What are the priority nuclear targets in any country?

Priority 1: Strategic military installations(missile launch facilities, communications centers, command centers, 5,000 ft or longer runways, etc)

Priority 2: State capitals, major terrestrial transportation junctions (Rivers, canals, interstates, railroads)

Priority 3: Tactical support bases

I've listed these off the top of my head. There are quite a few more in each of the priority lists, help me out and list what I missed.

N. Korea can get two disasters for the price of one if a rocket sets off a chain reaction creating an earthquake.

Jeanette Isabelle

Population centers are sometimes listed as targets. Certainly military facilities and key pieces of infrastructure (eg dams, bridges, power plants, etc).

"Here are the US targets North Korea most likely wants to nuke," Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-likely-nuclear-targets-us-icbm-2017-7

Under present circumstances, I feel that one could easily "over think" what the exact target might be.

It remains to be seen how accurate hastily developed missiles will be. I consider it probable that the target might well be "America" rather than a particular bridge, dam, power plant, or other strategic target.

Whilst we know that they have the bomb, and also have long range missiles, it is possible that bombs small and light enough to be delivered by missile are not yet available.

Other modes of delivery exist including a Bomb delivered by cargo ship and onward by a trucking firm, or a Bomb dropped from a modified civilian airliner on an apparently legitimate flight to a USA airport. Or a short range missile fired from a ship.

N. Korea has its state-run airline. Does anyone know if any of their flights go to the U.S.? If so, all N. Korea has to do is load a bomb aboard one of their planes and detonate it when it reaches the U.S.

Jeanette Isabelle

I seriously doubt there are any flights to the US. i haven't noticed any "NukeAir" terminals at LAX recently, or Burbank either....

For N. Korea to have a "success", they only need to get a bomb to the mainland of the USA. I seriously doubt that their rockets have enough accuracy to hit pinpoint targets. Its more likely, therefore, that they would try to attack very large cities.

I agree with the comment above. They can use other means to carry a nuclear weapon. It's conceivable they could put a nuclear bomb in an airliner, a fishing vessel, a cargo boat, or a submarine. This is challenging for our Coast Guard and Navy - they must search everything. But its a much bigger problem for Asia, where N. Korean vessels sail regularly.

A North Korean trawler, with a nuclear bomb hidden aboard, is probably a much bigger threat than an ICBM. Or for that matter, N. Korea could take an old cargo vessel with markings from another country such as China, and use that vessel as a weapon.

Interesting map, but don't think for a minute that picture was released without the N.Koreans aware those targets were showing. Those listed were obvious, a major west coast naval base, a B-52 base in Louisiana and the nation's capitol. What additional targets were not shown on the map? I can think of a number off the top of my head.

That said, close counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and nuclear weapons. By that measure, I'm "close" to one of the targets listed; I'm not concerned. THAAD and Aegis anti-ballistic missile systems currently deployed are real.

EMP is more of an area weapon so targeting isn't so critical.

Heck, even if the thing accidentally detonates on the launch pad it won't set N Korea back very much compared to a western civilization that uses electronics and electric lighting.

The old joke from the Vietnam War error, we'll bomb them back to the stone age because it's very far from where they already were then.

Same thoughts. Seattle (Puget Sound, Bangor), Santa Barbara (Vandenberg), and Los Angeles(Major hub airport and sea port)come to mind.

EMP is a bit of an odd duck. Because of the physics involved, it actually does the most damage further out from the detonation. Because of the technological dependency of the US, and the ability to detonate a ways out, that's probably going to be the opening move. How much warning it gives us when the various communication nets go down is anybodies guess.

No warning whatsoever. EMP travels at the speed of light, only slowing down when it hits resistance which would be something to take out. The real question is how well does the EM energy couple to the various devices that are vulnerable to being taken out.

Not all cars/trucks are the same and just because it's new tech doesn't necessarily mean it's an easy kill. The EM needs a way into the system and for a car on the road not hooked up to the grid the actual amount of EM energy is not that much per square meter. The national electric grid has these very long antennas which we refer to as power lines. That's why most of the destruction would be done to the grid itself and electronics attached to the grid.

A lot of folks have solar systems on their roof and while they may be susceptible individually, most are also hooked up to the grid. After an event those solar systems are toast.

An AM/FM/SW radio with an antenna deployed is inviting the EM energy in so it might be good to have a back-up or three; AM/FM battery powered radios are cheap. I keep my back-up radios in a steel ammo can. That said, what will you listen to?? I'll bet most radio/TV/cable stations are hooked up to the grid; when they go down, the national ham radio network will be pretty much all that remains in the short term. On that note, I need a VHF scanner for finding local ham transmissions.

