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#286046 - 09/10/17 07:11 PM Lessons from these hurricanes?
TeacherRO Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2175
What lessons are we learning from these two massive events?

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#286049 - 09/10/17 07:42 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 1913
Loc: Colorado
I am having more questions than "lessons learned" so far.

Like:

Why would people rush out to stand in lines to buy all this bottled water? Don't they have tap water that they could fill their own containers?

Hurricanes don't appear out of nowhere, unannounced. Why the last minute runs to fill your car tank with gas? Why no storage of extra gasoline at home as a routine matter?

Why the runs on plywood? I would think you'd want that stuff all cut and ready to go well in advance. I can't imagine older people (like me!) running out there to handle and cut large heavy sheets of plywood at the last minute, giving you no breaks to rest yourself.

Why not buy your generator in the off season at regular price to avoid the availability and price gouging issues that inevitably result when a hurricane is immediately incoming?

Why wait until the last minute to evacuate and then get stuck in massive traffic, passing by gas stations with mile long lines (if they even have any gas to sell at all)?

Don't they make decorative storm shutters that you could have on your house year round, and then just close and secure them at hurricane time?

Do they make in-home fold up scaffolding so that you could raise your expensive home items higher up inside your house to get above the flood water level? (wouldn't work with something like a 15 foot storm surge, but would be better than nothing for smaller surges)

Does property on higher ground cost prohibitively more than property on lower ground? If you want beach front property, why not build your house on stilts? Is this prohibitively expensive?

Are those houses that can float up (on pontoons attached to ground piers with chains/cables) and then settle back down onto their original piers science fiction only, or are they available now?

Do they make houses out of concrete/cinder block so they can sustain the winds better than wood construction?

Did you really "think through" your home purchase if it's below sea level, supposedly "protected" behind a levee? Why would anyone build, or willingly buy, a house in such an area?

Those air boats that they use in swamps look awesome for too-late evacuations and rescue. I would want one of those in my garage. Does Home Depot carry them?

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#286053 - 09/10/17 07:58 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
Assess your environment and develop a disaster profile that fits your circumstances. Plan in advance for mitigating those disasters/unfortunate events. Gather needed supplies/training/capabilities etc. in advance.

Pay attention to the news and weather reports. In the case of foreseeable disasters like hurricanes, follow Wildman 800's example and define actions to take as the event looms larger.

Get ahead of the crowd. If evacuation is desirable, leave early, with enough stuff. Do not be part of the herd searching for bottled water at the last minute. Fill your containers with good old tap water - it is very often the exact same thing.

Take good care of your dwelling and be sure it is up to code or better and reasonably built to withstand relevant hazards.

Don't live in Texas (but I knew that already). update: Don't live in the big cities in east Texas. West Texas is OK



Edited by hikermor (09/10/17 09:04 PM)
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#286054 - 09/10/17 07:58 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: haertig]
Bingley Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 02/27/08
Posts: 1277
Interesting list of questions!

I don't live in a place that permits the storage of gasoline. I'd imagine many renters and condo owners are in a similar situation.

Watching the Florida evacuation does make me wonder what I'll do for gas if I find myself running away from a hurricane. Traffic is going to slow down to a crawl, and your car will idle a lot, eating up gas without getting you nearer to the destination. An 8-hour drive might turn into a 16-hour drive, with no way of getting gas. Let's assume that I can find all the gas I want near home. Carrying 10-15 gallons of gas in the trunk seems like a bad idea. What would you do?

The air boat doesn't look too hard to build yourself. In fact, if you google a bit, there are some DIY air boats, but I don't know how practical they'd be. The parts do look like they come from the Home Depot.

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#286055 - 09/10/17 07:59 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: haertig]
Jeanette_Isabelle Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1557
Loc: North Central Florida
Originally Posted By: haertig
Don't they make decorative storm shutters that you could have on your house year round, and then just close and secure them at hurricane time?

I have seen them but it's rare.

Originally Posted By: haertig
If you want beach front property, why not build your house on stilts? Is this prohibitively expensive?

A lot but not all houses near the ocean are on stilts.

Originally Posted By: haertig
Do they make houses out of concrete/cinder block so they can sustain the winds better than wood construction?

Yes. I live in a cinderblock house.

