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#284102 - 03/27/17 10:23 PM Shaken,not stirred
hikermor Offline
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Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5871
Loc: southern Cal
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/s...5133&et_cid

An absorbing article about the possibility of interacting faults leading to bigger earthquakes albeit with the probability of "lesser" magnitude six events. Worth reading.....especially those of us along the West Coast.
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#284144 - 04/03/17 02:28 PM Re: Shaken,not stirred [Re: hikermor]
Pete Online   content
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Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1267
Hikermor ... thanks for posting. very interesting info. See the Wikipedia article about the 2016 quake in Kaikoura, New Zealand.

Personally, i think the calculations of quake probabilities are wrong ... on the low side. I would estimate that the chances for a major quake in the LA region in the next 5-10 years are 75%. And for the San Andreas, 95% in the next 25-30 years.

Geologists cant measure the energy stored in the Earth, before a quake happens. I think that is the missing factor. This is not a criticism of the scientists ... people cant measure what they cant see.

Pete


Edited by Pete (04/03/17 02:34 PM)

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#284146 - 04/03/17 06:05 PM Re: Shaken,not stirred [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5871
Loc: southern Cal
Surely earthquake prediction is one of the murkiest areas of inquiry. Your estimate is as good as mine.
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#284147 - 04/03/17 06:18 PM Re: Shaken,not stirred [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 4518
Loc: SOCAL
Considering that it's locked, the Cascadia Subduction Zone may be next and it may be big enough to trigger its California cousin to go too.

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#284148 - 04/03/17 06:47 PM Re: Shaken,not stirred [Re: Russ]
Pete Online   content
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Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1267
Russ

I agree with you completely.
Its very possible that the Cascadia quake will happen first. And also possible that the Cascadia event will trigger an event on the San Andreas. Or at least, the two quakes will be in a short-time period. Within 30 years.

One thing is certain.
Complacency in So. Cal residents has reached astronomical proportions :-)

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#284149 - 04/03/17 07:06 PM Re: Shaken,not stirred [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
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Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5871
Loc: southern Cal
Originally Posted By: Pete


One thing is certain.
Complacency in So. Cal residents has reached astronomical proportions :-)


Why do you say that? I am sure that many folks are unaware, but I don't know that the average is any higher than it has been....There are some signs to the contrary..

At least Russ and I are among the non-complacent, I think.
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