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#283998 - 03/05/17 01:43 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2698
Loc: La-USA
I have checklists for various situations here atcETS. Look them up and if you like them, modify it to your specific geography and situation....
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#283999 - 03/05/17 02:21 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: wildman800]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1342
Loc: Ocala FL
Look up what? I need more information to even be able to look it up.

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
"A grain of wheat must fall to the ground before it can do any good. New life springs from fallen grain." -- Fleda Claes Johansson

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#284000 - 03/05/17 02:43 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2698
Loc: La-USA
Here's 1 example, EQ Checklist:

As I mentioned on the Hurricane Thread, I am not remotely qualified to speak on this subject but I am intrigued....

I am thinking that trigger points may be based around strebgths and frequency of those EQ's that are occurring. Those in EQ areas are requested to consider my idea and then correct or modify those ideas with their actual knowledge and experience. Here's my start:

EQCon 5: 1's and 2's are regularly occurring (pressure is constantly being released).
EQCon 4: 3's and 4's occurrances have increased above normal levels of activity.
EQCon 3: 5's are being occasionally occurring and volcano's are beginning to rumble.
EQCon 2: 5's have increased in frequency, subsurface magma movement has been detected, volcano's are occasionally releasing steam and gases.
EQCon 1: Previous EQ Activity drops to a much lower level (pressure is building), subsurface magma movement continues, volcano's continue to rumble and release steam and other gases, EQ Activity on the western side of the Ring of Fire dramatically increases with 6's and 7's.

EQCon 5:
Continue to build and rotate basic EQ supplies.
Locate suitable storage places for supplies that provide the highest chance of EQ survivability and accessibility.
Get and maintain organization of personal and business papers, personal effects.
Develope "Get Home" and "Evacuation" plans for work and family.
Have the necessary tools on hand to secure gas lines.
Address medical needs of family as is possible.

EQCon 4:
Keep gas tanks in cars above the half full level.
Update family on "Get home", "Evacuation", and "a Rendezvous/Meet Up Location" Plans.

EQCon 3:
Keep GHB in work vehicle or at the place of employment.
Keep Bug Out Bags ready to grab and go.
Insure an adequate inventory of required medications are on hand and accessible.

EQCon 2:
Insure that family members make their planned whereabouts known on a daily basis.
Review EQ Plans with family again. Refine as needed.
Top off supplies as quickly as possible. Continue rotating supplies.

EQCon 1:
Either keep family local or take a long distance vacation...
Run a family EQ Drill on a monthly or quarterly basis.
Provide small BoB's for each family member for daily carry.

Post EQ response:
Gather all family members together at the Rendezvous Point.
Conduct damage survey of property and EQ Supplies
Contact friends and family to update and get updates as communications allow.
Contact Insurance Agent(s) as Communications are restored.
Report as able, utilities issues to local authorities and/or providers.

The biggest problem that I see with this checklist is that some conditions may go on for 1, 25, 100, or longer years as Geologic events move very slowly over great expanses of time. Per this checklist, California, Oregon, and Washington are mostly in EQCon 1. C'mon West Coasters, throw reality into this list and see if something useful can arise from it....
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#284001 - 03/05/17 02:51 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2698
Loc: La-USA
Here's an example of the Towboat Hurricane Checklist:

This checklist may be used by anyone and disseminated as wanted.

HurCon Checklist for M/V _____________________
Updated: 15JUN2015

5= Set during Hurricane Season (01Jun-01Dec)
4= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 72 hours (See Houston Port Condition WHISKEY)
3= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 48 hours (See Houston Port Condition X-RAY)
2= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 24 hours (See Houston Port Condition YANKEE)
1= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 12 hours or less (See Houston Port Condition ZULU)
HURRICANE SEASON: regular season "01June through 01December"

HurCon 5: Automatically set at the beginning of Hurricane Season (01Jun) and is automatically
secured at the end of the Hurricane Season (01Dec). Upon setting HurCon 5:

Update and top off inventory of groceries and supplies

Top off all 5gal gas cans (stabilized) for small boat
Maintain adequate amounts of Potable Water onboard

Update the Hurricane Contingency Plans

Review the plans with Shipmates.



HurCon 4: Set when expected landfall is within 72 hours and within range to affect the tow.
Upon setting HurCon 4:

Top off gas cans if possible.

Top off Fuel and Potable Water Tanks, if possible.
Go to the grocery store and top off the pantry with normal foodstuffs.

Insure that flashlights and lanterns are working.

Review Bug Out options based on storm strength, predicted landfall, host locations available,
likely storm path after landfall. Consult with Port Captain and Dispatch.

HurCon 3: Set when expected landfall is 48 hours away and is close enough to affect the tow.
Upon setting HurCon 3:

Walk the decks. Have everything on deck either lashed down or secured in the Rudder Room.

Top off fuel and Potable Water tanks, if possible.

Consult with Port Captain and finalize plans to either ride out the storm or to evade.

Lash down Park Bench to Fleet Deck.

