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#291877 - 03/09/19 03:25 AM Earthh Shaking News
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7066
Loc: southern Cal
A thoughtful and very detailed article from a credible source concerning the earthquake hazard in southern California:

http://temblor.net/earthquake-insights/earthquake-potential-of-los-angeles-8370/

The sedimentary basin in which I live is specifically mentioned as one that will receive prolonged shaking.....
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#292038 - 03/23/19 06:01 PM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: hikermor]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
Thanks for posting. Yes all the studies seem to indicate moderate risks. When I say moderate, I mean the chance of an earthquake above mag 7 is quite small.

I dont know what to make of it, really. It all depends on data sets. The scientists are using a limited data set where thry have good data. That makes sense, but it does not tell the whole story.

I went back and looked at all the LA quakes from the time they were first recorded by people. I came to the conclusion that we should see 2 quakes every 25 years, more or less. A smaller quake (mag 4-5) and a larger quake (mag 5-7). Of course, the pattern changes constantly. But the stats that I am quoting seem more frequent than what the recent published studies say. It is possible that the last century was a relatively quiet time of the Earth in the LA Basin. It has not always been that way. The last 20-25 years in LA have marked an unusual lull in activity. It wont last much longer.

I wish that we had the oral records of the California Indians, because they knew a greater history. Sadly, that knowledge was lost when their culture was destroyed. It is possible that the Indians knew something from their oral history that could really help us today.


Edited by Pete (03/23/19 06:11 PM)

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#292039 - 03/24/19 12:36 AM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7066
Loc: southern Cal
The Native American cultures here in SoCal took quite a hit, and were profoundly altered, but I don't think "destroyed" is quite apt(although close). I know many Chumash here locally, and their cultural ways are undergoing a rebirth.The story goes that the Northern Channel Islands were abandoned following the 1812 quake, although there were many other factors in play as well.

Today geologists can excavate fault zones, find evidence of past events and date them, along with some notion of their magnitude, so we do have some idea of past events.

The traditional Chumash explanation for quakes is that the two giant snakes holding up the earth shift and move about, causing the ground to shake....
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#292075 - 04/02/19 07:17 PM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
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Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5237
Loc: SOCAL
More Earth shaking news ... okay, not really. California’s in an exceptional earthquake drought. When will it end?
This is one of those questions that should maybe not be asked ‘cause you won’t like the answer. It may end in a swarm...

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#292083 - 04/03/19 01:08 PM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: hikermor]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7066
Loc: southern Cal
Same, practically speaking, as it has always been - at a time uncertain, anywhere from two minutes to two decades in the future. Just get ready, stand by, and hold onto your hat!!

I know and have worked with one of the scientists quoted in the article, Tom Rockwell, and i have the highest regard for his knowledge and capabilities.

Let's hope that the early warning system is ready before the next Big one....
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#292162 - 04/11/19 03:06 AM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5237
Loc: SOCAL
Mapping Armaggedon: Earth's looming tsunamis and mega-quakes

Quote:
...Alvaro Gonzalez, a researcher of the Center for Mathematical Research in Barcelona, Spain, found that so-called subduction zones -- parts of the Earth where one tectonic plate gets pushed deeper towards the mantle by another -- could trigger a 10.4 magnitude quake.

And they happen on average every 2,000 years. ...
... So when was the last one?
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Okay, what’s your point??

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#292163 - 04/11/19 04:43 AM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: hikermor]
Phaedrus Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 2436
Loc: Big Sky Country
I'll be the optimist and hold out hope that 1) science will improve in understanding to the point of better forecasting and 2) that improved engineering and materials science will better fortify structures against quakes.
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#292190 - 04/19/19 10:38 PM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: Phaedrus]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7066
Loc: southern Cal
Here is a bit of research that just might advance the ball a bit:

https://www.npr.org/2019/04/18/714621123...nia-study-finds

Lots and lots of very small earthquakes occuring all the time. Just the thought makes me tremble....

Apparently this may have some potential for EQ prediction.
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#292443 - 06/10/19 11:20 PM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5237
Loc: SOCAL
Just a little update on the EQ swarm in California.

Seismologist Warns "People Ought To Be Concerned" About SoCal Quake Swarm

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#292445 - 06/10/19 11:52 PM Re: Earthh Shaking News [Re: Russ]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7066
Loc: southern Cal
Bottom line is that if you live in earthquake country you should be ready for an earthquake at any time, because they are essentially unpredictable. I try to keep at least a half tank of gas in my vehicle, and keep a stock of survival supplies therein.

I keep my camping gear handy and organized because I will probably stay home since it may not be possible or feasible to leave. I have a stockpile of of potable water and food sufficient for about a month.

When the Big One happens, we will assess the situation and decide on a course of action.
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