Originally Posted By: haertig
Those air boats that they use in swamps look awesome for too-late evacuations and rescue. I would want one of those in my garage. Does Home Depot carry them?

I have not seen them in stores.

Jeanette Isabelle
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"A grain of wheat must fall to the ground before it can do any good. New life springs from fallen grain." -- Fleda Claes Johansson

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#286057 - 09/10/17 08:08 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 1913
Loc: Colorado
Another question I didn't think about having been more focused on the southern USA currently in the middle of a disaster...

Who would have ever thought that pushing garbage out to sea so that eventually it built up over the water line,and then BUILDING on top of it would be a good idea? (Manhattan, New York)

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#286058 - 09/10/17 08:10 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 1913
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Jeanette_Isabelle
Originally Posted By: haertig
Do they make houses out of concrete/cinder block so they can sustain the winds better than wood construction?

Yes. I live in a cinderblock house.

Good for you!

And I'm glad to see that you're still able to post here during the hurricane. Hang in there. Be safe.

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#286059 - 09/10/17 08:26 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: haertig]
bws48 Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/18/07
Posts: 812
Loc: Anne Arundel County, Maryland
Originally Posted By: haertig

Are those houses that can float up (on pontoons attached to ground piers with chains/cables) and then settle back down onto their original piers science fiction only, or are they available now?


They do exist and are in use in the Netherlands:
http://www.urbangreenbluegrids.com/projects/amphibious-homes-maasbommel-the-netherlands/
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#286060 - 09/10/17 08:47 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: haertig]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
Originally Posted By: haertig


Who would have ever thought that pushing garbage out to sea so that eventually it built up over the water line,and then BUILDING on top of it would be a good idea? (Manhattan, New York)


It happens on the left coast as well - remember the Marina district (San Francisco) during the 1989 Loma Prieta quake? It is a wonderful(i.e. profitable) idea if you are the developer.....
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#286064 - 09/10/17 09:50 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
Pete Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1307
Some lessons I noticed ...

* Evacuate Early. If you are at home and you're still listening to the Governor's Final Warning on TV ... you should have left days ago.

* Don't drive into deep water. Many cars & vans have all-electric features ... windows .. door locks. When these are disabled by deep water, the vehicle becomes a death trap.

* If you know a disaster is approaching - a few days ahead - keep your gas tank full.

* Keep some empty Coke bottles (large plastic) in the garage or closet. In an emergency, fill them with tap water. Why buy at the supermarket??

* If you wait to evacuate until you are DEAD SURE there is trouble, you could surely be dead. There will always be major uncertainty before every big emergency.

* Have some pre-cut plywood for your windows. Doors too, if necessary.

* If flooding is a risk, keep some sheets of plywood in your garage and some cinderblocks (cement). Pile the blocks on top of each other and build some makeshift shelves above floor level. Place all personal stuff there (that won't go in your car).

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#286066 - 09/10/17 10:02 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
bacpacjac Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/05/07
Posts: 3556
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Smug me says: The best lesson so far is that I'm glad that I live where I do. By accident of birth, and enforced by economics, this is where we live. A bug out would be a financial challenge. Environmental threats are limited, here, to snow and ice but I suspect that flooding is going to be a new age thing.

ETS me says: Holy capoli!! Move! But realistic me knows that that is easier said that done.

Be safe, my friends!
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#286069 - 09/10/17 10:22 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: Bingley]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
"Watching the Florida evacuation does make me wonder what I'll do for gas if I find myself running away from a hurricane. Traffic is going to slow down to a crawl, and your car will idle a lot, eating up gas without getting you nearer to the destination. An 8-hour drive might turn into a 16-hour drive, with no way of getting gas. Let's assume that I can find all the gas I want near home. Carrying 10-15 gallons of gas in the trunk seems like a bad idea. What would you do?" -from Bingley

Drive a Prius or similar hybrid. When moving very slowly or stopped, the gas engine is not running - perfect for our crowded California freeways. The pics of I95 look like any rush hour parking lot here in SoCal....
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#286070 - 09/10/17 10:25 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
CANOEDOGS Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/03/07
Posts: 1815
Loc: MINNESOTA
like Jac my threat would be a major winter storm,an ice storm would be even worse as the power lines would be down.
i have a few things like a kerosene heater and camping gear to wait it out.
I don't think most people have the room to store precut plywood over the years between storms and maybe down there it would rot if left outside.
I had a look at Google Earth to see what the area around Miami looked like and I was shocked at the huge developments of smaller one story homes.i can see why the shelters filled up.

