory.

For this reason, I did not want to say anything other than the conditions are ideal for a storm to take place within a month, even when no one has spotted a storm at this time.

Jeanette Isabelle

The prophets are on Zero Hedge.

I've already answered that question.


If you need to be more specific, the following is a list of what I recommend.

• Make sure all vehicles are topped off with gas.
• If you don't have enough emergency cash at your disposal, withdraw some from your bank. Dollar amounts will vary from person to person.
• Make sure your panty is full, including paper and hygiene products.

In short, I would suggest you prep as if a hurricane is headed in your direction.

Jeanette Isabelle

Not really sure what sort of economic crisis we're talking about. Let see whether we can figure out Jeanette's emergency scenario if we all put our heads together.

Hurricane prep responds to a temporary interruption in food, supplies, & fuel.

Withdrawing emergency cash from the bank suggests that (1) the banking system and the American currency won't collapse, and (2) there will be no massive inflation, which will render cash useless. But somehow you can't use credit cards for a while.

I don't see preparation for sudden increase in interest rates on your loans or suddenly losing your house. I don't see calls for cashing in your stocks or retirement funds right away. So most of the system will be stable.

There will be no widespread unemployment. So there won't be a economic depression. So no need to prep your AR to fight off the masses of zombies looking for any kind of work, you guys.

One possibility is some sort of disturbance in the energy sector, making it impossible temporarily to ship goods. You may have to use cash to purchase goods from your neighbors, or you may have to drive to cities that are closer to the goods. Am I getting hot or cold?

This is a fun game! Maybe each month someone should post a fantasy scenario like Jeanette did, and we can figure out what's happening.

First, I believe Jeanette is sincere in her warning. So knock off the insults you guys.

Second, a warning without any hint at what the warning is about is not a very useful warning.

Third, if it is sincerely believed that something big is coming that would significantly hurt friends here on the forum, who cares about a few forum rules? If it's that bad, the forum won't be around afterwards.

Fourth, different people have different fears. For example, many people are terrified of the stock market crashing and wiping out their savings. The wife and I, we've been learning day trading, shorting, options, futures, etc. and are almost as prepared for that as we can be, and actually hope to make money when it happens (when, not if).

You're right. The problem exists on multiple fronts. Some of it is beyond my paygrade and, admittedly, may sound like tin foil hat conspiracy theories. I'm posting this one, not only because it is something I do comprehend; it also can be confirmed by recognized news sources.

The New York Federal Reserve is printing $75 Billion a day and is releasing it into the banking system because of the interest rates between banks have skyrocketed to 10%. The question is, why? What is happening in the banking system for them to have this cash flow problem? Banks are in trouble. The question is, which ones? If they know which banks are in trouble, people would be withdrawing their money out of those banks, money which these banks do not have. Banks can shut down. When banks shut down, what happens to your money?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news...19-9-1028541586

What I linked is just one source. Other articles can confirm this. I can post them if need be.

Jeanette Isabelle

A member of the forum, in a private message, sent me a link to this article on an inflationary depression.

Though it has nothing to do with the feds printing $75 Billion a day, it fits the bigger picture.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/an-inflationary-depression

Jeanette Isabelle

Sounds like basic economic bafflegab; maybe it's on the money (so to speak) and maybe its just more hot air adding to global warming.

Stay tuned....

As always, basic preps are a good idea, jor this possibility and well as many other potential earth shaking events (you can tell I have a SoCal perspective)

A few things were unclear to me; the meat of the article was very understandable.

Jeanette Isabelle

Thanks Jeanette. The article, An inflationary depression really is too much to take in all at once. I had to break it down into bite-size pieces and still don’t fully understand how it all unfolds. Like I said in an earlier post, imo it’s all an experiment.

You could probably teach a post-grad economics course based on this article. Lots of info, theory and statements that could be discussed and dissected at length. Regardless, the last three paragraphs wrap it up quite well:

If printing $75 Billion a day until October 10 was not bad enough, the New York Federal Reserve extended it to November 4.


https://news.yahoo.com/ny-fed-extend-ope...&soc_trk=fb

As part of my last-minute preps, I'm updating all of my medical and first aid kits.

Jeanette Isabelle

If we go back with our thoughts to 1999 and remember the worry about Y2K, it may help us to balance our thoughts and emotions.

In every culture there are 'signs' or 'prophecies' ..etc. and older people have seen some come and go without much materializing. So, I would say : we should keep prepping as we normally do. Not a bad idea to step up the pace if it makes us less stressed. But really, there is just not that much more any of us can do about a real-life big-bang type of SHTF.

Right on. I just read the attachment about preparing for a power outage in another thread, and I thought 'Those are measures I take routinely in normal conditions, somewhat prepped for whatever may occur." Keep plenty of batteries on hand, keep your phone charged, etc. i actually do just a wee bit more...