HurCon 2: Set when expected landfall is 24 hours away and is close enough to affect the tow's
location. Upon setting HurCon 2:

Relocate the tow to the chosen location and tie off securely to what's available.

Secure all missile hazards on the deck. Lash down everything that is loose.

Batten down completely all weather doors and hatches.

Tie down all trash cans securely.

Bring down and stow all flags that aren't needed for safe navigation purposes.
Charge up all cell Phones, Laptops, Net Books, etc. Minimize usage. Set up a
Communications schedule with Port Capt.and keep electronics secured until needed
so as to save battery power.

Lash down all Barge Drip Pans securely.

Stow all barge fire extinguishers in Barge Dryboxes.

Secure all Barge Dry Boxes with a hand tight Nut & Bolt.

Relocate all coiled lines to Barge Shack or within the spill containment areas.

Stow barge trashcans in the Rudder Room.

Lash Cargo and Vapor Hoses down.

Lash Barge Spill Containers to stanchions

Properly secure Barge Booms in cradles.

Have crew wash and stow their laundry.


HurCon 1: Set 12 hours prior to expected landfall.

Visually monitor what the storm is doing, (from the safety of the Pilothouse), for
the duration of the storm.

Be prepared to grab Life Jackets and run to higher ground, if worse case scenario were to develope.

Pull Scupper Plugs on empty barges for the duration of the storm.

Place both MDE's and GEN's on the line for the duration of the storm.

Post-Hurricane Checklist

1) Once storm passes:

A) Assume HurCon V.

B) Conduct a damage survey of the boat and tow. Update the Port Capt and Dispatch. Wait until channels have been checked for sunken debris and reopened by the USCG.
C) Make basic repairs, as possible, to damaged areas of the boat and tow so as to prevent further
damage.

2) Store those items not needed and break out those items that are needed:

3)
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#284002 - 03/05/17 02:56 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2698
Loc: La-USA
Here's the Hurricane Checklist for my family:

This is my Hurricane Checklist tailored for my "reality". Everyone is welcome to copy this to your own file and tailor it to your needs.

HurCon Checklist

Updated 03Aug2011



5= Set during Hurricane Season (01Jun-01Dec)
4=Hurricane Force winds are expected within 72 hours

3= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 48 hours
2= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 24 hours
1= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 12 hours or less


HURRICANE SEASON: regular season C 01June through 01December

HurCon 5: Automatically set at the beginning of Hurricane Season (01Jun) and is automatically secured at the end of the Hurricane Season (01Dec). Upon setting HurCon 5:

Update emergency supply inventory

Top off all 5gal gas cans (stabilized)

Swap out all stored water

Update the Hurricane Contingency Plans

Review the plans with Household members.

Test run the generator for 30 mins.

HurCon 4: Set when expected landfall is within 72 hours and within range to affect the family. Upon setting HurCon 4:

Go to Home Depot and pick up a sufficient quantity of 2" deck screws (if in short supply), 1"x4" and 1"x12" pine boards to install shutters over the windows and doors (1"x4") that have them and to board up over the few windows that don't have shutters (1x12).

Keep the vehicle gas tanks above 1/2 tank levels.

Go to the grocery store and top off the pantry with normal foodstuffs.

Insure that all propane bottles are topped off.

Insure that battery supplies are sufficient.

Insure that flashlights and lanterns are working.

Check oil and run generator for 30 minutes to insure proper operation.

Get all the money we can get from the ATM 24 - 48 hours of a probable impact on our coast. (once the hurricane hits and leaves, everything is cash only, no money - no nothing for days)

Review Bug Out options based on storm strength, predicted landfall, host locations available, likely storm path after landfall.

HurCon 3: Set when expected landfall is 48 hours away and is close enough to affect the family. Upon setting HurCon 3:

Review checklists for any missing items or chores that remain to be done.

Top off all vehicle fuel tanks.

Decide on whether to Bug Out or to shelter in place; if Bugging Out - this is the time to leave. If Bugging Out C execute Nuclear War Survival Skills; Chapter 4/Evacuation.

HurCon 2: Set when expected landfall is 24 hours away and is close enough to affect the family location. Upon setting HurCon 2:

Prepare our Hurricane Shelter area within the house (the main hall next to the bathroom).

Secure all missile hazards in the yard. Tie down everything that needs tying down.

Install shutters or board up all windows and doors, except for 1 front door and 1 back door.

Top off all BOB's.

Gather all important documents, BOB, and firearms (the ones I plan to carry) and put it by the bed.

Set up a communications watch. Use 2 programs to monitor storm (Radio and T.V.) and then switch to wind up solar radio once power is lost.

Use cargo net to secure backyard storage building.

Charge up all cell Cell Phones, Laptops, Net Books, etc. Minimize usage. Set up a Communications schedule with relatives (if pertinent) and keep electronics secured until needed so as to save battery power.

HurCon 1: Set 12 hours prior to expected landfall.

Set up in the Hurricane Shelter (inside of my home) and start dealing cards.