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#286072 - 09/10/17 10:49 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
LesSnyder Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1454
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
a small but quality highway rated open utility trailer would be my choice... I wish I had spent a couple hundred more for the wooden floor model...a hitch on my lawnmower made transporting the pre cut plywood and ladder easier to transport to the windows...a hitch carrier could also be used

select the same size gasoline containers, as it makes them easier to secure with a tie down strap... much larger than 5gal is awkward to handle

the plywood cut, painted, and numbered for the 2004 season was a lot easier to put up at 58, than at a month shy of 70....have a good quality drill/driver with a spare battery... torx or square head screws if you attach to frame

I may convert my non used 5cu ft. freezer to store and and on demand freeze gallon containers of water for my extended coolers..

don't overlook the need for extra 5 gal buckets with lids

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#286075 - 09/11/17 12:50 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: Bingley]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1024
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: Bingley
Carrying 10-15 gallons of gas in the trunk seems like a bad idea. What would you do?

I wouldn't routinely carry gas in the trunk. However, if a hurricane was bearing down with an uncertain trajectory and evacuation in the next few days was a distinct possibility, I wouldn't have a problem with temporarily putting some extra gas in the trunk. Assuming of course that I had it in suitable containers.

It is all about balancing risks. I routinely drive around with 10-15 gallons of gas in the tank, which is under the car right below the trunk. There is some small additional risk of having some in plastic jerry cans in the trunk. Balanced against that is the risk that I might really need that gas if I had to get out of Dodge ahead of a storm. When and if the threat of evacuation passed, I would of course empty the jerry cans into the tank as soon as practical.

How one assesses the relative risk of carrying extra gas vs running out during an emergency is of course a personal decision.
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"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#286078 - 09/11/17 02:30 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
Pete Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1307
Gasoline requires some care.

There was a person recently carrying gasoline in a plastic container inside their vehicle. the gas ignited because of an electrical spark ... the container was not grounded. the interior of the car turned into a blazing inferno. the person was killed because their lungs were scorched.

I admit that scenario is very uncommon. but it did hapoen.

I always carry gas containers on an exterior rack. But the suggestion of a small high quality traler is a SUPER GOOD idea.


Edited by Pete (09/11/17 02:31 AM)

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#286079 - 09/11/17 03:33 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: Pete]
Teslinhiker Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/14/09
Posts: 1308
Originally Posted By: Pete
Gasoline requires some care.

There was a person recently carrying gasoline in a plastic container inside their vehicle. the gas ignited because of an electrical spark ... the container was not grounded. the interior of the car turned into a blazing inferno. the person was killed because their lungs were scorched.

I admit that scenario is very uncommon. but it did hapoen.
I always carry gas containers on an exterior rack. But the suggestion of a small high quality traler is a SUPER GOOD idea.



Do you have a link for the vehicle fire because of the jerry can?

An external rack will work, but I would not use a hitch mounted type as all you need is someone to rear end your vehicle and hitch rack that may have 10 or 20 gallons of gas strapped in.

Instead, a roof mounted carrier basket rack is better. These racks are easily mounted and removed by most and can be had for a decent price on Amazon.
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Earth and sky, woods and fields, lakes and rivers, the mountain and the sea, are excellent schoolmasters, and teach some of us more than we can ever learn from books.

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#286094 - 09/11/17 03:26 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
Pete Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1307
teslinhiker

I did a search and I cannot find that article. One thing that is very frustrating about the Internet ... articles that you read 5-6 years ago are almost impossible to find now.

There are quite a few incidents reported where people ignited gasoline inside their cars - mostly caused by people smoking cigarettes while they were driving. That risk is understandable.

There were a couple of incidents where it appears that a gasoline container leaked ... there was a hairline crack in the plastic, or the top was not completely sealed. Any time that you have gasoline fumes "exposed" inside the vehicle ... it is highly risky.

