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#286303 - 09/18/17 02:36 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: hikermor]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC
Originally Posted By: hikermor
Question about accidents and fatalities suffered during the evacuation. I haven't seen any figures and my impression is that things went better than the infamous Houston evac. This is certainly good news, if true...Did we learn any lessons about conducting major evacuations?


No doubt the state government will be analyzing the evacuation efforts along with how stricter building codes since 1992's Andrew helped buildings withstand Irma.

Anecdotedly, I haven't seen any news reports throughout that the Florida evacuation bore any resemblance to the Houston-Rita fiasco of 2005. I recall that 100 people died during the 2005 Houston evac. Don't know if anyone died evacuating in Florida. The biggest wrinkle in the Florida evac seems to have been gasoline supplies, despite valiant efforts to keep service stations supplied. Those news reports of gas shortages were a deterrent to others evacuating after Irma shifted west.

As my brother was deliberating whether to evacuate, we both observed that Florida's population growth has exponentially outpaced the building of roads upon which they could be evacuated in emergencies. There are two north-south Interstates in Florida: I-75 and I-95. Both were in the original Interstate Highway plans developed in 1955. In 1960, when the first miles of I-75 and I-95 were being opened, Florida's population was less than 5 million people. Today, 21 million people live in Florida. Florida's infrastructure hasn't kept up with population growth. Probably hasn't in any of the fifty states.

Former Governor Jeb Bush noted during interviews before Irma hit that they had learned during his tenure that a full statewide evacuation simply is not possible. Even if you got them out, where is everyone going to go? So his administration stepped up emphasis on having adequate local shelter options. Obviously, more needs to be done on that front. Naples, for one, ran out of shelter space.

Where Governor Rick Scott's evacuation pleas probably made the most difference in lives saved is in the Florida Keys. They issued a mandatory evacuation of the Keys beginning 7:00a Wednesday for tourists and 7:00p Wednesday for residents. Irma made landfall Sunday morning.

The scary images of Hurricane Harvey's aftermath the previous week also no doubt had made an impression on people so that the Irma warnings were taken more seriously.

I was having a conversation about this with someone and they suggested that in the future the state should have tanker trucks distributing gas directly to motorists on evacuation routes -- going the direction they need to be evacuating in. Paid for, of course.

Seems to me a good idea.



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#286306 - 09/18/17 03:27 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: Dagny]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC

The Washington Post's "Capital Weather Gang" are a fantastic source of information in any major weather event. I was regularly sending their Irma forecasts to my brother.

Here's a link to their summary page on Irma, replete with her entire track, extent of hurricane and tropical force winds and tracks of other major hurricanes. Really interesting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/hurricane-irma/?utm_term=.42ce5fff9917


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#286307 - 09/18/17 03:31 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: Dagny]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC
Images from the Post article above.


Attachments
IMG_1286.PNG

IMG_1287.PNG (210 downloads)


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#286308 - 09/18/17 05:53 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: hikermor]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC
Originally Posted By: hikermor
Question about accidents and fatalities suffered during the evacuation. I haven't seen any figures and my impression is that things went better than the infamous Houston evac. This is certainly good news, if true...Did we learn any lessons about conducting major evacuations?



Hikermor -- found an article in the Miami Herald which is on point:


http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article173494726.html



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#286309 - 09/18/17 06:15 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: Dagny]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2818
Loc: La-USA
It appears to me that no matter where I go, the road infrastructure is always 30 years behind the current local population.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#286311 - 09/18/17 09:30 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: Dagny]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7198
Loc: southern Cal
Thanks,Dagny. Very pertinent discussion. So much depends upon intelligent, forward looking infrastructure development....
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#286318 - 09/19/17 03:52 AM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: Dagny]
bigmbogo Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 02/11/05
Posts: 82
I seem to remember a discussion here a few years ago, after Katrina, I think, about evacuation timing strategy. The poster had some intelligent sounding advice on when to bug out to avoid the huge traffic jams. IIRC, he believed that not leaving immediately, but instead waiting until the storm was a lot closer, worked a lot better, with far fewer cars on the road.

Any thoughts?

David

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#286321 - 09/19/17 05:21 AM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: Dagny]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2818
Loc: La-USA
I used that tactic years ago when a hurricane was inbound to Slidell, La.

The I-10 & I-59 were both grid locked with the coastal residents who had been told to evacuate. We waited until the following morning @ the Storm winds were still 12hrs away but the Interstates were completely clear in both directions.

If you can't leave before the herd, let the herd pass and then follow.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#286362 - 09/21/17 12:47 PM Re: A View from Naples (Hurricane Irma) [Re: wildman800]
bigmbogo Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 02/11/05
Posts: 82
That's very interesting, Wildman. It was probably your comments I was remembering.

It seems like it would take nerves of steel to be patient and get the timing just right. My natural assumption would be that the highways would get more clogged as the storm got closer, due to a lot of people procrastinating, but your experience says otherwise.

Thanks for sharing.

David

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