Visually monitor what the storm is doing to the neighborhood (from the safety of the house), for the duration of the storm.

Be prepared to grab BOB's and run to higher ground, if worse case scenario were to develop.

Keep BoBs and important documents with each person until the storm has cleared the area.

Maintain the communications watch. Use 2 programs to monitor storm (Radio and T.V.) and then switch to wind up solar radio once power is lost.





Post-Hurricane Checklist

1) Once storm passes:

A) Assume HurCon V.

B) Conduct a damage survey of the property. Contact the insurance company to file a claim if needed.

C) Make basic repairs, as possible, to damaged areas of the property so as to prevent further damage.

2) Store those items not needed and break out those items that are needed:

A) Store cargo net from storage building.

B) Untie those yard items that were secured for windy conditions.

C) If power has been lost:

1) Set up the generator*, at least 20 feet from the house and chain it to something substantial, like a tree.

2) Set up a field kitchen on back patio or porch.

3) Set up a Sanitation Facility (Latrine).

3) Attempt to contact friends and relatives outside the storm affected area and let them know what your situation is. Establish a Daily Communications Schedule so as to conserve cell phone battery power. Remember that if your cell phone voice does not work, your texting capability probably will work.

4) *After setting up the generator and taking care of the above items, contact your immediate neighbors and see what their needs are. (especially elderly neighb
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#284005 - 03/05/17 04:43 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: wildman800]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5715
Loc: southern Cal
I like your list a lot, but I live in California and we don't do hurricanes here, we do earthquakes....

Currently, there is essentially no warning (This may improve in the future and we might have minutes to prep, which actually would be a significant improvement) so I judge it is best to set something like EQ 4 and live accordingly.

Keep the gas tanks at 1/2 full or better. Keep batteries stocked up. Remove mirrors from the ceiling, etc.

I probably need to put more effort into planning for the aftermath - cleanup, reconstruction, and the attendant sordid financial details....

Editnote: I just realized you had prepared an EQ checklist, which I have just hastily read. While seismologists can recognize fore shocks, as well as after shocks, these identifications come after analysis after the fact and therefore are of little practical, immediate value. Predictions are put forth. One recent one was something like: "There is a 15% probability of an m7 event along the southern San Andreas Fault within the next thirty years." Nice to know, but doesn't tell me that i should definitely put on my hardhat today.

The 1994 Northridge quake, for example, had absolutely no prior warning signs that were recognized beforehand - zero, zilch, nada.


Edited by hikermor (03/05/17 05:07 PM)
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#284007 - 03/05/17 05:54 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2698
Loc: La-USA
The only partially reliabilty in EQ forecasting is to read the Lost Pets section of a local newspaper everyday and count the number of ads. When the number of ads dramatically increase, one may expect an EQ within 72 hrs. The more dramatic the increase in ads, the stronger the EQ will be.

This was all figured out by Jim Berkley (sp?). A Geologist with the Orange County geological office. He's retired now but I think he wrote a book or two on the subject.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#284016 - 03/05/17 08:47 PM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: wildman800]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5715
Loc: southern Cal
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction

Good ol' Wikipedia has a pretty through examination of the subject of earthquake prediction. No mention of James Berkley and lost pets. Observers in Greece (BC era) observed animals fleeing a city prior to a major earthquake. Fluctuating well levels have also been proposed as predictors, along with lots of other phenomena.

An entity knows as earthquakeprediction.com is predicting a major earthquake in the San Francisco region TODAY. Pardon me if I don't hold my breath.
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#284022 - 03/06/17 01:21 AM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: wildman800]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5715
Loc: southern Cal
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-earthquake-20170302-story.html

Well,some earthquakes are somewhat predictable. This is an engrossing story about EQs triggered by rapidly rising water levels in their reservoirs...
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#284028 - 03/07/17 12:26 AM Re: Get Out of Dodge, Don't Forget Your Passport [Re: wildman800]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 977
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: wildman800
The only partially reliabilty in EQ forecasting is to read the Lost Pets section of a local newspaper everyday and count the number of ads. When the number of ads dramatically increase, one may expect an EQ within 72 hrs. The more dramatic the increase in ads, the stronger the EQ will be.

This was all figured out by Jim Berkley (sp?). A Geologist with the Orange County geological office. He's retired now but I think he wrote a book or two on the subject.
Unfortunately, theories that earthquakes can be predicted based on animal behavior have not panned out when subjected to cold, hard, statistical analysis. Despite decades of research, other attempts at earthquake prediction using other methods have also not panned out.

At the moment, the best that can been done is to say that a given fault segment is likely to rupture at some point in the future, and to provide some very loosely constrained numbers on how frequently that segment has ruptured in the past.

For a good readable discussion of the history of attempts at earthquake prediction, and some thoughts on whether we will or will not ever be able to predict earthquakes, I recommend Susan Hough's book Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction. Susan Hough is a seismologist at the United States Geological Survey in Pasadena, California, and scientist in charge of the office.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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