I have done this myself. It was foolish, but I didn't think through the risks. In the old days, when I was driving in Africa, I had to carry a couple of jerry cans with gasoline inside the 4x4. It was necessary, there were no more gas stations. But jerry cans often don't have lids that make a perfect seal - especially those you buy from stores in Africa. And since the roads are bumpy, pretty soon you have gasoline leaking down the outside of the jerry can, and the whole car smells like gas fumes. But that is extremely risky ... any spark or cigarette will turn the vehicle into an inferno.

Later on, I started transporting these jerry cans on roof racks.


Edited by Pete (09/11/17 04:15 PM)

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#286098 - 09/11/17 04:32 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: Pete]
Russ Online   content
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 4553
Loc: SOCAL
I drive a truck and when I carry spare gas the containers are in the bed under the tonneau cover. I've never had leaks, but there are no electrical outlets or other sources of ignition (that I know of).

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#286102 - 09/11/17 07:06 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
A second gas tank may be better solution. I once had a pickup truck, otherwise a POS, that did have that very worthwhile feature. Good thing, since it only got 10 mpg on a really good day....
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#286103 - 09/11/17 07:36 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: hikermor]
Russ Online   content
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 4553
Loc: SOCAL
My previous truck was a Ford F250, 40 gallons of fuel split between two tanks -- 10 mpg. I had considered replacing the big V-8 with Ford's inline 6. Went with a smaller truck and 22 mpg, which was a better option. As said in my previous post, I can always carry additional fuel.

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#286106 - 09/11/17 08:18 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: Russ]
adam2 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 386
Loc: Somerset UK
If replacing a vehicle it might be worth considering diesel rather than gasoline.
Running costs are often less, but as important is the fact that diesel fuel is very much safer to store and transport.
And mileage is often better.
Most diesel engines will in an emergency burn heating oil or cooking oil.

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#286107 - 09/11/17 08:30 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
chaosmagnet Online   content
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 2762
Loc: USA
On the other hand, not all gas stations have diesel. If diesel isn't commonly available where you live it's something to keep in mind.

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#286110 - 09/11/17 08:44 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
Phaedrus Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 1983
Loc: Great Plains
That's a big concern I have about diesel. Many diesel vehicles get great fuel economy but where I live I do notice some long stretches where no stations have diesel fuel.
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#286112 - 09/11/17 09:29 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
Pete Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1307
Two gas tanks would be great. But for me ... what I need is a roof rack. I will add that to the list of things that I am building during the next 2 months. These days I try to build everything that I need. I had a roof rack for my old vehicle, but not the for new one.

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#286115 - 09/11/17 11:15 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 788
Loc: wellington, fl
I learned that if the governor warns of disaster early enough, in this case about eight days, he can precipitate the panic of the unprepared immediately, causing a run on gas stations and food stores...and that the logistics system can respond, resulting in restocking of gas and bottled water by Wednesday. This was the largest storm in the history of weather casting, and the most effectively commercially exploited in the history of marketing.

There is absolutely no way to devise an explanation satisfactory to a member of this forum of the behavior of people not members of this forum. Explain music to the deaf, rainbows to the blind, women to men, maybe: preppers to non-preppers, unthinkable.

Ditto bottled water. How were inhabitants of a country with the cleanest, cheapest water in the history of the planet convinced that they need to pay for bottled water in the first place. And to pay more, volume for volume, than they pay for gasoline? This is a marketing triumph that dwarfs the Hula Hoop. None of the communities in this area lost water service, and the community I inhabit has never lost it. I drink tap water, and store water in garbage pails lined with plastic bags.

I would not have to store gasoline if I did not wish to run my freezers. I cold easily store canned and dried food, eliminating that need, but then I would be drinking warm champagne (shudder). An investment in batteries and solar chargers might eliminate that need. I bought a generator five years ago because I like having a generator, jerry cans, and a shed for storage cuz the CFO said I could. Do I need it? Am I victim of marketing?

The barrier islands are filled with un-insurable mansions that are uninhabited most of the time. People will live near the sea, no matter how bad a choice it is.
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Dance like you have never been hurt, work like no one is watching,love like you don't need the money.