Whilst it is well to be prepared for an EMP attack, this is only likely if a nuclear weapon is detonated at high altitude.

EMP is more or less line of sight, so for nuclear explosion near ground level the effect is very local, and probably largely confined to the area already substantial destroyed by the explosion.

A large scale EMP attack would effectively end the modern age.
I would not expect ANY consumer electronics to survive unless unusually well shielded.
Nor would I expect any modern vehicles to run unless they happened to be parked deep underground at the time.

There is no advance warning of an EMP attack, as has already been said it moves at the speed of light.

Per the Soviet 1965 Plan, they were going to NuDet 5 "weather" satellites that councidentally would be stretched across the country from Los Angeles to Maine.

Such plans have been around for a long time.

If religious extremism is the motivation behind an attack, population density will enter into the equation. Example: a nuclear missile could be launched against a densely populated area of Israel from another part of the middle east.

Jeanette Isabelle

And that's why the Israeli's keep such tight border control and have developed the Iron Dome anti-missile system, among many other aspects of their security system.

NK has everything to lose and nothing to gain if they attack the US. Nuclear weapons are predominantly a way of securing the safety of your people from invasion. Look at Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein. If they had nukes we would have never overthrown Gaddafi or charged into a war with Hussein. Iran and NK's race to nukes are a direct response to this history.

No, these countries have been pursuing nuclear weapons for much longer than that, and not in response to events in Iraq and Libya.

Communications centers should be the priority. Satellite comms will be quickly overloaded. After that, power centers, particularly nuclear power plants and hydroelectric. The advantage of going after hydro power is that there is the added "benefit" of potential catastrophic flooding. Further, the nuclear plants could cause a Chernobyl-type event. This is a bad thing to be thinking about. It makes me anxious. I better go eat a piece of cake.

Montanero, you got that right. Loads of countries have been wanting to "join the club" and have done everything they can to do so for the decades you mentioned - scary business.

It's a moot point at this stage. With the latest nuke test on Sep 2, 2017 N. Korea has pushed its bombs up to 100 Kiloton (give or take). This is a very powerful weapon. Can be used against entire cities, and would do tremendous damage. I doubt that they have the ability to put this bomb on a rocket yet. But I really don't think that the world will let this arms development continue.

Unless China has an unlikely change of heart regarding cutting off oil, food & other trade until NK halts its atomic weapon / missile programs, the world will have to live with NK as a nuclear power.

Alternatively, military options might succeed in the long run, but not without, at the least, the destruction of Seoul SK and 20-30million casualties and U S participation in another "Police Action" ( aka: War) on the Korean Peninsula. Baaad Idea! Military decapitation/ counter force ops might even end up in a general war.

Soooooo...... ( I cannot believe I'm about to say this), the best prep may be to quietly tell China that failing NK freezing said programs, we are going to GIVE SK and Japan their own atomic weapons, to insure a type of MAD ( mutually assuered destruction), hot peace. The conversation would include a hard date on which we would commence our atomic gift.

This would be a quiet announcement, initially privately delivered, perhaps a secret Tillerson trip to China, a la Kissinger. It would not be a Twitter tirade or a beilicose public threat.

Even if that threat doesn't work at halting NK, MAD has worked for almost 70 years. China and Korea fear Japan, with good historical reasons. China might even fear the possibility of a nuclear armed Japan/SK, enough to take some real actions to control NK. If not, MAD should still work. Anything is better than the U S getting into another land war in Asia

Sometimes smart prepping includes an asymmetrical collective national defense.

It won't be easy to convince Japan to accept becoming a nuclear power. They're pretty anti-nuke and committed to pacifism. Of course and existential threat from DPRK might nudge them a bit.

Japan is much more likely to be convinced to house anti-ballistic missile systems. They have decent relationships with both the US and Isreal, who have ABM technology, and I can't see much conflict with pacifistic philosophy.

Iron Dome seems to be a pretty effective system. Something like that may be useful in Japan. The good thing from their perspective is that their country isn't that large (ie not a lot of territory to protect). On the other hand it's a short flight by missile from DPRK.

Israel only uses Iron Dome for close in atmospheric air defense. They have the arrow 3 missile for ABM defense . A hypersonic, hypermanuvable, interceptor that hits incoming targets in space.

Asian news sources are already speculating about Japan buying a couple of the Arrow 3 systems.

http://www.atimes.com/article/japan-need-israeli-arrow-3-interceptor-missile/

Cool stuff!

"Asian news sources are already speculating about Japan buying a couple of the Arrow 3 systems."

