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#277763 - 11/30/15 04:20 AM Documentary: "Unprepared"
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1908
Loc: Washington, DC

This link below is to an hour-long documentary about Oregon's Cascade Subduction Zone threat, was produced by Oregon Public Broadcasting which aired it this fall. I thought it was very well done.

Much of the data was familiar (having read Oregon's 2013 "resiliency" plan) but video is the most powerful medium for conveying the CSZ peril. The segment on the petroleum "tank farm" near Portland was especially creepy. 95% of Oregon's petroleum and gas supplies come through that complex -- all of which is built on dredged soil which is certain to liquify when the earth shakes. The engineer that narrates that segment said that the gas people have in their tank when the earthquake begins is all they're going to have for at least a number of weeks afterward. Might want to get spare tires for the bicycle....

http://www.opb.org/news/article/watch-opbs-unprepared-documentary-teaser/



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#277765 - 11/30/15 04:14 PM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Dagny]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5999
Loc: southern Cal
Great reference, of use to those of us who presumably live in "more prepared" regions. I wonder how many Californians have 14 gallons of water stashed?
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#277826 - 12/02/15 04:06 PM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Dagny]
Jolt Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 11/15/10
Posts: 90
Loc: Maine
Just watched the trailer…yikes! Makes me glad I don't live there. I did notice they have a segment on the cargo bike disaster relief trials which I thought was cool.

ETA: Just watched the full documentary. Pretty disturbing, especially the part about the new seismically upgraded hospital being built right in the tsunami zone. That is one building that should be put in the safest area possible given that evacuating a hospital is very difficult and best avoided! Particularly in a situation where there is limited time.


Edited by Jolt (12/03/15 01:17 AM)
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#277836 - 12/03/15 02:46 AM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: hikermor]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1314
" I wonder how many Californians have 14 gallons of water stashed?"

NONE. Possible exception .. me. I've got quite a lot of H2O.

Won't do any good. the remaining 25 million Californians will just shoot me and take the water :-)


Edited by Pete (12/03/15 02:46 AM)

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#277841 - 12/03/15 02:32 PM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5999
Loc: southern Cal
Well, that makes two of us....I won't shoot
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#277846 - 12/03/15 06:31 PM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Dagny]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4018
Loc: Anchorage AK
It would seem the whole of the Pacific coast, from San Diego to anchorage, is at risk of unprecedented near term seismic activity of colossal scale. How do you engineer infrastrucutre for force 9+ events?
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#277847 - 12/03/15 07:41 PM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: benjammin]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5999
Loc: southern Cal
Here is a partial answer from the guys and gals who study this stuff professionally: http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/earthq3/safaultgip.html

Not sure it is "unprecedented:" Movement has been occurring for about 15-20 million years.
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#277873 - 12/05/15 04:44 PM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Pete]
brandtb Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 11/26/04
Posts: 249
Loc: S.E. Pennsylvania
Political comment redacted.



chaosmagnet


Edited by chaosmagnet (12/05/15 07:55 PM)
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#277892 - 12/08/15 04:21 AM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Dagny]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1314
"it would seem the whole of the Pacific coast, from San Diego to anchorage, is at risk of unprecedented near term seismic activity of colossal scale. How do you engineer infrastrucutre for force 9+ events?"

You don't. I suspect that you know this :-)

Here's my thoughts. First, I had a long personal discussion with a seismologist on this topic. Can earthquake faults link up and produce massive quakes? Her answer was No ... this does not happen. The ruptures are mostly small, random breaks at various locations around the world.

I remain skeptical about this. But I do understand that earthquake scientists must GO with the data that they've got. Science is not about speculation. And really, we have not been measuring earthquakes for very long. If our scientists had been collecting quake data for 50,000 years, their knowledge would be tremendously good.

I think that most of the time, the quakes probably are small random events. But I suspect that every once -and-a-while something much bigger can occur. It's just rare, and we haven't seen it yet. If I look at the southern San Andreas, there's a history of quakes every 100-150 years. Quakes in the range of 6.5 to 7.5, something like that. There have been about 8-9 quakes like that, going back over 1,000 years or so. We are now at a situation where the time delay has gone close to 300 years. I would have to go and check that data again. But it is VERY long compared to the normal pattern. There is a LOT of energy stored in the ground. My gut instinct tells me ... is it possible we can see something much bigger happen? Are we at the point where we could see a rare event, that only happens every few thousand years? Yeah - MAYBE. But of course, we don't know.

If a major rupture happens across ALL of California, or maybe part of California and all of Oregon, it will be one big mud patch out there :-)

But who knows?

Pete

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#277915 - 12/10/15 06:10 AM Re: Documentary: "Unprepared" [Re: Pete]
stevenpd Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 09/15/07
Posts: 81
Loc: SoCal
Wouldn't be me. I have over 3 times that and looking to take advantage of the upcoming El Nino too.
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