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#286118 - 09/12/17 12:38 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
LesSnyder Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1454
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
running on the alternator genset...a hitch ball on a large mower allows you to tow a utility trailer...I put an older Honda 3500w unit on the trailer and ferry it between neighbors with freezers and no power...tried cooking canned food with water bath in a small sauce pan... was trying to not burn the food as I tend to do trying to cook directly in the can... worked well with a single burner propane stove.. ate out of the can, and kept it in the water bath to keep it warm...we have water but no hot water...I'm getting too old for this stuff... regards

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#286119 - 09/12/17 12:57 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 788
Loc: wellington, fl
If you like canned soup, non concentrate progresso...

Take an empty vienna sausage can, and use a paper punch to cut 8-10 holes in the can below the rim. Place VS can on top of a tuna can lid, and clumsily pour 30 cc of methanol into the VS can: clumsily because some needs to land outside the can on the tuna lid. Put an opened can of progresso on top and set fire to the meths. Step back smartly, if you value your eyebrows. by the time your backpacker alcohol stove uses up its fuel charge, the soup will be pleasantly hot and not scorched.

elegant stove designs here

I favor Italian wedding soup, altho pot roast ain't bad. This was lunch for me and my dog at the warehouse for 5 years.
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#286120 - 09/12/17 01:01 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: nursemike]
Montanero Online   content
Old Hand

Registered: 10/14/08
Posts: 1115
Loc: North Carolina
It is explainable, scientifically, but hard to understand for someone who understands the ways and means of preparation.

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#286123 - 09/12/17 01:06 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
Jeanette_Isabelle Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1557
Loc: North Central Florida
As mentioned, I experienced a major anxiety attack during the heavy winds. I don't know what I could have done differently.

I have a problem that causes my throat to tighten. In most scenarios, the most I need is intravenous therapy.

What had set me off is knowing in the unlikely event I have a problem with my throat during the hurricane, I have no access to medical services.

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
"A grain of wheat must fall to the ground before it can do any good. New life springs from fallen grain." -- Fleda Claes Johansson

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#286124 - 09/12/17 01:10 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 788
Loc: wellington, fl
we also learned that the weather weenies need to alter their computer graphics. As the science has improved, the cone of uncertainty and spaghetti maps have gotten narrower, while the hurricanes have gotten wider. The narrow projected paths convinced east coast floridians that they could safely evacuate to Tampa; they then found themselves back in the crosshairs. If the cone of uncertainty was the width of the storm instead of the location of the eye, it would have have been apparent that the entire peninsula would be involved, whatever path the eye took.

Which also explains the skepticism shown by some to evacuation orders, as they see the places they have evacuated to damaged more than the places they were directed by experts to evacuate from.

Leading to the next lesson: if evacuating, go big or stay home. If I choose to evacuate southeast Florida, my destination will be North Carolina, not Tampa.
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#286154 - 09/12/17 05:22 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2175
foe me its gas- fill up early and keep extra on hand.
10-25 gals stored in the pre season would have been very helpful.

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#286157 - 09/12/17 07:14 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
LesSnyder Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1454
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
I'm currently running on a generator, power is still out... I use a squeeze ball prime siphon system to power my generator...a 5gal or larger fuel can sits bungeed to the plywood cover of my generator, that way you don't have to hot fuel the engine, and can use any available size container... as I'm rotating between 3 users, each can supply their own fuel... again a hitch ball on a riding mower and small utility trailer made clean up much easier, and easily carries the genset...


Edited by LesSnyder (09/12/17 07:15 PM)

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#286158 - 09/12/17 07:20 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
I will be very interested in your comments after the dust has settled (better metaphor-after the mud has dried?) and what you might consider doing differently the next time...
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Geezer in Chief

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#286160 - 09/12/17 07:43 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: nursemike]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1024
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: nursemike
we also learned that the weather weenies need to alter their computer graphics. As the science has improved, the cone of uncertainty and spaghetti maps have gotten narrower, while the hurricanes have gotten wider. The narrow projected paths convinced east coast floridians that they could safely evacuate to Tampa; they then found themselves back in the crosshairs. If the cone of uncertainty was the width of the storm instead of the location of the eye, it would have have been apparent that the entire peninsula would be involved, whatever path the eye took.
I thought the graphics were pretty good, at least the ones I saw. NYT maps clearly showed previous path, width of both hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds, latest location, and projected path with cone of uncertainty for that path. All the info anyone needed.