A very good idea.
They need to buy more than just a "couple". :-)

Sounds like our missile defense shield is only 50/50, at best. http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/09/no-we-cannot-shoot-down-north-koreas-missiles/141070/

Related. What the USA may do in the next war with NK.

In a secret underground base, Command Post Tango, the combined headquarters of the U.S.-South Korean command, is abuzz with activity. North Korean artillery has pummeled sites around Seoul, leaving thousands of South Korean and American civilians and service members dead. A toxic combination of North Korean provocations and U.S. escalation has prompted the North to launch a last-ditch effort to seize the whole peninsula.

Put fears of full-blown nuclear war aside for a moment. We’ve never been closer to a conventional North Korean attack on South Korea, and I can attest that the U.S. military knows how devastating the consequences would be. We can expect a massive humanitarian crisis, enormous loss of life, and economic disaster. There’s almost no doubt that the North would lose – but in going down Pyongyang could take much of the Korean Peninsula with it.

We've never been closer to a North Korean attack on South Korea: Here's what could happen

I also think that the leader of N. Korea is the type of personality who would 'go for it' - attempt a surprise attack on S. Korea, Japan and Guam -if his back was to the wall. If they mount a surprise attack with chemical weapons (artillery shells), info sabotage (hacking), and possibly some nuclear weapons - I think that the damage and confusion on the Korean peninsula would be enormous.

But the author of the article (link posted above) has a very good point. N. Korea has no way to 'follow up' a surprise attack by re-supplying their own Army divisions when they cross the DMZ ... they can't even feed their own army inside their own country. Any surprise attack on S. Korea would fizzle extremely quickly. And then N. Korea would be wiped out.

But just the same ... the damage from chemical and nuclear contamination would be tremendous. Hope it never comes to this.

Their weapons are used primarily for extortion, which has worked well for them in the past. They over estimate their own influence, because we have always paid them off in the past, and underestimate the power of South Korea, Japan and the U.S.

The Demilitarized zone has protected the north more than the south for the last 2 or 3 decades. The South Korean Army is much better than that of the North.

North Korea is more like a mosquito. It can bite a little, but it is easier to squash than most people think.

Montanero, certainly pertinent comments. My experience with 'Frozen Chosen' dates from 1961. Serving in the 1st Cav, I made one trip to Panmunjom.

I remember South Korean soldiers as being basically in better shape than most of the US troops, who were comparatively plump and soft.

This post is tangential to the debate at hand, and yet may be remarkably relevant. It's hard to think of a better place for it.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017...dies-at-age-77/



It is hard to imagine, but this Soviet colonel's quiet courage and common sense is, quite possibly, the reason we have the luxury of having this discussion today. Naturally, he was censured and lived in poverty for his actions. The world recently learned that he passed away this year.

Thank you, Stanislav Petrov. The world hasn't improved much, and people not at all, but I hope the world we try to build will be a worthy legacy for you.

agree. he was one of the lifesavers who stopped the Cold War from going into a real Hot War. it took some cool judgment and a lot of common sense - he saved the world.

One thing not discussed here ... WHAT exactly would the USA do to broadcast a warning (to its own citizens), if there was an inbound missile coming at the mainland (CONUS)? If you look at Japan, they have activated sirens and an emergency warning system for their population, each time the N. Koreans have launched a missile over their homeland. It's a pretty good idea.

But it's not clear at all - how the USA would advise its own citizens about an inbound missile threat. No-one has practiced the drills. It's possible that the country would use the standard emergency-warning system over public radio. That system still exists and is tested regularly. But what exactly would a real warning message say? Since the system has never been activated in an "air defense mode", it's not clear that the public would believe or respond to a real warning ... if a REAL-TIME LIVE warning message came through.

I am surprised that the mayors of large cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have not clarified this. The inertia in the system is amazing. "It can't happen here."

We no longer have a real Civil Defense System in this country. Hawaii is now setting the example of reactivating the old fallout shelters in their state. The other states and territories need to do the same, IMO.

I agree Wildman. And just so you don't feel lonely ... I am borrowing your emergency preparation system and I am going to "NorthKorea-Con-1". Same thing that you did before Hurricane Harvey, but as a prep for possible war on the Korean Peninsula. I am on the West Coast of the USA, so we are a potential target zone for missiles. It's an "unknown" what N. Korea can really do to the mainland USA (or the Pacific Ocean), but I figure that some simple, standard precautions are sensible. So I am backing up my food pantry, getting more drinking water in the house (tap water will do), getting an emergency radio, will get some spare batteries, might get a solar panel for re-charging my phone.

