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#286021 - 09/10/17 05:13 AM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1353
Russ

thanks. The Weather Underground had a very nice article.
Before going to bed, I took another look directly at the latest GOES satellite images. Yes, Irma is slowing down, now moving at 6 mph. And that could be a prelude to a change in direction. But it is "swinging very wide" to the west ... it did not make the sudden northwards turn that the computer gurus were expecting. It looks more like Irma will swing in an arc, going into the Gulf of Mexico - and then possibly heading back on a collision course with western Florida. The Florida keys will take a beating. And Tampa Bay shouldn't be breathing any sighs of relief ... not yet.

Definitely Cuba and The Keys will be hammered.

It looks like there will be some computer gurus in metereology - all the grad students working on their PhD's - who will be spending tonight drinking coffee ... and wondering why their predicted ground track went off course. Their predictions across the Virgin Is, Puerto Rico and the approach to Cuba were very good. Something went wrong when Irma was beside Cuba.


Edited by Pete (09/10/17 05:14 AM)

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#286022 - 09/10/17 06:36 AM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Pete]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1116
Loc: Alaska
Pete, for some insight on the computer models used for predicting Irma's path, take a look at Cliff Mass's blog post from Thursday. Cliff Mass is a professor of meteorology at UDub in Seattle. He usually focuses on Pacific NW weather, but is an expert on these big scale models. He has pointed out in other posts that these models require truly massive computing power.
American Versus European Models and Irma's Big Turn
Quote:
But why the sudden turn?
Because of the passage of an upper-level trough to the north, with Irma starting to feel the steering effects of the westerly flow of the midlatitudes. The forecast 500 hPa chart (around 18,000 ft) with heights and winds illustrate the predicted environment as the hurricane approaches Florida.
The trouble with such tropical-midlatitude interactions as hurricanes move north is that such situations can produce a lot of uncertainty, something suggested by the ensembles. It is sort of like jumping on to a rapidly moving merry-go-round. You know generally where you are going once you get on, but you are not sure which horse you will end up on. A very challenging forecast. But with a storm this large and powerful, anywhere in southern Florida will have serious impacts.

Today (Saturday) he posted an update: Hurricane Irma Takes a Western Route Northward
Quote:
As I noted in my last blog, this is a VERY hard forecast, with the storm predicted to make a sharp right turn near a relatively narrow peninsula. Small errors in position and time of the turn have HUGE implications for the forecasts. The storm has also weakened substantially (now a category 3), with the latest model runs suggesting some intensification (perhaps to a cat 4, but NOT a cat 5).

It will be interesting to see his analysis after this event.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#286024 - 09/10/17 11:23 AM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Bingley]
Jeanette_Isabelle Online   content
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1882
Loc: Emerald City, OZ
Originally Posted By: Bingley
Can you guys stay in touch with ETS in case of power outage?

I don't know how. I have a regular cell phone, not a smart phone.

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
"Hello? Cobra Bubbles? Aliens are attacking my house." -- Lilo Pelekai, Lilo and Stitch

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#286025 - 09/10/17 12:17 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1353
It looks like the storm has turned northwest. It will absolutely ravage the Florida Keys. I can hardly believe that there are a lot of people - including older people - who decided to shelter at Key West. I hope that their building is OK. Who on Earth would decide to stay in that place ... what were they thinking??

Irma will be over warmer Gulf of Mexico waters - which will allow it to strengthen again. This is super BAD news for Tampa Bay, and all the towns on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The most recent path is highly destructive for low-lying areas of Naples and Fort Myers.

AKSAR - big thanks. I will take a look at those Web pages. It seems like Irma is such a big storm, that the computer models are not capturing its true inertia (i.e. its momentum and its angular momentum). It is just not possible for an enormous hurricane to "turn on a dime" - which is what the original models predicted. But I think your point is absolutely correct - they would have to run enormous computer models to capture the whole weather system.

There is a very good argument that NOAA needs better and bigger supercomputers.

UPDATE NEWS / Sunday 10 Sep
A very dangerous day is unfolding in the Florida Keys and much of West Florida,” Michael Brennan, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said in an early morning update Sunday. “It certainly could inundate the entire island. That’s why everyone in the Keys was urged so strongly to evacuate.”


Edited by Pete (09/10/17 03:40 PM)

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#286026 - 09/10/17 01:22 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 2958
Loc: USA
I've PM'd Jeanette_Isabelle. Anyone else who is in the storm zone may PM me for my mobile number. Keep in mind this is intended to stay in touch with ETS and not for any emergency assistance.


Edited by chaosmagnet (09/10/17 01:24 PM)
Edit Reason: typo

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#286031 - 09/10/17 03:55 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: chaosmagnet]
Russ Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 4934
Loc: SOCAL
Google "Hurricane Irma Crisis Map" and you'll find:
Google's Crisis Map centered on Irma
And,
Real-time Florida Road Closures which uses Google-Maps on your smartphone.

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#286032 - 09/10/17 04:06 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1353
amazingly - a couple of live webcams are STILL working.

go to ... https://www.mybeachcams.com/florida/miami/

choose the 'Port Of Miami Live Webcam'

and you can see what a hurricane looks like. You have to click on the black box in the center of the computer screen (with the words 'Welcome To Port Miami Webcam') - to activate the livestream camera.

Conditions are pretty rough there.

Keep in mind - these links get flooded with viewers after we publish them. so you might want to return later, if it's busy.


Edited by Pete (09/10/17 04:17 PM)

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#286034 - 09/10/17 04:44 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1353
high tides on the Gulf Coast - these times for Fort Myers today

early high tide - 6:42 am
late high tide - 7:57 pm

Fort Myers already had its high-risk time (storm surge) early this morning. But Irma will be arriving near Tampa Bay this evening, during the late high tide.

MEANWHILE A LIVE QUOTE
from a person who stayed at Key Largo. It's hard to believe that people do stuff like this ...

John Huston, who was riding out the storm at his Key Largo home, was already seeing flooding in his yard before the arrival of high tide. "Small boats floating down the street next to furniture and refrigerators. Very noisy," he said by text message. "Shingles are coming off."


Edited by Pete (09/10/17 04:46 PM)

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#286036 - 09/10/17 05:44 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6612
Loc: southern Cal
Thanks for pointing out the crisis map. Moving it around a bit, I note that LA and Ventura counties are under a flash flood advisory for later today. Will the fun ever stop?
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#286047 - 09/10/17 07:33 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Jeanette_Isabelle Online   content
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1882
Loc: Emerald City, OZ
It's been raining all day. Earlier the wind was howling but has slowed down. We have a few branches down.

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
"Hello? Cobra Bubbles? Aliens are attacking my house." -- Lilo Pelekai, Lilo and Stitch

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