I suspect in many cases people read into those maps what they want to see. Add in a common lack of basic map reading and geographic literacy.

Finally, when it comes to weather, even smart educated people seem to completely forget the most elementary statistical concepts. I spent my career in the oil industry, working with smart, highly educated geologists, engineers, and geophysicists. I vividly recall one day when I was leaving the office, on a partly cloudy but otherwise pleasant afternoon. One of my co-workers grumbled "...the weatherman always gets it wrong!" I asked what was the problem? He replied "They said it was a 60% chance of rain today!" I said "Well yes, but that also means a 40% chance it won't rain." He gave me a dirty look and stomped off.


Edited by AKSAR (09/12/17 07:45 PM)
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"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#286161 - 09/12/17 07:57 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: AKSAR]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
http://temblor.net/hurricane-insights/wh...urricanes-5036/

This is a thoughtful discussion of what may be in store for the planet as current trends continue. We can expect Harvey and Irma's close friends and relatives to come calling ......(or storm the portals, perhaps?)
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Geezer in Chief

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#286162 - 09/12/17 09:46 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: AKSAR]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 788
Loc: wellington, fl
Originally Posted By: AKSAR


I suspect in many cases people read into those maps what they want to see. Add in a common lack of basic map reading and geographic literacy.

Finally, when it comes to weather, even smart educated people seem to completely forget the most elementary statistical concepts.


Well said. I worked with the planning department staff in a rural NY in the eighties. They were skilled at using the emerging field of computer based graphic analysis to explain complex issues to the elected officials there. I was impressed with their ability to craft graphs and charts that accommodated the supervisors' lack of map reading and statistical skills. I imagine that the Times does a better job of this than local television producers; sadly most of the population doesn't read...the Times.
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Dance like you have never been hurt, work like no one is watching,love like you don't need the money.

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#286164 - 09/13/17 12:17 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: hikermor]
LesSnyder Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1454
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
hikermore...next time I'll rely more on the generators.. I have an older Honda that was repowered (Honda) and a Chinese inverter genset... both worked well...one hour every six seems about correct to keep the refrigerator cold... I still will freeze a couple of gallon jugs to help with the cold mass, and be able to transfer to the extended cooler if necessary

it is good to know that a 1928 built frame house can handle 90+

I need a better way to handle charging cell phone and eneloops... something like a dedicated power strip... the 3xAA Black Diamond head lamp, and the single AA SolarForce Z2 (stayed in my pocket) worked above and beyond

stored water + a case of bottles, cooking technique (water bath to cook individual cans without burning), propane stoves, preps went without a hiccup... a couple of deli sandwiches, PBJ, found I can pour boiling water through the Mr Coffee and get a hot cup...need to store some junk food, a cold can of Coke sure tasted good and a couple of candy bars will be added

I had ignored the charging of a 12v trolling motor battery and when needed did not work... will not rely on one again...battery powered radio worked (AA Eneloop)

the synthetic Rawlings athletic shirts were life savers working in the heat and humidity... high vis colors a benefit

commented a couple of times, but the hitch ball on the lawnmower and utility trailer for clean up and to ferry the generator to neighbors

day 2 power still out

my D cell tent fan to spin the ceiling fan makes it bearable when you are used to A/C

query your questions and comments

thanks for everyone's support

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#286165 - 09/13/17 12:25 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
Jeanette_Isabelle Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1557
Loc: North Central Florida
Originally Posted By: LesSnyder
it is good to know that a 1928 built frame house can handle 90+

That's impressive.

Jeanette Isabelle
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"A grain of wheat must fall to the ground before it can do any good. New life springs from fallen grain." -- Fleda Claes Johansson

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#286167 - 09/13/17 12:55 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
Do you have any notion of how many hurricanes your 1928 house has experienced? I would image Irma was not the first one....