There is no way to predict the future. But the situation on the Korean Peninsula is "going downhill" fast ... and it sure looks like the N. Korean gov't is not going to change direction.

Sorry but I just accidentally deleted half of my DefCon Checklist, but here is me ThreatCon Checklist:

ThreatCon Checklist
Updated 02Sep2017



5=definite threat possibility with no specific intel.
4=event could occur/start in 3 months - no specific intel.
3=event could occur/start in 1 month – no specific intel
2=event may occur/start in 2 weeks - specific intel (includes “special” dates)
1=event may or is occurring/specific intel or news of an incident


ThreatCon 5: Upon setting ThreatCon 5:
HSD (green) Low
MARSEC 1
DefCon 5
1) Have a “Family Plan” of what to do and where and how to meet in the event of an incident. Insure all family members are thoroughly briefed.
2) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 72 hours (3 days) sustenance/maintenance.
3) Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
4)

ThreatCon 4: Upon setting ThreatCon 4:
HSD (blue) Guarded
MARSEC 1
DefCon 4
1) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 144 hours (6 days) sustenance/maintenance.
2) Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
3)

ThreatCon 3: Upon setting ThreatCon 3: (This is the NORMAL level in the USA)
HSD (yellow) Elevated
MARSEC 1
DefCon 3
1) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 3 months sustenance/maintenance.
2) Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
3) Keep fuel tanks in vehicles above the Half Full mark.
4) Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are.
5) Lock and load weapons, safety engaged. Keep a firearm within easy reach, ready for immediate use.

ThreatCon 2: Upon setting ThreatCon 2:
HSD (orange) High
MARSEC 2
DefCon 2
1) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 6 – 12 months sustenance/maintenance.
2) Keep Family Members close to home. Know everybody’s whereabouts.
3) Keep fuel tanks in vehicles above the ¾ full level.
4) Top off stored gasoline (stabilized) cans and propane tanks.
5) Insure that proper supplies are on hand for special needs persons and for the pets.
6) Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are.
7) Arm yourself, locked and loaded, safety engaged. Be ready to use your weapon without delay.

ThreatCon 1: Upon setting ThreatCon 1:
HSD (red) Severe
MARSEC 3
DefCon 1
1) Consume foods in the freezer and refrigerator first.
2) Have all Family Members return or stay at home.
3) Top off vehicle fuel tanks, if it can be safely done.
4) Monitor the news/internet to determine the threat and subsequent events that must be guarded against.
5) Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are. Attempt to make agreements for mutual aid and defense.
6) Stay armed 24/7. Be ready to use deadly force.

ThreatCon 1CBR: (Chemical, Biological, Radiological)
1) Execute either the “Shelter-at-Home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
2) Get everyone home immediately.
3) When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
4) Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
5) Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
6) Get the Kearney Fallout Meter (KFM) online ASAP and begin monitoring.
7) Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.
8)

ThreatCon 1J: (Jihadists)
1) Execute either the “Shelter-at-home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
2) Get everyone home immediately.
3) Arm those that are capable and establish a watch of the property perimeter.
4) Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
5) When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
6) Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
7) Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.
8)


ThreatCon 1 C: (Civil Disturbances/Unrest)
1) Execute either the “Shelter-at-Home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
2) Get everyone home immediately.
3) Arm those that are capable and establish a watch of the property perimeter.
4) Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
5) When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
6) Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
7) Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.

If NoKo is a concern of yours, then I suggest that you gear some prep resources towards an EMP event. NoKo has 2 satellites in polar orbits that come right over the USA 2-4 times a day. Officially they are a type of observation type of platforms geared towards weather, crop growth, etc.

If you believe that, I suggest you find and read the opening strike for the Soviet plan to nuke us in 1965....

Wildman - agree with you that the threat would be an EMP event. Definitely.

Well ... looks like my timing was good. Based on new remarks from N. Korea today. This isn't going to take long to swing into full gear ...

-----------------------
NEWS, 25 SEP 2017:

North Korea's foreign minister said on Monday that U.S. President Donald Trump had declared war on North Korea and that Pyongyang reserves the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down U.S. strategic bombers even if they are not in the country's air space.

"The whole world should clearly remember it was the U.S. who first declared war on our country," Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York.

"Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country."

The Korean war never ended, it's just been on hold for 65 years. If the current Kim wants it to go hot again, that's on him.

One other thought -- in 1969 North Korea shot down an unarmed Navy reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace (100 NM off the coast) as a birthday present for un's grandfather, Kim Il-Sung.