For charging cell phones and Eneloop batteries, I am planning to rely on solar panels and a variety of power banks. I have used these on field projects and they seem promising. I am also happy with the various inflatable "Luci" solar lights that are available. They have worked well for me and they are fairly cheap....
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Geezer in Chief

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#286168 - 09/13/17 01:42 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
LesSnyder Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1454
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
my family has owned the house since 1955, so Donna in 1962 was my first... I inherited it after the passing of Mom and Dad...it is hard to tell the actual wind speed without an anemometer... the posted 90+ is from Doppler radar... IIRC we had gusts of 125 measured from Donna a couple of miles nearer the Gulf ... the trees really do their job of knocking down the wind... and IIRC we were on the western side of the eye for Donna also... thankfully not that much rain... 10" or so


Edited by LesSnyder (09/13/17 01:44 AM)

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#286172 - 09/13/17 04:11 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5921
Loc: southern Cal
I can't but help thinking about lessons from these recent hurricanes that might apply to the big potential disaster in my neck of the woods - earthquakes.

A big quake will really disrupt the infrastructure and the grid, just as these hurricanes did. Plan for three weeks of self-sufficiency, not a piddling three days. This is probably true for other large scale disasters, as well.

Even in the best of circumstances, don't utterly depend upon outside help. It will probably be you and your neighbors, especially right at first. Think through and discuss at least a general strategy.
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Geezer in Chief

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#286177 - 09/13/17 11:20 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: hikermor]
Montanero Online   content
Old Hand

Registered: 10/14/08
Posts: 1115
Loc: North Carolina
Originally Posted By: hikermor
I can't but help thinking about lessons from these recent hurricanes that might apply to the big potential disaster in my neck of the woods - earthquakes.

A big quake will really disrupt the infrastructure and the grid, just as these hurricanes did. Plan for three weeks of self-sufficiency, not a piddling three days. This is probably true for other large scale disasters, as well.

Even in the best of circumstances, don't utterly depend upon outside help. It will probably be you and your neighbors, especially right at first. Think through and discuss at least a general strategy.


Here, here!

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#286178 - 09/13/17 11:51 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
airballrad Offline
Gear Junkie
Enthusiast

Registered: 10/22/07
Posts: 243
Loc: Gulf Coast Florida, USA
We came through Irma almost entirely unscathed. We lost power for about 23 hours, and for most of this we were up and running on a standby generator.

Lessons learned:

Make sure you have spare consumable parts and a troubleshooting plan for the generator BEFORE the storm. Then when it kicks on as the power fails I won't spend a couple hours running around in the rain and rising wind trying to get the electricity going to the right place (yes, it was that one breaker I hadn't checked).

Have plenty of spare hardware for the hurricane shutters. I had plenty for me, but had to scrape and scrounge to help a neighbor.

Otherwise, I think things went well. Much of this can be attributed to Irma arriving in my neck of the woods as a Cat 2 rather than 4, but also because my preps were timely and comprehensive, and the previous owner of this house planned well too.
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#286179 - 09/13/17 12:11 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: airballrad]
wildman800 Online   content
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2800
Loc: La-USA
Bravo Zulu!!!!
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QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#286180 - 09/13/17 12:45 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: wildman800]
airballrad Offline
Gear Junkie
Enthusiast

Registered: 10/22/07
Posts: 243
Loc: Gulf Coast Florida, USA
Originally Posted By: wildman800
Bravo Zulu!!!!


Thank you!

I will say it was surreal watching as a typically laid-back area, which has not seen a storm of this size in 55 years, lose its collective mind trying to get supplies and equipment at the last minute. As the winds picked up there were still people looking for plywood. All of the stores were closed 24 hours before the storm arrived, and no one seemed to know what to do without Wal Mart open and functional.
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EDC Bag | PSK

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#286181 - 09/13/17 01:00 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
wildman800 Online   content
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2800
Loc: La-USA
That tells me how most people would react if and when there was an EMP event.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#286189 - 09/13/17 06:14 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2175
More solar gear for me ( see realated post)

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#286518 - 09/29/17 01:02 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2175
Watching P.R., I am now extending my planning to at least 7 days maybe ten.
100 gals of water in reserve.

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#286524 - 09/29/17 03:50 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
LesSnyder Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1454
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
TeacherRO... lessons learned from 2004/2005 tropical season with a 9 day power outage caused some major changes in my plans...at the time I was still working, didn't have a generator, and simply trying to sleep in a 85-90F house and still get up a 0600 was a challenge... even had to find my old college wind up alarm clock...

I'm retired now, so have a different perspective on the situation...but still learning... had Irma moved another 75miles west before turning north, I would have faced a much different situation

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