Naval History Blog » Blog Archive » 15 April 1969: Deep Sea 129 Shootdown

Kim's threat of a shoot-down due to a renewed state a war rings hollow, as an active state-of-war has been shown to be unnecessary for the Kim's to shoot down US military aircraft.

it is difficult to know what either side will do in this situation. There is no point in N. Korea shooting down a US bomber, unless they also plan on launching all their missiles. However, personally, my judgment of Kim Jong-Un's personality is that there could be circumstances where he is willing to do this. He might believe his own hype ... that he can do serious damage to the mainland USA.

The essential point is this. This conflict would go nuclear very quickly. Both sides know this. And there is no such thing as "Second Place" in a nuclear war. Therefore ... this situation is highly unstable. It only takes a small mistake, or one aggressive reaction, and things can easily spiral into real war.

I don't believe in "living in fear" ... I am not changing my daily routine. but I am taking a few simple steps to be more independent ... more food in the pantry, extra water, etc.

.
Is there a "First Place" in nuclear war? Or is that the guy who loses the least... Rhetorical question. All my life until recently the point of nuclear weapons was to ensure the other guy would not use his and all the players were rational. Not so much these days.

Given the destructive power available, would anyone "win"? The novel "On the Beach" might come true....(movie as well....)

** "Is there a "First Place" in nuclear war? Or is that the guy who loses the least... Rhetorical question."

Good question.
Well I'll say this - there won't be a "first place" if the N. Koreans do actually succeed in detonating a nuclear bomb in the skies over the US mainland. We would survive as a nation, certainly, but it would shatter our belief about American invulnerability. I guess this is a part of the "gamble" that the Pentagon must weigh up ... what chance is there that this could happen?

** Given the destructive power available, would anyone "win"?
There could be a lot of losers in Asia, that's for sure. Could the US stop N. Korea without using nuclear weapons - and without major losses to S. Korea? You tell me. It's the $64,000 question.

Back to my original question.
Where are our Civil Defense plans??

I suppose the cobalt angle is a particularly unhinged possibility, but it would absolutely guarantee the end of the NK regime. The opinion of the entire world would swing. So I rather doubt it.

The more bluster out of NK, the more internal turmoil that makes it necessary. That's my wager.

But it's not NK that is an immediate threat to the Western world broadly, and I'm rather puzzled at the amount of click-bait ink being expended. I guess it's an easy story, and any speculation gets play.

I suppose the difference nowadays is that our leader frequently seems as unhinged as theirs. That at least gives the media an angle to push as they crank up the FUD that drives the 24 hour news cycle. There has to be a crisis to sell advertising, etc.

Still I don't think we're going to get into a nuclear shooting war with DPRK...but we will see.

IMHO, there would be no winners from an all out nuclear war, such as was feared in the past.
However I do not foresee a large scale nuclear war with NK. More likely is that the dear leader will launch a single weapon or at the very worst a handful of weapons against the USA or allies. Shortly afterwards I expect that NK will be attacked with devastating force and will effectively cease to exist.
In such a case one could reasonably state that NK had lost and that the USA had won.

An attack on the USA with even a single nuclear weapon could kill millions, or put in more optimistic terms, tens of millions would survive.
The disruption to utility services, government, and food or fuel supply could well be national, hence the need for preparations.
If you are too close to the bomb, then there is almost no hope of survival, but for millions a bit further away, survival might depend on what preps they had made.

Has anyone considered their approach to unexploded nuclear weapons?

I was told sometime ago that because of the extreme environment that warheads are exposed to that some third of them are expected not to explode and probably would remain intact on impact.

At a conference I asked a bomb disposal officer for New York how they would deal with them, his reply, "we have been told to kick them and if they don't go off cart them away"

I suppose if reentry and/or impact does not set off a warhead it may be presumed safe.

Just how robust are the triggers?

"At a conference I asked a bomb disposal officer for New York how they would deal with them, his reply, "we have been told to kick them and if they don't go off cart them away"

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!
Remind me not to apply for that job :-)

There have been a few aircraft accidents and other incidents where nuclear bombs have been involved, none detonated. To go critical, a nuclear warhead must be initiated in a very specific and precise manner.

With the velocity of a missile coming down, especially one that could reach the US from Korea, I doubt anything would survive the impact intact even if it did not detonate.

It is for this reason I made a checklist.

Jeanette Isabelle

Commonly known as a Broken Arrow.

The 1961 Goldsboro, North Carolina incident and 1950 British Columbia incident are 2 of the most well known. The 1950 incident here in my home province has provoked many theories over the years as to what exactly happened as opposed to the official sequence of events.

There are some YT videos that document many such incidents over the decades such as this one on the 1950 incident:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piDEE80nfgo